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Picks Go 2-1-2

 

Volume VII, Week 15

December 15, 2005

2005 Results

      

Week

Year to Date

%

Ben's Picks

+18

2-1-2 34-31-5 52%
Ben's Power Rating (BPR)

2-4-1

45-45-5

50%

 

Over/Unders

1-3 27-29-1 48%
Teasers 5-3 56-13 78%
HD's v Opposite Turf 2-1-1 12-18-1 40%
The Rant

      

        The Picks finished a profitable 2-1-1 last week and now have hit two weeks in a row. The winners included Cleveland, giving the Bengals all they could handle on the road. Charlie Frye is the new signal caller in Brownieville and it looks as though the Browns have found their QB of the future. Detroit also came up big for us on Sunday Night, or should I say Bret Favre came up big for us? Favre literally handed the Lions the early lead, then came back in the 4th quarter and Overtime to win the game. Everyone will be gushing about another 4th quarter comeback by the great one, but remember the bottom line folks, the Packers didn’t cover the spread. Keep up the good work Brett, we’re counting on you. The lone loser was a very disappointing Monday Night loss by New Orleans. I thought the Saints had one last game left in them and it looked like I was right after the 1st half, but they didn’t show up after intermission. It was as if someone turned the faucet off at half time, the Saints barely got a 1st down after that. We caught a break as the Cowboys came back for the ATS tie. Drew Bledsoe went on National radio this week chirping about how the Bills made a mistake by letting him go. Hey Drew, wake up, you’re a mistake waiting to happen. Just because your team caught a break last week, don’t go puffing out your chest. Yes, the Bills missed the playoffs without you, but they missed the playoffs with you the 2 previous years. Remember, Drew didn’t win those Superbowls at New England and, he never will. I sure hope Dallas makes the playoffs, because we’re going to make a lot of money betting against them. Lastly, was another come from behind ATS tie by Jacksonville. This result was especially galling because I outthought myself. The line was Jax +8.5 and I was holding out until the last minute, trying to get a 9. The waiting backfired as the line went back down to 8, turning a win into a tie. Who’da thunk that ½ point was going to matter? It did.

        The BPR again finished the week on a losing note going 2-4-1. That makes 4 weeks in a row the BPR has finished under .500. I am at a loss to explain why. Maybe it has something to do with all the favorites covering, or maybe something is drastically wrong. Hopefully, this is just a fluke that will clear itself up in the coming weeks. I sure hope so, if you can’t count on the #’s, who can you count on, Bret?

        The “Teasers” were a lackluster 5-3 last week, but are still an outstanding 78% for the year. The “HD’s v Opp-Turf” made a slight comeback last week going 2-1-1. It still sits at a very unprofitable 40% for the year. We are going to have to reevaluate this trend in the off season. The “O/U’s” took a step back going 1-3 and falling below 50%.

        Lastly, we are now entering the stretch drive of the season. It is imperative that before you place your wager you gage the mental preparedness of the team you are wagering on. Some teams still have everything to play for, but others have packed it in, or will begin resting their starters for the upcoming playoffs. Try to make sure your team is all out to win, or skip the play and wait for the playoffs. Thanks, Ben

 

 
Potential BPR Plays

    Remember compare the BPR [Ben’s Power Rating] to the spread and if there’s a difference of 4 points or more, in your favor, then that’s a potential play. Below are the potential plays for this week; I have already added the 4 points. (Check individual game BPR's for any  line movements):

 

  • Tampa +6 or greater
Loser
  • GIANTS -2.5 or less
WINNER
  • BUFFALO +5.5 or greater
Loser
  • MINNY +4 or greater
Loser
  • San Fran +4 or greater
WINNER
  • HOUSTON Even or +
WINNER
  • Jets +10 or greater
No Play
  • Dallas +4.5 or greater
No Play
  • DETROIT +5 or greater
Loser
  • Green Bay +4 or greater
No Play
  • CHICAGO -5 or less
WINNER

Total = 

4 - 4
 

Closing Lines and Final Scores

 
Ben's Picks

All trends are ATS (Against The Spread) unless otherwise specified.

Saturday at 1:30 EST

WINNER - 5* Tampa v NEW ENGLAND --- The Bucs settled an old score last week and finally beat up on the Panthers to move into a tie for first place. Chris Simms has settled in nicely at QB and his future looks much brighter than a month ago. This will be the Bucs 3rd straight road game and the first 2 were against division opponents. This game has letdown written all over it. Warm weather Tampa will also be traveling to blustery Foxboro to face a veteran team. The Pats rolled over the imploding Bills last week and are headed to another Division Title and home playoff game, as long as they take care of business. This team has ‘been there and done that’ and you’ve got to believe Bill Belichek has got something up his sleeve for the green Sims. New England is not the kind of team you want to show up for on a short week and especially on the road. Take New England and spot the points, the Bucs won’t know what hit them.

 

 

 

WINNER - 5* Pittsburgh v MINNY --- The Steelers made mincemeat out of the powerful Bears defense last week and pounded out a home win. Pittsburgh has faced a tough schedule the last month and has had to overcome a little speed bump, with Big Ben’s injured thumb. The Steelers are in a dogfight for a playoff spot and will not take this team lightly. Pittsburgh is still a very physical team and takes a step down in class here. The Vikings inserted Brad Johnson at QB and have won and covered their last 6 games. A closer look at those victories reveals a long list of losers, except the Giants. In the Giant game, the Vikings got the benefit of 3 returns for TD’s. That won’t happen here. The Vikings get taken down a peg. Take Pittsburgh.

 

 

 

Monday Night

WINNER - 5* Green Bay v BALTIMORE --- The Packers and their effervescent QB gave everyone a thrill last Sunday Night. Bret Favre made one of his “Patented” comebacks as the Cheese Heads beat the Lions in Overtime. The thing that everyone forgets when Mr. Favre is up to his old tricks is, he’s the one who put them in the hole in the first place. The bottom line here is, THE PACKERS DID NOT COVER THE SPREAD! The next time you here all those bouquets thrown Mr. Favre’s way, don’t forget the bottom line, did he cover the spread? What Baltimore does this game has no importance at all, Favre has been tanking it all year, why would he stop here? Take Baltimore and enjoy watching Mr. Favre throw the bouquets to the guys in the purple jerseys. The only question here is, how many bouquets is it going to take to assure a Ravens victory?

 

 

 

Loser - 4* Dallas v WASHINGTON --- The Cowboys got their break of the year against the Chiefs last week. Dallas needed an extra set of downs, inside the 5 yard line, and a last second missed field goal, to get the win over K.C. Drew Bledsoe has been eating up all the attention, but the Cowboys are winning despite Mr. Bledsoe, not because of him. Dallas still has a realistic shot at the playoffs and this game is a rematch of the Monday Night game the Cowboys handed the Redskins. Revenge is in the air. The Redskins went to Arizona and needed a run back TD to overcome the downtrodden Cardinals. Not very impressive. Washington still has an outside playoff shot, but must win out and get some help. This game is about as close to a playoff game as you can get. The bottom line here is, the Cowboys are 13-2 ATS against the Redskins and shouldn’t have lost the earlier one this year. Take Dallas and the points, this one goes down to the wire.

 

 

 

WINNER - 4* Cincy v DETROIT --- The Bengals barely got by the Browns last week, taking them a little to lightly. Cincy sits atop their division at 10-3, but still must seal the deal. The Bengal offense slowed down a little bit last week, but this Lions team will remedy that situation. Bret Favre tried to literally hand the game to the Lions last week, but the boys in Honolulu Blue are so pathetic, they couldn’t take advantage. Detroit has fallen apart right before our eyes, their coach is gone and their GM is soon to follow. The word out of Detroit is, the fans are going to stage a “Fire Millen” march and everyone is going to wear Bengals orange as a form of protest. It’s pretty bad when your own fans are rooting against you. Take Cincy and spot the points, the Lions have nothing and no one to play for, a blowout.

 
Total = 4 - 1 for +15*
 
The O/U's

 

  • K.C. v GIANTS OVER
Loser
  • Pitt v MINNY UNDER
WINNER
  • Jets v MIAMI UNDER
Loser
  • Philly v ST. LOUIS UNDER
WINNER

Total = 

2 - 2
 
Teasers

  (Teasers MUST include key numbers: 3, 6, 7, 10, 14, etc.)

 

  • NEW ENGLAND Even
WINNER
  • K.C. +10
No Play
  • BUFFALO +14
WINNER
  • Seattle -2.5
WINNER
  • Jets +14
WINNER
  • Carolina -3
WINNER
  • Cincy -3
No Play
  • Cleveland +10
No Play

Total = 

5 - 0
 
HD's v Opp-Turf

 

  • BUFFALO
Loser
  • MINNY
Loser
  • TENNESSEE
WINNER

Total = 

1 - 2
   

Closing Lines and Final Scores

 
The Skinny

Legend is available below.

 

NFL WEEK #15

SATURDAY DECEMBER 17, 2005

Potential BPR Plays in Bold

EST

Line

BPR

Play If

Notes – Trends ATS (Against The Spread)

301 Tampa Bay Bucs

1:30

35

 

+6

9-4 SU / 3-1 / 1-5 O-U / 3-0 D 3.5 to 7 / B2B2B R/ DT?

302 New England Pats

4

-2

+2

8-5 SU / 7-6 / 12-5 HF 3.5 to 7 / 15-5 in Dec /

303 Kansas City Chiefs

5:00

45.5

 

+10.5

8-5 SU / 8-4 / 3-3-1 R / B2B R / 14-2 O-U in Dec /

304 New York Giants

3

-6.5

-2.5

9-4 SU / 5-2 / 4-3 O-U H / 3-0 v K.C. / SAND / LB, SS?

305 Denver Broncos

8:30

9

-1.5

+2.5

10-3 SU / 8-4 / 4-2 R / 5-1 O-U R / 2-1 O-U v Buf

306 Buffalo Bills

35

 

+5.5

4-9 SU / 1-3 / 4-3 H / B2B H / 10-0 aft N.E. / QB ?

 

SUNDAY DECEMBER 18, 2005

307 Pittsburgh Steelers

1:00

3

 

+4

8-5 SU / 7-6 / 1-3 / 4-2 R / 0-6 )-U R / CB ?

308 Minnesota Vikings

41

Even

+4

8-5 SU / 8-5 / 6-0 SU + ATS / B2B H / 3-8 O-U / 5-1 H/

309 San Diego Chargers

1:00

51

 

+11.5

8-5 SU / 8-4-1 / 2-4 O-U R / 6-1 O-U v Indy / 4-1-1 R /

310 Indy Colts

7.5

-7.5

-3.5

13-0 SU / 9-3-1 / 3-3 H / Clinched, Will they rest ? /

311 San Fran Niners

1:00

37

 

+4

2-11 SU /5-8 / 0-3 / 1-5 R / 4-1 O-U R /

312 Jacksonville Jags

14.5

Even

+4

9-4 SU / 7-4-2 / 2-2-1 H / Need W

313 Seattle Seahawks

1:00

7

-7.5

-3.5

11-2 SU / 8-5 / 3-3 R / 6-2 O-U R / 0-3 O-U v Tenn

314 Tennessee Titans

45

 

+11.5

4-9 SU / 5-8 / B2B H / 2-6 / Bad Secondary

315 Arizona Cardinals

1:00

1

 

+8.5

4-9 SU / 4-8-1 / 2-4 R /

316 Houston Texans

43

-4.5

Even

1-12 SU / 1-5 H / 7-1 Dec / 2-13 O-U Dec / 1st Pick?

317 New York Jets

1:00

35.5

 

+10

3-10 SU / 4-9 / JETS 17 – Miami 7, Sept 18 / 0-7 R /

318 Miami Dolphins

8.5

-6

-2

6-7 SU / 5-8 / Bounce DOWN / REV / 2-8 O-U v Jets /

319 Carolina Panthers

1:00

8.5

-9.5

-5.5

9-4 SU / 3-2-1 R / Bounce UP/ REV / 4-0 R v N.O/ DE?

320 New Orleans Saints

at Baton Rouge, LA.

41

 

+13.5

3-10 SU / 2-4 / Saints 23 – CAROL 20, Sept 11 /

3-13 H v Div / 5-7-1 / Aft Mon /

321 Dallas Cowboys

4:15

35.5

 

+4.5

8-5 SU / 3-3 R / 13-2 v Wash / REV /

322 Wash. Redskins

3

+3.5

7-6 SU/ 2-0/ Wash 14 – DALLAS 13, Sept 19 / 3 CB ?

323 Cincy Bengals

4:00

7.5

-1

+3

10-3 SU / 5-0-1 R / 5-2 v NFC / 2-0 v Detroit /

324 Detroit Lions

44.5

 

+5

4-8 SU / 2-5 / 3-3-1 H / RB, LB ?

325 Cleveland Browns

4:00

40

 

+6

4-9 SU / 6-1 / 3-6 / Bounce DOWN / B2B R / 2-9 O-U /

326 Oakland Raiders

3

-2

+2

4-9 SU / 5-8 / 1-5 / 2-4 H / QB ?

327 Philly Eagles

1:00

43.5

 

+8.5

5-8 SU / 4-9 / 1-5 R / 2-5 O-U v Rams /

328 St. Louis Rams

3.5

-4.5

Even

5-8 SU / 4-9 /1-4 / 2-4 H / 0-2 O-U / 3-1 SU v Philly /

329 Atlanta Falcons

8:30

30.5

 

+13

8-5 SU / 3-3 R / 2-4 O-U R / Aft Mon / Vick ? /

330 Chicago Bears

3

-9

-5

9-4 SU / 8-4-1 / 5-2 H / 3-0 v ATL / 0-3 O-U v ATL /

 

MONDAY DECEMBER 12, 2005

331 Green Bay Pack

9:00

33

Even

+4

3-10 SU / 5-8 / 0-4 / 3-9 O-U /

332 Baltimore Ravens

3

 

+4

4-9 SU / 5-8 / 2-4 / 1-3 O-U / 0-6 O-U H /

 

 

Information Purposes Only - Not Intended For Anyone Under 21 Years of Age

The Legend

ATS – Against Spread

aft - after

bfr - before

[BPR] - Ben’s Power Rating

B2B – Back To Back

BOUNCE – Opp. result

D – Dog

Def - defense

DDD – Double Digit Dog

DDF - Double Digit Favorite

DIV - Division

F – Favorite

L - Loss

SAND - Sandwich game

 

H – Home

HD – Home Dog

HF – Home Favorite

HOME TEAM – In Capitals

LW – Last Week

LY – Last Year

N-DIV - Non Division

O/U – Over /Under

OFF – Offense

R – Road

REV – Revenge

SU – Straight Up

V - Versus

W - Win