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Picks 4-1 Last Week

9-4-2 Run for +22*

 

Volume VII, Week 16

December 22, 2005

2005 Results

      

Week

Year to Date

%

Ben's Picks

+33

4-1 38-32-5 54%
Ben's Power Rating (BPR)

4-4

49-49-5

50%

 

Over/Unders

2-2 29-31-1 48%
Teasers 5-0 61-16 79%
HD's v Opposite Turf 1-2 13-20-1 39%
The Rant

      

        The Picks were blazing hot last week, going 4-1, and hitting on all three 5 plays. That makes a three week run of 9-4-2 and +22. I like it, and hopefully we can keep it up through the playoffs. The lone loser was Dallas, hitting a brick wall in Washington. The Skins got their pass rush going and Drew Bledsoe never had a chance. The winners included New England, taking out the trash, in a rare Saturday afternoon shutout of Tampa. Don’t look now, but the Pats are starting to hit their stride, right in time for the playoffs. Make no mistake about it, no one wants to face this team in the postseason, especially Indy. Pittsburgh sacked up and rolled over the Vikings, right in the Dome. The Vikings are playoff imposters, after feeding on cupcakes and the Steelers know it’s now or never. Cincy came through for an easy win, the Bengals were spotting 10, on the road, but even their own fans don’t want the Lions to win. Last, but certainly not least, was a Monday night laugher, as the Ravens accepted several bouquets thrown their way, as I predicted, by Green Bay QB Bret Favre. It was a 48-3 joke and Bret should do himself a favor and take his Golden Parachute to Mississippi and stay there. His last 5 games have been especially pathetic and even his longtime fans are beginning to question his effectiveness. The funny part about the whole matter is, people see his poor play as proof that his skills are diminishing. The truth of the is, there’s absolutely nothing wrong with Bret, and he’s doing exactly what he wants to do, NOT COVER THE SPREAD! Thanks Bret, I’d say I owe you one, but you owe a lot more to the people you’ve hoodwinked the last few years. Personally I hope he doesn’t retire, I could always use the extra money.

        The BPR finally had a breakeven week, going 4-4. This is a far cry from previous years and a major disappointment. The winners included the Giants, San Fran, Houston and Chicago. The losers were Tampa, Buffalo, Minny and Detroit. The Jets, Dallas and Green Bay were not considered plays, because the closing line did not meet our needed number. This last 2 weeks should be especially rough on the BPR because several teams have clinched their playoff spots and other teams have nothing to play for. Week’s 16 and 17 look more like preseason games not regular season. Be careful.

        The Teasers came roaring back last week, posting a strong 5-0 showing. That makes a 61-16 record and 79% winners. Remember teaser plays breakeven at about 71%, but 79% is still very impressive, even if I do say so myself. The O/U’s plodded along at 2-2 and the HD’s had another losing week going 1-2.

        It’s now very late in the season and the playoff picture is starting to develop. It is imperative that you know the mindset of the teams you are wagering on. There is nothing worse than betting your hard earned money on some stiff team that can’t wait to get to the golf course. Go to my website, www.benspicks.com and do a little research. It can’t hurt. Merry Christmas and Good Luck, Ben

 

 
Potential BPR Plays

    Remember compare the BPR [Ben’s Power Rating] to the spread and if there’s a difference of 4 points or more, in your favor, then that’s a potential play. Below are the potential plays for this week; I have already added the 4 points. (Check individual game BPR's for any  line movements):

 

  • Buffalo +10.5 or greater
WINNER
  • CLEVELAND +6 or greater
Loser
  • HOUSTON +4.5 or greater
Loser
  • Detroit Even or +
WINNER
  • CAROLINA -3.5 or less
No Play
  • Giants +3.5 or greater
Loser
  • San Fran +6 or greater
WINNER
  • Indy +5 or greater
Loser
  • Oakland +13.5 or greater
Loser
  • Chicago -5.5 or less
No Play
  • Minny +5.5 or greater
No Play
  • JETS +5.5 or greater
Loser

Total = 

3 - 6
 

Closing Lines and Final Scores

 
Ben's Picks

All trends are ATS (Against The Spread) unless otherwise specified.

WINNER - 5* Giants v WASHINGTON --- The Giants beat up on the road challenged Chiefs last week and need one more win to clinch the NFC East. RB Tiki Barber has been All World this year and he’s the engine that makes the Giants go. Eli Manning has played well, but is still prone to the big mistakes a young QB is bound to make. Earlier this year the Giants beat up on this same Redskins squad, at home, in a game they dedicated to deceased owner Wellington Mira. The G-Men got several breaks that game and embarrassed the Redskins 36-0, that won’t happen here. Washington buried Drew Bledsoe and the Cowboys, at home last week, to keep their playoff hopes alive. Not only are they alive, but the Skins control their own destiny, if they close out with 2 victories. The previous match up of these teams has left a sour taste for Joe Gibbs and the Redskins and Washington will go all out for the win. The Skins have played all their games close, except versus the Giants, and have allowed only 29 points in the last 3. The Redskins are motivated and ready, take Washington. The home team prevails.

 

 

 

Loser - 5* Indy v Seattle --- Indy’s hope of a perfect season fell by the wayside last week and the Champagne bottles are still popping in Miami. The Colts may have clinched home field, but make no mistake about it, the loss last week to San Diego made their confidence take a nose dive. Coach Tony Dungy may start resting several starters, but the Colts will be going all out to win this game and get back on track. The Seahawks barely got by the downtrodden Titans last week and need one more victory to secure home field advantage. Seattle is 12-2 SU and has won 10 games in a row, but their schedule is littered with cupcakes. The Seahawks escaped with 3 point home wins versus the Giants and Cowboys and lost to the Redskins on the road. Indy is the stronger team and their backups are better than most Seattle starters. Take Indy and the generous spot.

 

 

 

WINNER - 4* Detroit v NEW ORLEANS --- The Lions got shellacked at home last week by the Bengals. Their home fans were cheering for the opposite team and the result was a mere formality. Detroit is looking forward to this road game, after that embarrassment, and should give a much better effort here. The New Orleans, or should I say the San Antonio / Baton Rouge, Saints got rolled by Carolina last week The Saints are pitiful and who could blame them, they have no home and have been devastated by injuries. Last week, new QB Matt Bouman got eaten alive by the Panthers now, he literally gets thrown to the Lions. Take Detroit and the small spot.

 

 

 

 

 

Loser - 4* Minny v BALTIMORE --- UNDER the Total --- The Vikings and QB Brad Johnson came back down to earth, as their 6 game winning steak came to abrupt halt versus the Steelers. The Iron Curtain clamped down hard on Johnson and the Vikings only managed 3 points. Minnesota still has a shot at the playoffs, but must overcome another stout defense, this time outdoors and on the road. The Ravens had their fun last week as  Bret Favre’s bouquets propelled them to a rare lopsided victory. QB Kyle Boller looked like a pro, but don’t expect that to happen 2 weeks in a row. The Vikings defense is playing much better, as of late, and that is the main reason Minnesota still has a shot. Two bad offenses, with sub par QB’s, going against two decent defenses on a cold December day. That spells U-N-D-E-R in my book.

 

 

 

Monday Night

WINNER - 4* New England v JETS --- The Pats took care of business last week, as they slapped a goose egg on the Bucs. New England has limped through an injury prone season, but has been getting healthy down the stretch. Several replacements, especially in the secondary, are starting to come around and the more they play together the better success they will have in the postseason. The Pats have locked up the AFC East, but Coach Belichek has stated he will not be resting any starters, because he wants this team battle tested and mentally prepared for the playoffs. The Jets stayed close with the Dolphins last week, but other than that, there is not much to crow about. Brooks Bollinger is still nothing more than a 3rd string QB and Curtis Martin is done for the year. Take New England and watch them get tuned for the playoffs. Look out Indy, the Pats got your number.

 

 

Total = 3 - 2 for +4*
 
The O/U's

 

  • Jax v HOUSTON UNDER
Loser
  • San Fran v ST. LOUIS UNDER
Loser
  • Philly v ARIZONA UNDER
Loser
  • Indy v SEATTLE OVER
Loser

Total = 

0 - 4
 
Teasers

  (Teasers MUST include key numbers: 3, 6, 7, 10, 14, etc.)

 

  • Pittsburgh -2
WINNER
  • K.C. +7
No Play
  • Detroit +10
No Play
  • Atlanta +10
WINNER
  • ST. LOUIS -3
Loser
  • Indy +14
WINNER
  • GREEN BAY +10
WINNER
  • Minny +10
No Play
  • New England Even
No Play

Total = 

4 - 1
 
HD's v Opp-Turf

 

  • BALTIMORE
WINNER
  • JETS
Loser

Total = 

1 - 1
   

Closing Lines and Final Scores

 
The Skinny

Legend is available below.

 

NFL WEEK #16

SATURDAY DECEMBER 24, 2005

Potential BPR Plays in Bold

EST

Line

BPR

Play If

Notes – Trends ATS (Against The Spread)

361 Buffalo Bills

1:00

44

 

+10.5

4-10 SU / 1-4 / 2-4 R / 0-6 SU R/ 3-0 O-U/ QB Holcomb?

362 Cincy Bengals

13.5

-6.5

-2.5

11-3 SU / 8-5-1 / 2-5 O-U H / Need W for Bye /

363 Pittsburgh Steelers

1:00

7

-2

+2

9-5 SU/ PITT 34–Clev 14,Nov 13/4-0 v Clev/0-7 O-U R

364 Cleveland Browns

33

 

+6

5-9 SU / 2-11 O-U / REV / 0-4 O-U H v Pitt / C Out /

365 San Diego Chargers

1:00

50

+3.5

9-5 SU / 9-4-1 / B2B R/ S.D. 28 – K.C. 20, Oct 30 /RB?

7-2 / 3-0 SU v KC / 5-1-1 R /2-5 O-U R /2-8 SU R v KC

366 Kansas City Chiefs

1

 

+4.5

8-6 SU / 8-5-1 / 3-1-1 / REV / 4-0 H / 17-0 SU H Dec /

367 Tennessee Titans

1:00

44

 

+10.5

4-10 SU / 6-8 / 2-0 v Miami/ 2-4 R/ 0-3 O-U R v Miami

368 Miami Dolphins

5.5

-6.5

-2.5

7-7 SU / 3-1 / 2-4 H / 4-2 O-U H / 2-4 H / QB Ferotte?

369 Jacksonville Jags

1:00

6

+3.5

10-4 SU /8-5-1 / 3-1/ JAX 21 – Hust 14, Nov 6/4-11 RH

370 Houston Texans

37.5

 

+4.5

2-12 SU / 6-2 / REV / 6-1 v Jax/ 4-2 O-U H/ 3-0 H v Jax

371 Detroit Lions

1:00

37.5

-4

Even

4-10 SU / 0-4 / 3-4 R / 6-7-1 / 2-5 O-U R /

372 New Orleans Saints

At San Antonio, Texas

3

 

+8

3-10 SU / 5-7-1 / 2-4-1 / 5-15 HF in Dec / QB Bauman /

373 Dallas Cowboys

1:00

37.5

 

+11.5

8-6 SU / 6-6-2 / 0-3-1 / 3-4 R / B2B R / Bledsoe bad R

374 Carolina Panthers

5.5

-7.5

-3.5

10-4 SU / 8-5-1 / 6-2 / 4-3 H / 4-2 v Dallas /

375 New York Giants

1:00

37

+3.5

10-4 SU / 9-4-1/ NYG 36 – Wash 0, Oct 30 / 2-4 O-U R

376 Wash. Redskins

3

 

+4.5

8-6 SU /8-5-1 / 3-0 / REV / 4-3 H / B2B H / G OUT

377 Atlanta Falcons

1:00

36.5

 

+6

8-6 SU / REV / B2B R/ 2-4/ 2-5 O-U R/ 4-2 O-U v Tmp

378 Tampa Bay Bucs

3

-2

+2

9-5 SU /Tampa 30 – ATL 27, Nov 20 / 8-2 v Atl /

379 San Fran 49ers

1:00

41.5

 

+6

2-12 SU / SF 28 –Rams 25, Sept 11/ 17-4 R v Rams/ 1-3

380 St. Louis Rams

9

-2

+2

5-9 SU / B2B H / 4-10/ 1-5/ 2-5 H / REV/ 1-3 O-U v SF

381 Philly Eagles

4:00

39.5

 

+5

6-8 SU / 5-9 / B2B R / 6-1 v Arz / 3-1 / 5-1 O-U v Arz

382 Arizona Cardinals

1

-1

+3

4-10 SU / 4-10 / 2-6 / QB Warner OUT /

383 Indy Colts

4:15

45

 

+5

13-1 SU / 6-1 R / Clinched – Resting Players ?

384 Seattle Seahawks

7.5

-1

+3

12-2 SU / 8-6 / 10-3 O-U / 5-2 H / 2 CB ?

385 Oakland Raiders

4:15

43

 

+13.5

4-10 SU / 5-9 / 1-6 / REV / 2-6 O-U v Den / 1-4 O-U R

386 Denver Broncos

13

-9.5

-5.5

11-3 SU / 9-4-1 / 10-4 O-U/ Den 31 – OAK 17, Nov 13/

4-1 v Oak / 14-6 v Oak / 8-2 SU H v Oak /

Merry Christmas!

SUNDAY DECEMBER 25, 2005

389 Chicago Bears

5:00

6.5

-9.5

-5.5

10-4 SU / 9-4-1 / CHIC 19 – GB 7, Nov 27 / QB ? /

3-10 O-U / 7-2-1 / 5-2 O-U v GB / 2-8 v GB /

390 Green Bay Packers

31

 

+13.5

3-11 SU / 0-5 / 2-4 H / 4-9 O-U / Aft Mon / Retire Bret

391 Minny Vikings

8:30

34

 

+5.5

8-6 SU / 6-1 / 3-4 R / 1-5 O-U R /

392 Baltimore Ravens

3

-1.5

+2.5

5-9 SU / 6-8 / 4-3 H/ 1-6 O-U H/ Bounce DOWN/ Aft Mon

 

MONDAY DECEMBER 26, 2005

393 New England Pats

9:00

5

-1.5

+2.5

9-5 SU / 8-6 / NE 16 – Jets 3, Dec 4 / 3-0 / Not Resting

394 New York Jets

37.5

 

+5.5

3-11 SU / 5-9 / 2-0 / REV / 0-3 O-U v NE / 1-4 v NE /

 

 

Information Purposes Only - Not Intended For Anyone Under 21 Years of Age

The Legend

ATS – Against Spread

aft - after

bfr - before

[BPR] - Ben’s Power Rating

B2B – Back To Back

BOUNCE – Opp. result

D – Dog

Def - defense

DDD – Double Digit Dog

DDF - Double Digit Favorite

DIV - Division

F – Favorite

L - Loss

SAND - Sandwich game

 

H – Home

HD – Home Dog

HF – Home Favorite

HOME TEAM – In Capitals

LW – Last Week

LY – Last Year

N-DIV - Non Division

O/U – Over /Under

OFF – Offense

R – Road

REV – Revenge

SU – Straight Up

V - Versus

W - Win