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Picks on a

12-6-2 Run for +26*

 

Volume VII, Week 17

December 29, 2005

2005 Results

      

Week

Year to Date

%

Ben's Picks

+37

3-2 41-34-5 55%
Ben's Power Rating (BPR)

3-6

52-55-5

49%

 

Over/Unders

0-4 29-35-1 45%
Teasers 4-1 65-17 79%
HD's v Opposite Turf 1-1 14-21-1 40%
The Rant

      

        The Picks had another positive outcome in Week 16, going 3-2 for +4. That makes 4 winning weeks in a row, for a 12-6-2 run and +26. The Picks record for the year is 41-34-5, for a very solid 55% winners. Those winners include a solid 5 play on the resurgent Redskins. The Skins took their revenge for an early season shutout and positioned themselves for a playoff spot, with one more victory. The Giants have been bitten by the injury bug, especially at LB, and their postseason success doesn’t look as rosy. Detroit went on the road, avoiding the home field turmoil, and left San Antonio with a win over the downtrodden Saints. New England took care of business, on the final ABC Monday Night game, letting their starters play throughout most of the game. The Jets gave it all they had, which isn’t much. Our old buddy Vinny Testaverde even got into the game and threw a TD pass. The final score was 31-21 and it was very ironic, because the Jets also lost the first Monday Night game, in 1970, to Cleveland 31-21. There’s no truth to the rumor that Vinny also threw a TD in that game. The losers included Indy going to Seattle and being humbled by the Seahawks. I made that selection early in the week, before the tragic news of the death of Coach Dungy’s son, hopefully you were all smart enough to get off of that pick. I know I did, but I still have to count it as a loser here. Last of the losers was the UNDER play in the Minnesota v Baltimore game. We’ve been on a pretty good roll the last month, hopefully we can keep it up and have a strong finish in the playoffs.

        The BPR bit the bullet yet again, going 3-6 and falling under 50% for the year. The BPR has been a major disappointment the second half of the year and it’s causing me some major headaches. Hopefully this is only an aberration. The BPR has been very strong in the playoffs in years past, lets hope it regains its stature in the postseason. The winners included Buffalo, Detroit and San Fran. The losers were Cleveland, Houston, the Giants, Indy, Oakland, and the Jets. Carolina, Chicago, and Minnesota were not considered plays. The Teasers continued on their steady climb going 4-1 and sitting at a solid 79% for the year. The O/U’s went in the dumper big time, going 0-4 and falling under 50% for the year. The HD’s went 1-1.

        The selections this week were especially tough to make. Not only do you have to gage the strengths and weaknesses of the individual teams, you have to also assume who’s starting and which teams are still mentally interested in winning. It’s a very tough task and the bottom line here is, take it easy this week. Don’t blow your bankroll before the playoffs start, it’s going to be an interesting postseason. Thanks, Ben

 

 
Potential BPR Plays

    Remember compare the BPR [Ben’s Power Rating] to the spread and if there’s a difference of 4 points or more, in your favor, then that’s a potential play. Below are the potential plays for this week; I have already added the 4 points. (Check individual game BPR's for any  line movements):

 

  • Denver +6 or greater
WINNER
  • OAKLAND +7.5 or greater
Loser
  • INDY -10 or less
Loser
  • CLEVELAND +2 or greater
WINNER
  • ATLANTA +4 or greater
No Play
  • Chicago -3 or less
Loser
  • Cincy +5 or greater
Loser
  • Detroit +12.5 or greater
WINNER
  • Miami +8 or greater
No Play
  • New Orleans +15.5 or greater
No Play
  • SAN FRAN Even or +
WINNER
  • JAX -5.5 or less
WINNER
  • Seattle -3 or less
Tie
  • PHILLY +4.5 or greater
Loser
  • St. Louis +10 or greater
WINNER

Total = 

6 - 5 - 1
 

Closing Lines and Final Scores

 
Ben's Picks

All trends are ATS (Against The Spread) unless otherwise specified.

Loser - 5* Houston v SAN FRAN --- You think I’m crazy, don’t you? Yes, this is the “Bush Bowl” and if the Texans lose they are assured of the 1st selection in the draft, but do the Texan players and coaches really want the first pick? Think about it, Dan Reeves was hired several weeks ago as an “advisor”, that spelled the end for Coach Dom Capers and company. Capers knows he’s done and what better way to stick it ownership, than to win this game and screw everything up, before he gets booted. The Texans have been very competitive in the second half of the year and last week they were tooth and nails, versus the Jags, until the 4th quarter. That proves this team is still putting out, despite their lack of wins. The Niners won their first road game last week versus the pathetic Rams. San Fran was hit with a severe injury problem at CB. It got so bad LB Julian Peterson had to play CB in the second half. The Niners are injury riddled and lack talent at many key positions. The topper to the whole draft scenario is, if the Texans win they would most likely end up in a tie with the Saints, Niners and possibly Green Bay. The kicker is, the Saints would get the first pick, not the Niners, or Packers due to strength of schedule. I think the Texans sack up and win one last one for Capers. Take Houston.

 

 

Tie - 5* Seattle v GREEN BAY --- Now, you really think I’m crazy, don’t you? Think about it, the Seahawks have clinched home field advantage and Coach Holmgren will be resting his starters in a meaningless road game. Meaningless to the Seahawks, but not necessarily to the Packers. You all know how I feel about the integrity of Bret Favre, but last week, despite the fact Bret threw 4 interceptions, he was actually out there trying to beat the Bears. The vultures, a.k.a. the media, had begun circling and Favre was trying to throw them off. I had a feeling that would be the case, that’s why I laid off that game. Now, this may be his last game ever and what better why to send off ole Brett, then for his good buddy Mike Holmgren, to throw him a going away party. Take Green Bay and spot the small number, the earlier you bet it the lower it will be. You may all think I’m crazy, but watch and learn, the NFL is almost as bad as politics.

 

 

Loser - 4* Arizona v INDY --- The Cards got a needed home win over the Eagles last week. Arizona now gets the opportunity to mail in one last road game to end a dismal season. QB Kurt Warner is on the shelf and, if you take a look at the Arizona injury report, he’s got a lot of company. The extensive injury problem is the major reason why the Cards have been struggling to get to mediocre all season long. The Colts clinched the home field weeks ago and, as we all know, many of their starters will not be playing here, or playing very little. The advantage we have here is, the Colt backups are better than the Cardinal starters. It’s that simple. Throw in the fact that Coach Dungy may be back on the sidelines for an added emotional boost and you have the makings for a feel good win. Take Indy and spot the TD, the Colts go into the postseason on a high note.

 

 

 

 

Loser - 4* Washington v PHILLY --- The Skins have been playing great ball in the last month and need one more win to clinch a playoff spot. Washington beat up on rivals Dallas, and the Giants, in successive weeks and now must sneak past the Eagles to get to the postseason. Philly slapped the Rams, than showed up in body only, for last weeks game versus the Cards. The Eagles season was over months ago, when the franchise got bitten in the ass by their own rabid dog, T.O.. Philly will not lay down for this rival, their fans won’t let them, and the remaining starters are playing for their jobs next year. Don’t think for a second the Skins are going to have an easy time of it. The Redskins haven’t been to the playoffs for some time now, I sense a little tightening under the collar. Throw in the face that Mark Brunnell will be playing on a bad knee and you have the makings of a real backyard brawl. I’ll take the home team, plus the generous spot. Philly.

 

 

Loser - 3* Carolina v ATLANTA --- The Panthers seemingly had the world by the scrotum after they beat these Falcons at home, on Dec. 4th. Since then, Carolina has lost 2 out of 3 and those 2 loses were to Tampa and Dallas, the 2 teams they need to beat out to make the playoffs. If the Panthers win they are in, if not, it doesn’t look good. Carolina is another team that may get a little tight under the collar. The Falcons were eliminated from playoff contention last week, after losing in OT to the Bucs and all hell broke loose in the local media. Atlanta seemingly had the game in hand, but blew several opportunities to seal the win. Coach Mora went a little ballistic after the game actually throwing his headset to the ground when questioned about his decision making. Throw in the fact that star QB, Michael Vick, was very nonchalant about the loss and the boys with the microphones had a field day, or should I say a field week. There is only one way to shut up the nay Sayers and that is to win. Not only will they get silence their critics, they will get revenge on their rival, Carolina. Possibly knocking them out of the playoffs. Take Atlanta and the small #, it’ll be a close one.

 

 
Total = 0 - 4 - 1 for -16*
 
The O/U's

 

  • Buffalo v JETS OVER
WINNER
  • Detroit v PITT UNDER
Loser
  • New Orleans v TAMPA UNDER
Loser
  • Wash v PHILLY UNDER
Loser

Total = 

1 - 3
 
Teasers

  (Teasers MUST include key numbers: 3, 6, 7, 10, 14, etc.)

 

  • SAN DIEGO -3
No Play
  • INDY -2
WINNER
  • Cleveland +10
No Play
  • ATLANTA +10
No Play
  • Chicago +10
Loser
  • Detroit +21
WINNER
  • Houston +7
No Play
  • PHILLY +14
WINNER

Total = 

3 - 1
 
HD's v Opp-Turf

 

  • OAKLAND
Loser
  • ATLANTA
Loser
  • PHILLY
Loser

Total = 

0 - 3
   

Closing Lines and Final Scores

 
The Skinny

Legend is available below.

 

NFL WEEK #17

SATURDAY DECEMBER 31, 2005

Potential BPR Plays in Bold

EST

Line

BPR

Play If

Notes – Trends ATS (Against The Spread)

421 Denver Broncos

4:30

44

 

+6

12-3 SU / 10-4-1 / DEN 20 – S.D. 17, Sept 18/ Clinched

422 San Diego Chargers

10

-2

+2

9-6 SU / 9-5-1 / 4-10 O-U / REV/ 0-3 O-U v Den / Starters will play /

423 New York Giants

8:00

8.5

-3.5

+1

10-5 SU / 9-5-1 / B2B R / 4-1 v Oak / Cluster injuries at LB / Need  W to W div

424 Oakland Raiders

43

 

+7.5

4-11 SU / 5-10 / 1-7 / 0-3 O-U v Giants / 1-7 / Quitters

Happy New Year!

SUNDAY JANUARY 1, 2006

431 Arizona Cardinals

1:00

44

 

+18

5-10 SU / 5-10 / 3-6 /

432 Indy Colts

6.5

-14

-10

13-2 SU / 9-6 / 0-2 SU / Clinched – Starters + Coach ?

433 Baltimore Ravens

1:00

3

 

+6

6-9 SU / 7-8 / 2-0 SU / BALT 16 – Clev 3, Oct 16 /

434 Cleveland Browns

37

-2

+2

5-10 SU / 7-8 / 3-11 O-U / REV/ -14 and 1-3 O-U v Balt

435 Buffalo Bills

1:00

1

-1

+3

5-10 SU / 7-8 / B2B R / BUF 27 – Jets 17, Oct 16 /

436 New York Jets

37

 

+5

3-12 SU / 5-10 / Aft Mon / REV / 8-3 H v Buff /

437 Carolina Panthers

1:00

3.5

 

+4

10-5 SU / 8-6-1 / CAROL 24 – Atl 6, Dec 4 / Need W

438 Atlanta Falcons

42

Even

+4

8-7 SU / 2-5 / REV / 6-1 H v Car / 4-2 v Car / Done

439 Chicago Bears

4:15

35

-7

-3

11-4 SU / 9-4-2/ CHIC 28 – Minny 3, Oct 16/ 4-0 v Min

440 Minny Vikings

3

 

+11

8-7 SU / 6-2 / REV / 1-5 O-U v Chic / Done /

441 Cincy Bengals

1:00

46

 

+5

11-4 SU / 8-6-1 / Need For Seed / QB Palmer ? /

442 Kansas City Chiefs

7

-1

+3

9-6 SU / 9-5-1 / 4-1-1 / 18-0 SU H Dec / 5-0 H / Need

443 Detroit Lions

1:00

35.5

 

+12.5

5-10 SU / 7-7-1 / 2-6 O-U R / B2B R / Harrington starts

444 Pittsburgh Steelers

14

-8.5

-4.5

10-5 SU / 9-6 / 3-0 / 6-0 O-U H / Need  W to beat K.C.

445 Miami Dolphins

1:00

37

 

+8

8-7 SU / 7-8 / 4-1 / REV / 1-5 v N.E. / 1-3 O-U v N.E. /

446 New England Pats

6

-4

Even

10-5 SU / 9-6 / 4-0 / Pats 23 – MIAMI 16,Nov 13/ Need

447 N. Orleans Saints

1:00

37

 

+15.5

3-11 SU / 5-8-1 / 2-5-1 / REV / 1-3 and 0-4 O-U v Tam/ Long strange trip is finally over.

448 Tampa Bay Bucs

13.5

-11.5

-7.5

10-5 SU / 6-8-1 / Tampa 10 – N.O. 3, Dec 4 / Need

449 Houston Texans

4:00

1

 

+8.5

2-13 SU / 6-3 / Loser get the Bush, Reggie that is.

450 San Fran 49ers

38.5

-4.5

Even

3-12 SU / 7-8 / Injuries at CB

451 Tennessee Titans

4:00

38

 

+13.5

4-11 SU / 6-9 / B2B R / REV / 1-3 v Jax /

452 Jacksonville Jags

3.5

-9.5

-5.5

11-4 SU / 9-5-1 / 4-1 / Jax 31 – TENN 28, Nov 20 / Clinched / Leftwich may be back / RB Taylor starts /

453 Seattle Seahawks

1:00

43.5

-7

-3

13-2 SU / 9-6 / 11-3 O-U / 2-0 O-U v GB / Resting starters / Will Holmgren give Favre retirement present ?

454 Green Bay Packers

3

 

+11

3-12 SU / 0-5-1 / 2-4-1 H / B2B H / Favre’s last game?

455 Wash. Redskins

4:15

7

+3.5

9-6 SU / 9-5-1 / WASH 17 – Philly 10, Nov 6 / Need / QB Brunell ? /

456 Philly Eagles

37

 

+4.5

6-9 SU / 5-10 / 2-4-1 H / REV / 11-5 v Wash / 7-1 SU v Wash / REV / 0-4 O-U v Wash /

458 St. Louis Rams

8:30

43

 

+10

5-10 SU / 4-11 / 1-6 / Stiffs / RB Faulk’s last game ?

459 Dallas Cowboys

12.5

-6

-2

9-6 SU / 7-6-2 / Need, if Carolina loses / New K

 

 

Information Purposes Only - Not Intended For Anyone Under 21 Years of Age

The Legend

ATS – Against Spread

aft - after

bfr - before

[BPR] - Ben’s Power Rating

B2B – Back To Back

BOUNCE – Opp. result

D – Dog

Def - defense

DDD – Double Digit Dog

DDF - Double Digit Favorite

DIV - Division

F – Favorite

L - Loss

SAND - Sandwich game

 

H – Home

HD – Home Dog

HF – Home Favorite

HOME TEAM – In Capitals

LW – Last Week

LY – Last Year

N-DIV - Non Division

O/U – Over /Under

OFF – Offense

R – Road

REV – Revenge

SU – Straight Up

V - Versus

W - Win