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Only $60 All Year!

 

Volume VII, Week 1

September 1, 2005

2004 Results

      

Week

Year to Date

%

Ben's Picks

0

0-0 0-0 50%
Ben's Power Rating (BPR)

0-0

0-0

50%

 

Over/Unders

0-0 0-0 50%
Teasers 0-0 0-0 50%
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The Rant

        I LOVE NFL FOOTBALL and I have devised a power rating system that has picked 57% winners ATS (Against The Spread) since 1999. In fact this numerical system has gone 412-316 ATS the last six years. I call this system Benís Power Rating (BPR for short). The BPR (Benís Power Rating) has also produced 69% winners in the playoffs, going 22-10-1 ATS, including a 4-0-1 record in the last six Superbowls (No selection in 2003). The BPR is simple, it works and you can have access to these numbers and more for $3.00 per week, thatís a $40 savings and

ONLY $60.00 FOR THE WHOLE YEAR!

        What is this BPR you say? The BPR is a formula that uses some very basic game statistics. This formula allows us the ability to compare the relative strengths and weaknesses of the two teams in each NFL match up. Now I can sit here and tell you that this is some big badass formula that takes hours of calculations and a massive computer to produce some magical numbers, but thatís bull. It usually takes about an hour of my time and a good calculator to compute these figures. It sounds so simple and too good to be true, but it works.

Donít be a fool    ---    57% Winners ATS    ---    the last six years!

        This is the 9th year I will be using these numbers and the first two I wasted, sitting on the sidelines, because I just couldn't believe something so simple could come up with such consistent winners. Now, I don't want to sound like one of those idiot touts that says you're going to be a huge winner every week, that's impossible and if you're dumb enough to believe them, you deserve the bath you're going to take. This system works over the long haul. Most weeks you will win or break even, but there will be some losing weeks too. The BPR works, but the trick to cashing is to use good money management. Each week the BPR produces 5 to 10 potential plays, your job is to narrow these potential picks down to a few select favorites in any way you see fit. It canít get any simpler than that. You make your picks from a pool of selections that are a proven 57% winner. WARNING, DO NOT BET AGAINST THE BPR! If you donít like the side the Power Rating picks, stay away from that game. I learned my lesson the hard way on that one.

        If you still donít believe the BPR works, you can mail or bring in the coupon below and I will provide you with a free copy of my Newsletter, ďBenís PicksĒ, at no charge. You can also request a free copy at my web site, www.benspicks.com. There you can track the weekly results of the BPR and my personal picks. Each week I will post the previous weeks Newsletter and the results of my picks and the BPR. My website, www.benspicks.com is all you need to stay on top of the NFL. There youíll find FREE links to Stats, Odds, Line Sheets, Weather, Injuries, and up to date NFL News. Check it out, Itís FREE!

        My Newsletter, ďBenís PicksĒ, includes the BPR numbers on each NFL game, it will also provide you with some picturesque commentary, which I call ďThe RantĒ, and my personal picks. You may agree, or you may disagree with me, itís up to you, but I will make you think. Right now you can have all this information for less than $3.00 a week, thatís only $60.00 for the whole year, including the playoffs. Thatís right, not $60 a pick, but $60 for the whole year. Itís not very much money to pay for a consistent system. If you pick one extra winner all year, the system will pay for itself and, believe me, you'll do a lot better than that. To sign up, fill in the coupon below and send it in with your payment or go to benspicks.com and sign up there. You can also drop me a line at the address or phone number above. You won't be sorry. In the meantime enjoy this FREE copy with my compliments. Thanks and Good Luck, Ben

 

 
 
Potential BPR Plays

    Remember compare the BPR [Benís Power Rating] to the spread and if thereís a difference of 4 points or more, in your favor, then thatís a potential play. Below are the potential plays for this week; I have already added the 4 points. (Check individual game BPR's for any  line movements):

 

  • CLEVELAND +5.5 or greater
No Play
  • BUFFALO -3.5 or less
No Play
  • Chicago +5 or greater
WINNER
  • SAN DIEGO -7.5 or less
Loser
  • BALTIMORE EVEN or +
Loser
  • SAN FRAN +6 or greater
WINNER

Total = 

2 - 2
 

Closing Lines and Final Scores

 
Ben's Picks

All trends are ATS (Against The Spread) unless otherwise specified.

 

Loser - 5* Arizona v GIANTS --- Payback is a bitch. The Giants kicked ex-MVP Kurt Warner to the curb last year a bit prematurely. Coach Tom Coughlin couldnít wait to usher in the Eli Manning era and the impatience cost the G-Men a playoff berth. Eli settled in the last 2 games, but it was a case of too little too late. Warner took the high road and didnít really complain, although you know it had to eat him up inside, the he was given his walking papers. Enter Denny Green and the Arizona Cardinals. Green brought some respectability to the Cards in 2004 and he despises young QBís. Arizona has some studs at the skill positions RB and WR and they have been lacking is a reliable QB. Warner would like to revive his career and was signed to make things happen in the desert and he will. Heís a perfect fit for Greenís offense and will make everyone around him better. Back in New Jersey, Manning had to miss 2 weeks of practice, with a bum elbow, and word is Eliís still not ready for prime time. Iíll take the cagey veteran with a grudge every time. Revenge is sweet.

 

 

Loser - 4* Dallas v SAN DIEGO --- Dallas and Coach Bill Parcells never had a chance to contend for a playoff spot, in a very disappointing 6-10 season. The Cowboys were putrid on both sides of the ball and Parcells has cleaned house. QB Drew Bledsoe was signed to add a veteran presence and several additions were made to the defense through the draft and signings. The Cowboys will get better, but not just yet. The Chargers were the surprise of the league last year. QB Drew Brees was on his way out the door, with Philip Rivers waiting in the wings. Heís just going to have to wait a little longer. Brees had a tremendous year leading San Diego to a 12-4 record and RB LaDainian Tomlinson was his old steady self. Expect more of the same this season. The Cowboys are still a work in progress, the Chargers are ready to hit the ground running. Go with the home team that knows how to win. Take San Diego and lay the points.

 

 

WINNER - 4* Houston v BUFFALO --- The Texans, now in their 4th year, have made a steady ascent in the W column. Coach Dom Capers is on the right track, albeit a slow one. QB David Carr is improving and will get much better as long as he gets some time to throw, the Texans allowed 49 sacks last year. The Houston defense has lost 4 starters and needs to improve their pass rush and pass protection. These deficiencies will play right into the Bills hands. Buffalo narrowly missed a playoff berth, in 2004, after a 0-4 start. This will be Coach Mike Mularkeyís second year and he has this team primed, especially the defense. The Bills defense was 2nd in the NFL last year and only lost 1 starter. Their strength is attacking the QB and this will be a decisive advantage for the Bills. Buffalo QB J.P. Losman will be making his first start and, after a yearís worth of hype, heís ready to make things happen. J.P.ís main weapon is RB Willis McGahee. McGahee entered the lineup, after a T. Henry injury, and never left. The Bills are hungry, after their near miss last year, and are clearly superior on both sides of the ball. Itís the home opener and the Ralph will be rocking, take Buffalo.

 

 

WINNER - 3* Green Bay v DETROIT --- The Pack is not back, in fact the Pack wonít be back for a long time. Bret Farve and the Packers begin the year with an adequate offense, but the Green Bay defense leaves much to be desired. The Pack has several question marks on the D-line, due to injuries, and their secondary is not very good. Itís going to be a long and moldy year for the Cheeseheads. QB Joey Harrington and the Lions have shown steady improvement under 3rd year coach Steve Mariucci. This may be the year they actually contend for a playoff spot. The Lions offense is primed, at the skill positions, and only needs Mr. Harrington to take them to the next plateau. This contest will be a major test versus a previously dominant division foe. Will the Lions ace the exam, or will they be held back a year. This game may give us the answer. Detroit is 7-1 ATS at Home versus Green Bay. I like the home town Lions in a high scoring affair.

 

 

Loser - 3* St. Louis v SAN FRAN --- The Rams have slowly deteriorated since Coach Mike ďThe Idiot SavantĒ Martz took over 5 years ago. Martz can draw Xís and Oís but when it comes to managing a football game, his brain gets in the way. The Rams, as always, are strong on offense, with QB Marc Bulger a solid performer, their defense has always been the sticking point and it still is. The Niners look to rebound from their 2-14 season of a year ago. Mike Nolan may be the man to get the job done, but itís not happening anytime soon. Nolan played musical QBís with his starter in the preseason, first it was rookie Alex Smith, now itís veteran Tim Rattay. Indecision can only single one thing, neither one is ready to start. Nolan will also be implementing a new defense and all these changes will take time before they are successful. A long, long time. The Rams have been there and done that, while the Niners are a work in progress. I donít like Martz as a game day coach, but the Rams will be ready. Take St. Louis and spot the road wood.

 

 
Total = 2 - 3 for -5*
 
The O/U's

 

Oakland V NEW ENGLAND OVER WINNER
Chicago v WASHINGTON UNDER WINNER
Tampa v MINNY UNDER WINNER
Green Bay v DETROIT OVER Loser

Total = 

3 - 1
 
Teasers

  (Teasers MUST include key numbers: 3, 7, 10, etc.)

 

NEW ENGLAND -2.5 WINNER
Denver EVEN Loser
BUFFALO EVEN WINNER
PITTSBURGH -2 WINNER
MINNY -1.5 Loser
Arizona +6 Loser
DETROIT +3 WINNER
SAN DIEGO -1 Loser

Total = 

4 - 4
 
HD's v Opp-Turf

 

CLEVELAND Loser
SAN FRAN WINNER
BALTIMORE Loser
ATLANTA WINNER

Total = 

2 - 2
   

Closing Lines and Final Scores

 
The Skinny

Legend is available below.

 

NFL WEEK #1

THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 8, 2005

Potential BPR Plays in Bold

EST

Line

BPR

Play If

Notes

301 Oakland Raiders

9:00

50

 

+12.5

WR Moss adds to the O / D Sucks big time Ė bad secondary

302 N. England Patriots

7

-8.5

-4.5

Pats have lost a lot of parts. Will the engine still run smooth?

 

SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 11, 2005

393 Denver Broncos

1:00

4

-2

+2

Trying to retool the D with rejects / Another mediocre year?

394 Miami Dolphins

39

 

+6

Good D / O is only Ricky ďDonít Bogart That JointĒ Williams

395 Cincinnati Bengals

1:00

3.5

-1.5

+2.5

Another year under Lewis. Primed for the playoffs?

396 Cleveland Browns

44.5

 

+5.5

Rebuild from bottom up. Stay away team early in year.

397 Houston Texans

1:00

40

 

+11.5

Getting better slowly. Watch out for below average D

398 Buffalo Bills

4

-7.5

-3.5

Great D / Will contend for playoffs. Itís all up to QB Losman

399 Tennessee Titans

1:00

40.5

 

+12

Lost many starters / This will be a rebuilding year.

400 Pittsburgh Steelers

7.5

-8

-4

Opposition will catch up to Big Ben / D still strong

401 Chicago Bears

1:00

34

 

+5

Lost starting QB, will struggle on O / D is very good.

402 Wash Redskins

5

-1

+3

Another year of going nowhere on O / D is very good.

403 New Orleans Saints

1:00

46

 

+8

D not very good / Jim Haslettís last hurrah?

404 Carolina Panthers

6

-4

E

Many players back from injuries last year / Will contend

405 Tampa Bay Bucs

1:00

43

 

+8

Jon Gruden bad at picking players / Bad O / Good D

406 Minnesota Vikings

6

-4

E

Will be better without Moss/ More conservative 0 / Better D

407 Seattle Seahawks

1:00

40

 

+6

Team not very motivated / Mike Holmgrenís last year.

408 Jacksonville Jags

3

-2

+2

Not much talent on O / Good D / Play as Dog not Favorite

409 New York Jets

1:00

49

 

+6

QB Penningtonís arm a ? / D lost a couple

410 Kansas City Chiefs

3

-2

+2

Great O / Vermeil needs to shore up the D

411 Arizona Cardinals

4:15

38.5

 

+5.5

Cards ready to take next step with Green and QB Warner

412 New York Giants

1.5

-1.5

+2.5

Eli still a work in progress. It may take another year.

413 St. Louis Rams

4:15

4

-2

+2

D still not strong enough to take them into the playoffs.

414 San Francisco 49ers

46

 

+6

Stay Away / Stay Away / Stay Away / Stay Away/ Stay Away

415 Green Bay Packers

4:15

46

 

+8

Farve on his last leg / D lost way too much / shootout games

416 Detroit Lions

3

-4

E

Getting better. Will Harrington be able to get the job done?

417 Dallas Cowboys

4:15

40.5

 

+15.5

Many new pieces. It may take a couple of games to compete.

418 S. Diego Chargers

4.5

-11.5

-7.5

Will be strong, but not as good as last year.

419 Indy Colts

8:30

3

 

+7.5

Still missing a good D / Games will be shootouts

420 Baltimore Ravens

47.5

-3.5

E

O getting back starters / Will compete for playoffs

 

MONDAY SEPTEMBER 12, 2005

421 Philly Eagles

9:00

1.5

-1/2

+3.5

Much turmoil in the off season. It may affect the team

422 Atlanta Falcons

41

 

+4.5

WRís all banged up early / Vick canít find them anyway.

 

 

Information Purposes Only - Not Intended For Anyone Under 21 Years of Age

The Legend

 

ATS Ė Against Spread

aft - after

bfr - before

[BPR] - Benís Power Rating

B2B Ė Back To Back

BOUNCE Ė Opp. result

D Ė Dog

Def - defense

DDD Ė Double Digit Dog

DDF - Double Digit Favorite

DIV - Division

F Ė Favorite

L - Loss

SAND - Sandwich game

 

H Ė Home

HD Ė Home Dog

HF Ė Home Favorite

HOME TEAM Ė In Capitals

LW Ė Last Week

LY Ė Last Year

N-DIV - Non Division

O/U Ė Over /Under

OFF Ė Offense

R Ė Road

REV Ė Revenge

SU Ė Straight Up

V - Versus

W - Win