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Picks 3-1-1, +10 * LW

BPR 23-11 Run

 

Volume VII, Week 10

November 10, 2005

2005 Results

      

Week

Year to Date

%

Ben's Picks

+23

3-1-1 23-19-3 55%
Ben's Power Rating (BPR)

3-2-1

32-25-4

56%

 

Over/Unders

2-2 19-17-1 53%
Teasers 2-0 37-9 80%
HD's v Opposite Turf 1-5 9-12 43%
The Rant

         My picks were an impressive 3-1-1 last week, with the only loser being the UNDER play in the Carolina versus Tampa match up. We never had a chance in that one, as Chris Simms decided to make like Santa Claus in the first half, and it was all downhill after that. The winners included Houston, hitting for a 5* two weeks in a row, and hanging tough with the Jags. The Texans held a nice lead, but couldn’t finish in the second half. Kansas City also came through as a 5* winner, knocking out the Raiders on the last play of the game, and covering the 3 points. Yes, it was lucky, but we’ve lost our share too. Last, but certainly not least, was the beat down the Colts finally laid on the Patriots. The Patriots are a shell of their former selves and if something doesn’t change soon, they will also be the former Champs. The Bears settled for a 3 point win and tied the spread, against the free falling Saints. They’re so bad, even their owner won’t go to watch them. Week 9 was a confidence builder, let’s see if we can keep it going.

        The BPR (Ben’s Power Rating) followed up an astounding 8-1, Week 8, by going 3-2-1 in Week 9. The BPR is now on an impressive 26-13 run, for 67% winners, the last 5 weeks. The winners included Houston, Indy and the Bengals, taking care of the offensively challenged Ravens on the road. Baltimore gets back Kyle Boller this week, but it won’t make a difference. The losers were Detroit, taking some from Minnesota on the road. Jeff Garcia couldn’t start and you can’t bet on Joey Harrington, no way, no how. The Niners also came up short, after the Giants woke up in the second half. Chicago tied, the Jets, Cleveland, Tampa, Green Bay and Philly did not qualify as plays, because the closing line did not meet the needed number. Remember, we are now using the closing line at the Stardust, as reported by www.donbest.com.

        The “Teaser” plays went 2-0, but had most selections fall by the wayside, because the closing number failed to measure up. San Diego and K.C. came through, while Minnesota, Tennessee, New Orleans, Tampa, Houston and Washington failed to qualify. The “O/U’s” came in at 2-2, with a disappointing loss by ½ point in the K.C. versus Oakland match up. The “HD’s v Opp-Turf” hit the proverbial brick wall last week going an abysmal 1-5. If this keeps up, we may be putting that trend to bed next year. I stated last year that the turf differences may me coming to a close, due to the new field turf concoctions now in use. The favorites were an amazing 11-2-1 last week and this week we’re paying for it, with several inflated lines. Due your homework and nose out some deserving dogs. The best place to do that homework is at www.benspicks.com. There you are one click away from up to the minute news, weather, stats, injury reports and especially line movements. It’s all just one click away and the best thing of all, It’s FREE!

        One more comment before I bid farewell for the week. T.O. is an asshole and he’s getting what he deserves. The only people in his corner are Drew “Show Me The Money” Rosen-ho and Michael “Where’s The Hoe” Irving. Irving is not an unbiased analyst and should be in jail, not on television. Thanks, Ben

 

 
Potential BPR Plays

    Remember compare the BPR [Ben’s Power Rating] to the spread and if there’s a difference of 4 points or more, in your favor, then that’s a potential play. Below are the potential plays for this week; I have already added the 4 points. (Check individual game BPR's for any  line movements):

 

  • TAMPA +1 or greater
WINNER
  • MIAMI -1 or less
Loser
  • San Fran +13.5 or greater
No Play
  • GIANTS -11.5 or less
Loser
  • DETROIT -5 or less
WINNER
  • JAX -8 or less
WINNER
  • Houston +19.5 or greater
No Play
  • OAKLAND +4 or greater
No Play
  • Green Bay +11.5 or greater
No Play
  • PITTSBURGH -7 or less
No Play

Total = 

3 - 2
 

Closing Lines and Final Scores

 
Ben's Picks

All trends are ATS (Against The Spread) unless otherwise specified.

WINNER - 5* Houston v INDY --- The Texans have been getting back people off the injury list and playing better, the last 3 weeks. Houston hung tough with Jacksonville and beat the Browns 2 weeks ago. Three weeks ago the Texans played these Colts even until halftime, only to get rolled over in the final 30 minutes. The Colts are coming off one of their biggest wins ever. They finally beat the Patriots in Foxboro. It was an impressive game and the Colts dominated the soon to be former Champs. That said, we all know the inevitable letdown is about to happen. The Colts have focused on one thing the previous 2 weeks, beat New England. That goal has finally been accomplished, now how can they get up for the lowly Texans? They won’t, but the Texans will. Indy is only concerned about winning the game, not covering 18 points. This will be the 3rd week in a row I make Houston a 5* selection. Why mess with a good thing? The Texans lasso the Colts. Take Houston and the very generous spot.

 

 

 

WINNER - 4* Washington v TAMPA --- The Skins are coming off a huge Sunday Night win over Philly. Washington didn’t do anything fancy, but held the Eagles to only 10 points. The Redskins defensive line is banged up, but they were able to conceal that weakness, due to Philly’s nonexistent running game. The Bucs got their asses handed to them, for the second week in a row, last Sunday, at home against the Panthers. Tampa misses Brian Greise, and Chris Simms does a piss poor impression of his father. Simms spotted Carolina a huge lead, when he threw 2 interceptions and coughed up the ball on 2 fumbles. This week, with the help of Cadillac Williams, Simms and company will benefit by facing an injury depleted defensive line. The Bucs are an excellent home team and need to get back on track, while the Skins bask in the glow of their win over Philly. This is a classic Bounce UP, versus Bounce DOWN scenario. Take the home dog Bucs and hope the kid can hang on to the ball. Tampa.

 

 

 

Loser - 4* Dallas v PHILLY --- The Cowboys, off their bye week, are a respectable 5-3 and in the playoff hunt. Bill Parcell’s young defense is starting to come around and the “Lumbering Giraffe”, also known as Drew Bledsoe, is doing just enough to keep this team above water. Back in his days with the Buffalo Bills, Mr. Bledsoe had done the same, but as the games become bigger, and the lights on the road become brighter, the “Giraffe” magically turns into a turnover Ostrich. The Eagles are off a Sunday Night loss to the Redskins and are still dealing with the whole T.O. debacle. It has to eat them up, that they lost last week, while Mr. Owens was at home giggling like a little girl. If the Eagles lose here, they will begin to lose touch with the Cowboys and the division leading Giants. Philly need a win badly and are tough to beat at home. Remember, QB McNabb and the Eagles are a veteran team, they have been in many playoff situations and will not wilt under the pressure. The Eagle is mightier than the Ostrich. Take Philly and spot the points.

 

 

 

 

Loser - 3* St. Louis v SEATTLE --- The Rams butted up to the bye week a surprising 4-4, after getting hit with a string of injuries, including QB Bulger. This week, Bulger returns, along with many of his compadres. These Rams, with Joe Vitt as Coach, will be slightly different than the Mike Martz version. These Rams will emphasize the running ability of RB Stephen Jackson and, what has to be, better in game decisions than Martz. The Seahawks went to the desert and took care of their dirty work, in a beat down of the Cardinals. The Seahawks offense is running on all cylinders, with RB Alexander hitting the holes for a new contract and QB Hasselbeck finally coming into his own. This strength has masked a defense that is hurting and susceptible. Remember the Rams hung 31 points on this team, in an Oct. 9th home loss. This is a revenge game and the Rams need the win to get back into the race. Take the rested Rams and the spot. St. Louis.

 

 

 

WINNER - 3* Green Bay v ATLANTA --- The Packers had a chance to ambush the Steelers last week, but Bret Favre turned into Barney Fife and put an end to that pipe dream. Those of you who have read this newsletter the last few years know my feelings about Mr. Favre, he gets all the accolades, but somehow manages not to cover the point spread in crucial situations. Last week was a prime example. No, it’s not sour grapes, I was on Pittsburgh last week, laughing my robust ass off, knowing Mr. Favre had no intention of covering the spread down the stretch, and he didn’t. In previous years, it was Michael Vick who surprised us all with his dominance of the once mighty Packers, especially at Lambeau, now, the tables have turned. No one expects Mr. Favre to show up and beat the mighty Falcons, in a dome no less, but somehow I get the feeling Bret is going to play one of his best games ever. Take Green Bay and the generous spot.

 
Total = 3 - 2 for +5*
 
The O/U's

 

  • Wash v TAMPA UNDER
Loser
  • Houston v INDY UNDER
Loser
  • Jets v CAROLINA UNDER
WINNER
  • Green Bay v ATLANTA OVER
WINNER

Total = 

2 - 2
 
Teasers

  (Teasers MUST include key numbers: 3, 6, 7, 10, 14, etc.)

 

  • TAMPA +7
WINNER
  • CHICAGO -7
WINNER
  • Minny +17
No Play
  • JAX -2.5
WINNER
  • Houston +24
No Play
  • Rams +13
No Play
  • Green Bay +14
WINNER
  • PITTSBURGH -3
WINNER

Total = 

5 - 0
 
HD's v Opp-Turf

 

  • None
No Play

Total = 

0 - 0
   

Closing Lines and Final Scores

 
The Skinny

Legend is available below.

 

NFL WEEK #10

SUNDAY NOVEMBER 13, 2005

Potential BPR Plays in Bold

EST

Line

BPR

Play If

Notes – Trends ATS (Against The Spread)

203 Kansas City Chiefs

1:00

42.5

 

+5.5

B2B R / 0-5 O-U v Buff / 1-3 O-U R / 5-11 R / 3 of 4 R/ Opp-Turf / RB Holmes Doubt, OT Roaf ? /

204 Buffalo Bills

2.5

-1.5

+2.5

6-1 v N-Div aft Bye / 3-1 H / 5-0 H v K.C. / 8-2 H /

205 Wash Redskins

4:15

1.5

 

+7.5

Bounce DOWN / 4-1 v Tampa / 8-2 R v N-Div / 2 DL ?

206 Tampa Bay Bucs

33

-3.5

+1

B2B H / Bounce UP / 2-6 O-U / 1-4 / 12-5 v N-Div/

207 New England Pats

1:00

3

 

+9

Aft Mon L / 4-1 v Miami / REV / 6-1 O-U / 3-5 / 0-3 /11-4 F v Div / 4-11 O-U F v Div /MANY INJ’s esp sec.

208 Miami Dolphins

40

-5

-1

3-5 / 6-1 H v Pats / 2-4 O-U v Pats / B2B H / 1-4 / 3-1 O-U H / 3-10 D v Div /

209 San Fran Niners

1:00

33

 

+13.5

1-4 D > 10 / 3-0 O-U R / 2-6 SU / 4-12 R v N-Div /MANY INJ / QB Pickett make 1st R start, ouch!

210 Chicago Bears

13.5

-9.5

-5.5

5-3 SU / 3-0 / 2-5 O-U / 8-3 N-Div HF / RB Thomas ?

211 Minnesota Vikings

1:00

45

 

+19.5

1-4 O-U R / 3-5 / 0-4 R / REV / Opp-Turf / 4-13 R /2 LB, 2 DL ? / QB Johnson makes his second start /

212 New York Giants

9.5

-15.5

-11.5

6-2 SU / 5-2-1 / 4-1 v Minny / 6-1 H / No TD’s against in 9 quarters / Be careful Giants are ripe with Philly next

213 Arizona Cardinals

1:00

40

 

+13

Opp-Turf / 2-6 / REV / QB Warner starts / MANY INJs

214 Detroit Lions

4

-9

-5

3-5 SU / 5-0 O-U v Ariz / 11-4 aft L / 9-5 H /QB Garcia ? / MANY INJs

215 Baltimore Ravens

1:00

33

 

+16

2-6 SU / 4-1 R v Jax / 2-6 O-U / QB Boller starts /LB Lewis, CB Reed doubtful, 2 DE ?

216 Jacksonville Jags

7

-12

-8

9-5 H / 4-11 O-U H / 5-3 SU / 1-7 Nov / RB Taylor ?

217 Houston Texans

1:00

45

 

+19.5

Opp-Turf / REV / B2B R / 1-7 SU / 3-5 but 2-0 /3-5 O-U / 8-3 D in Nov / RB Davis, CB, 2 C, OG ?

218 Indy Colts

18.5

-15.5

-11.5

Aft Mon W / Bounce DOWN / 7-0 SU / 3-5 O-U /Indy 38 – HOUST 20 Oct 23rd / NFL F > 17 are 5-13

219 New York Jets

4:00

41

 

+12

Opp-Turf / 2-6 SU + ATS / 5-13 D / 0-6 R /QB Bollinger starts, MANY INJ

220 Carolina Panthers

9

-8

-4

6-2 SU / 3-0-1 / 6-1 O-U / 4-13 HF / Playing well

221 Denver Broncos

4:00

3

 

+4

12-4 aft BYE / 8-3 F v Oak / REV / 3-1 SU v Oak / 5-1

222 Oakland Raiders

47

Even

+4

3-5 SU / 4-1 / 1-6 O-U v Denver / 6-2 O-U /0-9 H v Div / 2 CB Out, 2 DL, LB, OG ?

223 St. Louis Rams

4:15

51

 

+11

Aft Bye / REV / 3-0 R v Seattle / 7-1 O-U / 4-4 SU /3-5 but 2-0 / QB Bulger in / Many due back from inj

224 Seattle Seahawks

7

-7

-3

Seattle 37 – RAMS 31, Oct 9th / 6-2 SU /.6-2 O-U / 5-2/3-1 H / DT, SS, OT, 2 CB ?

225 G. Bay Packers

4:15

42

 

+11.5

Opp-Turf / 1-7 SU / 4-4 / 3-1 D / 0-4 O-U R /6-2 D > 7 / 2 RB Out, MANY INJ /

226 Atlanta Falcons

9.5

-7.5

-3.5

5-1 v Packers / 6-2 SU / 5-3 / 5-13 H aft W / 2DL, RB ?

227 Cleveland Browns

8:30

34

 

+15

3-5 SU / REV / 6-3 RD 7.5 to 10 / CB Out, 2 RB OG ?

228 Pittsburgh Steelers

8

-11

-7

4-0 O-U H / 3-0 v Clev / 6-2 SU / 1-3 H /QB Batch starts, RB Parker + Bettis ?, Staley starts

BYE: Cincy, New Orleans, San Diego, Tenn

MONDAY NOVEMBER 14, 2005

229 Dallas Cowboys

9:00

39

 

+5

Opp-Turf / 0-8 O-U R aft Bye /11-6 RD Mon / 2-5 O-U/DAL 33 – Philly 10, Oct 9 / 3-0-1 / 5-3 SU / RB Jones?

230 Philly Eagles

3

-1

+3

4-4 SU / 2-6 / 0-4 / REV / 3-5 O-U / 3-10 O-U Mon /10-2 HF Mon / 12-5 v Dallas / 4-1 H v Dallas /Big Mouth Owens done / MANY INJs

 

 

Information Purposes Only - Not Intended For Anyone Under 21 Years of Age

The Legend

ATS – Against Spread

aft - after

bfr - before

[BPR] - Ben’s Power Rating

B2B – Back To Back

BOUNCE – Opp. result

D – Dog

Def - defense

DDD – Double Digit Dog

DDF - Double Digit Favorite

DIV - Division

F – Favorite

L - Loss

SAND - Sandwich game

 

H – Home

HD – Home Dog

HF – Home Favorite

HOME TEAM – In Capitals

LW – Last Week

LY – Last Year

N-DIV - Non Division

O/U – Over /Under

OFF – Offense

R – Road

REV – Revenge

SU – Straight Up

V - Versus

W - Win