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Picks 6-3-1, +15*/ 2 Weeks

BPR 29-15 Run

 

Volume VII, Week 11

November 17, 2005

2005 Results

      

Week

Year to Date

%

Ben's Picks

+28

3-2 26-21-3 55%
Ben's Power Rating (BPR)

3-2

35-27-4

57%

 

Over/Unders

2-2 21-19-1 53%
Teasers 5-0 42-9 82%
HD's v Opposite Turf 0-0 9-12 43%
The Rant

      

         Ah, Monday Night, what would we do without it? My picks were a respectable 3-2 last week, but on the cusp of a solid 4-1 week. Philly was the play on Monday Night and everything was going according to plan, until there were 3 minutes left. Then in a span of 30 seconds, this game went from a sure winner, to a sure loser. Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good. That was one of those times. The other loser was St Louis, taking it on the chin from the Seahawks. The Rams were in a must win situation and moved the ball all over the field, but field goals won’t cut it against the high flying Seahawks. The winners included a powerful 5* on the Houston Texans. That was the 3rd week in a row the lowly Texans were a 5* selection and they’ve rewarded us every time. Houston hung tuff and Indy had no interest in covering the huge number. Tampa also came through, pulling out all the stops, and punching in a 2 point conversion, to bring home the victory. QB Simms looked much better, and he still might learn how to play this game. Last, but certainly not least, was Bret Favre and the Green Bay Packers. The Pack surprised everyone, but us, and won outright as a 7½ point dog. If you’ll recall, I predicted Favre would have a great day, in a dome no less. I have a feeling Mr. Favre is padding his retirement fund, I just wish I could figure out which way he’s going this Monday Night against Minnesota.

        The BPR (Ben’s Power Rating) had another positive week going 3-2 and is now on a 29-15 run. That’s 6 positive weeks in a row and, at only $60 a year, worth its weight in gold. The winners included Detroit, taking care of business at home, with Joey Harrington at the helm. Arizona must be awful bad if they can make Harrington look good. The Jaguars also came through, beating down the Ravens. It’s beginning to look like the Ravens have quit on the season, keep an eye on them. The Bucs close out the trifecta. The losers were Miami, keeping pace with the Patriots, but failing on a last minute drive. The Giants also fell hard by the wayside, in a SU loss to the Vikings. I had a feeling the G-Men were ripe, but I did not want to wager against the BPR. It’s usually a bad move. San Fran, Houston, Oakland, Green Bay and Pittsburgh did not qualify as plays, because the closing line did not meet our needed number. Remember we are now using the closing lines at the Stardust, as reported by www.donbest.com.

        The “Teaser” plays continued on their stellar path last week with a solid 5-0 showing. That’s a 38-5 run on teasers and if you’re not taking advantage, it’s your own fault. The “O/U’s” split again, going 2-2 and there were no “HD’s v Opp-Turf”. I’ve been preaching to you people about the importance of the weather and those of you who took the time to go to my website, www.benspicks.com, and check it out were amply rewarded. There was a major wind factor in both Chicago and Buffalo and both of those games were well under the total. Sometimes it also pays to be good. Thanks and Good Luck, Ben

 

 
Potential BPR Plays

    Remember compare the BPR [Ben’s Power Rating] to the spread and if there’s a difference of 4 points or more, in your favor, then that’s a potential play. Below are the potential plays for this week; I have already added the 4 points. (Check individual game BPR's for any  line movements):

 

  • CHICAGO Even or +
WINNER
  • CINCY +3.5 or greater
Loser
  • Arizona +11 or greater
No Play
  • Oakland +5.5 or greater
WINNER
  • Detroit +7.5 or greater
Loser
  • GIANTS -5.5 or less
No Play
  • SAN FRAN +4.5 or greater
WINNER
  • Buffalo +10 or greater
Loser
  • Jets +15 or greater
No Play
  • Pittsburgh -9.5 or less
Loser
  • HOUSTON +3 or greater
Loser
  • GREEN BAY -1.5 or less
No Play

Total = 

3 - 5
 

Closing Lines and Final Scores

 
Ben's Picks

All trends are ATS (Against The Spread) unless otherwise specified.

Loser - 5* Indy v CINCY --- The Colts had a letdown last week, but did just enough to get by the Texans and keep their perfect 9-0 season alive. Coach Dungy and QB Manning appear to have a new sense of purpose this year and it seems as though nothing will get in their path, on the road to the Superbowl. The Bengals are finally hitting their stride, due to Coach Lewis’s rebuilding program. They are 7-2 SU and tied with the Steelers for first place. The Cincy offense is good and getting better, with young players like Carson Palmer at the controls. The Bengals defense has a slight weakness against running teams and will be tested here. If the Bengals can slow down the Colts just a little, they have the ability to make this a close game. They also may end the Colts 9 game unbeaten string. The Bengals are rested, hungry, capable, and bad weather may also be a factor in their favor. Cincy.

 

 

 

WINNER - 4* Jax v TENNESSEE --- The Jags are playoff bound and took care of business versus a depleted Ravens squad at home last week. RB Fred Taylor was absent, but the Jags didn’t miss a beat. Taylor is also questionable for this divisional match up. The Titans couldn’t wait to get to the bye week and have many players returning from injury. Tennessee only has two wins, but have been playing hard for Coach Jeff Fisher. The Titans are out of the playoff picture, but will come to play against this division rival. Tennessee has dominated the Jags in recent years, going 5-1 SU. The Titans weakness is their inexperienced secondary, led by rookie Pac Man Jones. Jones is still learning his position and several times has not given a full effort. That doesn’t fly in this league. The Jags don’t fill the air with footballs and thus, the Titans weakness will not be as large as it would be versus a passing team. The Titans are rested, relatively healthy and have the Jags #. I like Tennessee to keep it close and possibly steal the win.

 

 

 

Loser - 4* Arizona v ST. LOUIS --- The Cards are playing out the string, after being bombarded with injuries throughout the year. It’s gotten so bad that last week, in Detroit, they even made Joey Harrington look good. If Harrington can set career numbers versus the Cards, what’s Marc Bulger going to do. The Rams lost a tough one to Seattle last week. St. Louis moved the ball into the Red Zone time after time, but kept settling for field goals. That won’t happen this week. The Rams would still like to climb back into the playoff picture and are hungry for a win. The Cards are 5-20 ATS on the road and that record won’t improve here. St. Louis will take out all their frustrations, from the last week, here. Kurt Warner has a rude homecoming. Take St. Louis and spot the wood.

 

 

 

Loser - 4* Pittsburgh v BALTIMORE --- The Steelers manhandled the Browns, on Sunday Night, and QB Charlie Batch had to leave the game with a broken hand. Big Ben has been rehabbing his knee and will try his hardest to be ready for this game. The Steelers are a solid team, on both sides of the ball, and show up to play hard every week. Baltimore hung tough with Jacksonville, for a half last week, then mailed it in when the outcome was no longer in doubt. QB Kyle Boller returned form injury and his presence made no difference whatsoever. There is something drastically wrong with this team this year. Jamal Lewis is playing not to get hurt, Ray Lewis is injured and no longer wants to be the leader, and Coach Billick has one foot out the door. It all adds up to one thing, losing. I like the Steelers, they’re hungry and still playing for something. The Ravens have given up. Take Pittsburgh.

 

 

 

WINNER - 3* New Orleans v NEW ENGLAND --- The Saints continue their season from hell, after enjoying a well deserved week off. New Orleans has been fairly competitive, despite all the travel and major injury problems. The Pats did everything in their power and barely got by the Dolphins, on the road last week. Despite all their injuries, the Pats offense has been relatively strong, with Brady at the helm. The problem lies on the New England defense and things keep getting worse. The Pats are a shadow of their former selves and I see the rested Saints hanging tough with them and keeping it inside the generous number. The Pats shouldn’t be spotting anyone 10 points right now, and especially not a rested team, with a decent offense. Take New Orleans.

 

 
Total = 2 - 3 for -5*
 
The O/U's

 

  • New Orleans v NEW ENG. OVER
Loser
  • Philly v GIANTS UNDER
Loser
  • Miami v CLEVELAND UNDER
WINNER
  • Pittsburgh v BALTIMORE UNDER
WINNER

Total = 

2 - 2
 
Teasers

  (Teasers MUST include key numbers: 3, 6, 7, 10, 14, etc.)

 

  • CHICAGO +10
No Play
  • TENNESSEE +10
No Play
  • CINCY +10
WINNER
  • New Orleans +17
No Play
  • ST. LOUIS -3
Loser
  • ATLANTA -1
Loser
  • Buffalo +17
Loser
  • Minny +10
WINNER

Total = 

2 - 3
 
HD's v Opp-Turf

 

  • SAN FRAN
WINNER

Total = 

1 - 0
   

Closing Lines and Final Scores

 
The Skinny

Legend is available below.

 

NFL WEEK #11

SUNDAY NOVEMBER 20, 2005

Potential BPR Plays in Bold

EST

Line

BPR

Play If

Notes – Trends ATS (Against The Spread)

391 Carolina Panthers

1:00

3

 

+8.5

7-2 and 13-4 SU / 9-3 R / 4-0 O-U R / 3-0-1

392 Chicago Bears

34.5

-4.5

Even

6-3 SU / 5-3-1 / 2-7 O-U / 2-6 H v N-Div / 2 RB, RT ?

393 Jacksonville Jags

1:00

4

-2.5

+1.5

6-3 SU / 1-7 F v Div / 2-10 RF / 2-7 O-U v Tenn / RB ?

394 Tennessee Titans

39

 

+6.5

Aft Bye/ 4-11 H/ 9-4 v Jax/ 0-4 / 8-17 /Many Inj Retrn

395 Indy Colts

4:15

5.5

 

+4.5

9-0 SU / 5-1 / 13-5 RF / 5-1 O-U v Cin / S, 2 LB, 2 DL?

396 Cincy Bengals

47.5

+3.5

Aft Bye / 2-7 O-U / 7-2 SU / 6-1 D > 6 / 5-3-1 /

397 New Orleans Saints

1:00

45

 

+14.5

Aft Bye / 2-7 SU / 10-0 RD > 7 / 3-0 O-U v Pats/LB, TE ?

398 New England Pats

10

-10.5

-6.5

1-3 H / 5-4 / 6-2 O-U / 13-4 v NFC / MANY INJ !

399 Arizona Cardinals

1:00

49

 

+11

2-7 / 4-2 v Rams / REV / 5-20 R / B2B R / MANY INJ

400 St. Louis Rams

9

-7

-3

3-6 / 4-5 SU / Rams 17 – ARIZ 12, Sept 18 / 7-2 O-U /

401 Tampa Bay Bucs

1:00

38.5

 

+11

6-3 SU / 7-2 v Atl / 0-4 O-U R / 3-8 RD 3.5 to 7 / 2 FS?

402 Atlanta Falcons

6

-7

-3

Aft H L / 6-3 SU / 0-3 O-U v Bucs / 14-5 F v Div / DE?

403 Oakland Raiders

1:00

42

 

+5.5

3-6 SU / 8-2 D v NFC / 4-5 / 2 OG, C, 2 LB ?/ bad secd

404 Wash Redskins

6

-1.5

+2.5

5-4 SU / 6-1 H / 2 DT, 2 FS ? / Still in hunt /

405 Detroit Lions

1:00

39

 

+7.5

4-5 SU / 5-3-1 / QB Garcia or Harrington ?

406 Dallas Cowboys

8

-3.5

+1

6-3 SU / 4-0-1 / 3-7 Aft Mon / Bounce DOWN /

407 Philly Eagles

1:00

41.5

 

+13.5

2-7 / 4-5 SU / Aft Mon L / 4-0 v Giants / Who’s QB ? /

408 New York Giants

7

-9.5

-5.5

Bounce UP / 6-2 H/ 1-4 O-U v Philly/4-14 O-U H v Div

409 Miami Dolphins

1:00

35.5

 

+6

3-6 / 1-3 O-U R / 2-4 D < 3 / QB Frerotte ?

410 Cleveland Browns

2.5

-2

+2

3-5 SU / 2-6 H / 0-4 O-U H / OG, 2 CB, 2 RB ?

411 Seattle Seahawks

4:00

12.5

+3.5

6-3 / 7-2 SU / Bounce DOWN / 3-7 R aft W /4-1 v Niners / 4-0 O-U R /

412 San Fran Niners

42.5

 

+4.5

4-5 / 2-7 SU / 3-7 H /0-3 O-U / No TD last 3 gms / QB?

413 Buffalo Bills

4:15

42

 

+10

4-5 SU / 4-1 / 4-8 R aft W / 3-6 O-U / Who’s QB ?

414 San Diego Chargers

10

-6

-2

5-4 SU / Aft Bye / 8-2 H /11-3 v N-Div /Many inj return

415 New York Jets

4:15

40

 

+15

3-6 / 2-7 SU / 0-5 R / 5-14 D / RT, C ? /

416 Denver Broncos

13

-11

-7

6-1 / 7-2 SU / 3-10 DDF / 6-2 v Jets / 7-2 O-U v Jets /

417 Pittsburgh Steelers

1:00

No

-13.5

-9.5

7-2 SU / 6-3 / 6-1 v Balt / PITT 20 – Balt 19, Oct 31 /0-4 O-U R / 7-2 O-U v Balt / 14-3 R v Div / QB Ben ?

418 Baltimore Ravens

Line

 

+17.5

2-7 SU / 3-6 / REV / 3-11 D / Def Inj/ Offense stinks /

419 Kansas City Chiefs

8:30

6.5

 

+5

B2B R / 5-4 / 1-3 O-U R / 3 DL, OT Roaf ?

420 Houston Texans

43.5

-1

+3

1-8 SU / 3-0 / RB Davis, 3 OL ?, FS, CB OUT /

 

MONDAY NOVEMBER 21, 2005

421 Minnesota Vikings

9:00

45

 

+9.5

4-5 SU / 3-1 / MINNY 23–Pack 20, Oct 23 / 8-2 v Pack/5-0 R v Pack / 9-2 O-U v Pack / Opp-Turf / CB Smoot ?/8-5 RD Mon / 2-6 v Div Mon / 1-4 O-U Mon /

422 G. Bay Packers

3.5

-5.5

-1.5

2-7 SU / 5-2 / REV / 1-3 SU H / 11-3 Mon /

 

 

Information Purposes Only - Not Intended For Anyone Under 21 Years of Age

The Legend

ATS – Against Spread

aft - after

bfr - before

[BPR] - Ben’s Power Rating

B2B – Back To Back

BOUNCE – Opp. result

D – Dog

Def - defense

DDD – Double Digit Dog

DDF - Double Digit Favorite

DIV - Division

F – Favorite

L - Loss

SAND - Sandwich game

 

H – Home

HD – Home Dog

HF – Home Favorite

HOME TEAM – In Capitals

LW – Last Week

LY – Last Year

N-DIV - Non Division

O/U – Over /Under

OFF – Offense

R – Road

REV – Revenge

SU – Straight Up

V - Versus

W - Win