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BPR 32 - 20 Run

 

Volume VII, Week 12

November 23, 2005

2005 Results

      

Week

Year to Date

%

Ben's Picks

+25

2-3 28-24-3 54%
Ben's Power Rating (BPR)

3-5

38-32-4

54%

 

Over/Unders

2-2 23-21-1 52%
Teasers 2-3 44-12 79%
HD's v Opposite Turf 1-0 10-12 46%
The Rant

      

 

        It was a disappointing 2-3 week for Ben’s Picks. Topping off the “L” column was a heartbreaking  5* loss on Cincy. The Bengals got hit by everything the Colts could throw at them, and hung on, until the final round, before going down for the count. Peyton Manning and Carson Palmer filled the air with footballs and I have a feeling we’re going to see a rematch of this game come playoff time. Pittsburgh couldn’t get the job done, with Tommy “Wrong Way” Maddox at the helm. The Ravens fought the Steelers tooth and nail and finally got the decision in OT. Remind me never to bet on Maddox again, the guy sucks. The Rams turned their horns and ran, in a home loss to the Cardinals. Arizona is horrible on the road, but Kurt Warner willed them to a revenge win. St. Louis still had an outside shot at the playoffs, what a way to go down. The winners included the Titans, sneaking in the back door, on the playoff bound Jags. Tennessee gave it all they had, but they don’t have much. New Orleans hung tough with the soon to be former Champs. New England almost let the victory get away in the final minute. The Pats can still get by the mediocre teams, but they won’t have enough come crunch time.

        The BPR (Ben’s Power Rating) had a rare losing week going 3-5. That’s the first losing week in the last 7, but the BPR is still on a 32-20 run. Chicago was a solid winner, and don’t look now, but the Bears are primed to take their division. Chicago doesn’t do anything fancy but line up and knock your socks off. I don’t think anyone is going to enjoy facing them come January. Oakland surprised everyone in D.C., beating the Redskins outright. The Skins were in prime playoff position, but have lost the last 2. The Niners almost pulled off the upset, at home, versus the Seahawks. Seattle was caught napping and San Fran was a failed 2 point conversion away from forcing OT. The losers included Detroit, taking their medicine in Big D. The Cowboys are racking up the wins, but I’m anxious to see what happens when they play the big boys. It’s going to be an interesting game come Thanksgiving Day against Denver. Houston got run over, on their own field, by the Chiefs. Kansas City was looking for someone to lay a beat down on and found the perfect patsy. The Bills got a dose of reality in San Diego. The Chargers were running a track meet, while the Bills showed up for a wrestling match. The once mighty Buffalo defense has slowly imploded, this year, and it’s going to get a lot worse before it gets any better. QB J.P. Losman showed some promise, but this defense is old, injured and doesn’t care. Are you listening Sam Adams? Cincy and Pittsburgh round out the losers. Arizona, Green Bay and the Jets did not qualify as plays because the closing line did not meet our needed number. Speaking of Green Bay, did you see our old “buddy” Bret Favre up to his usual tricks on Monday Night? When are people going see through this guy? Don’t be surprised if he turns it around in Philly this week.

        The “Teasers” finally hit a brick wall last week, going 1-4. We were rolling along pretty good, but it had to come to an end sooner or later. The “O/U’s” were 2-2 again and the “HD’s” went 1-0. Don’t forget to check the weather, it’s going to be freezing this weekend in the Northeast. Thanks and Good Luck, Ben

 

 
Potential BPR Plays

    Remember compare the BPR [Ben’s Power Rating] to the spread and if there’s a difference of 4 points or more, in your favor, then that’s a potential play. Below are the potential plays for this week; I have already added the 4 points. (Check individual game BPR's for any  line movements):

 

  • DETROIT +2.5 or greater
Loser
  • DALLAS +3.5 or greater
No Play
  • CINCY -11 or less
WINNER
  • Chicago Even or +
WINNER
  • Cleveland +5 or greater
No Play
  • San Fran +4 or greater
Loser
  • HOUSTON +1.5 or greater
Loser
  • Miami +8 or greater
No Play
  • Giants +4 or greater
WINNER
  • Green Bay +4 or greater
Loser
  • JETS -2.5 or less
Loser
  • Pittsburgh +8.5 or greater
No Play

Total = 

3 - 5
 

Closing Lines and Final Scores

 
Ben's Picks

All trends are ATS (Against The Spread) unless otherwise specified.

Thanksgiving Day 12:30 (EST)

Loser - 4* Atlanta v DETROIT --- The Falcons playoff hopes are reeling, after 2 straight home loses. Last week, against Tampa, Atlanta out gained the Bucs but couldn’t overcome a 13 point deficit. That outcome is just another indictment of Michael Vick’s inability to throw the ball down the field, no matter what he says to the contrary. The Lions took a whooping in Big D last week. Joey Harrington made the start and it may be one of his last. Jeff Garcia should be healthy enough to return here and his presence is a major step in the right direction. The Lions are a much different team at home and always play tough. Detroit is also getting several people back from injury. I like the home team, getting points, on a short week, with the added boost of a QB that actually knows how to play the game. Don’t be a turkey, take Detroit.

 

 

 

WINNER - 5* New England v KANSAS CITY --- The Pats barely got by the downtrodden Saints last week and are still in complete control of their division, despite a major rash of injuries. New England stands at 6-4 SU, but is only a shell of the mighty Superbowl teams of the past 2 years. The injury bug has hit the hardest in the Pats secondary and that is a bad omen, when facing the high powered Chiefs, on the road. K.C. split their road trip, first losing in Buffalo, then forcing their will on the helpless Titans. The Chiefs also stand at 6-4 SU, but are in a dogfight for a wildcard berth. The Chiefs are hungry and play much better at home. New England is in for a rude awakening. Don’t spend too much time at the fridge, making your turkey sandwich, you might miss a couple of TD’s. Take Kansas City in a shootout.

 

 

 

Loser - 5* Carolina v BUFFALO --- The Panthers traveled to the Windy City last week and left with their collective tails between their legs. Carolina could only muster 3 points, against the tough Bears defense. The Panthers usually play to the level of their competition and that is not a good trait to have, when spotting points on the road. The Bills slim playoffs hopes went out the window, with the bath water, after the Chargers ran roughshod over them last week. Buffalo never knew what hit them, as the Chargers scored at will. The Panthers are not the Chargers. The Bills were totally embarrassed last week and are a much different team, at home. Wednesday’s weather report is are predicting bitter cold the next few days and a possibility of 2 feet, yes I said 2 feet, of snow over the Thanksgiving holiday. I know, because I’m going to have to shovel it and my back’s hurting already. The Panthers better bring their long underwear, because it’s going to be a long cold afternoon. Take Buffalo and the generous 4 points.

 

 

 

Loser - 5* Green Bay v PHILLY --- Yes, Green Bay. You all know how I feel about Bret Favre, and if you had your money on the Packers last Monday night, you all know why. That interception run back for a TD, before half, and a key throw in the ground in the final minutes are prime examples. I wasn’t sure how our “Buddy” Bret was going to play that game, considering it’s probably going to be one of his last prime time appearances. Well, the proof is in the pudding and all the Bret backers were eating “tap-ioca” last week. Now, the worm turns in the opposite direction. Philly’s last 2 losses to division rivals Dallas and New York sealed their fate for the year. They have no legitimate shot at the playoffs and have now packed it in for the season. The “pudding” here is the fact that Donovan McNabb opted to have his surgery this week and is done for the year. Philly has been a perennial playoff team, the last few years, and now has nothing to play for, the veterans on this team have no incentive. Throw in the fact that the Eagles would love to have a high draft pick and I get the feeling Philly won’t be trying very hard. It’s the perfect time for Bret to suddenly awaken the ghosts of the playoff past and get revenge on the Eagles. Bret’s trying to win and the Eagles are trying to lose. It’s a perfect combo. Take Green Bay, the Packers win outright. Check out the money line.

 

 

 

Loser - 3* Cleveland v MINNESOTA --- The new Browns come to play every week and rarely get blown out. Cleveland has a solid defense and Trent Dilfer doesn’t usually get into trouble. Minnesota is off one of their biggest games of the year, a Monday Night win over the hated Packers. The Vikings have finally “righted the ship”, so to speak, after the “Love Boat” incident. Now, its time for a letdown, in a perfect sandwich setup, Detroit is up next. The Vikings no longer have a high powered offense and the running game was their salvation in Green Bay. The Browns will not lose sight of the Vikings and will also have a shot to win, in the late going. Take the Browns and the 4.5 points, it should edge higher by game time.

 

 
Total = 1 - 4 for -12*
 
The O/U's

 

  • New England v K.C. OVER
Loser
  • Cleveland v MINNY UNDER
WINNER
  • Miami v OAKLAND UNDER
Loser
  • Giants v SEATTLE OVER
Loser

Total = 

1 - 3
 
Teasers

  (Teasers MUST include key numbers: 3, 6, 7, 10, 14, etc.)

 

  • DETROIT +10
No Play
  • DALLAS +10
No Play
  • CINCY -3
No Play
  • BUFFALO +10
No Play
  • Cleveland +10
Loser
  • TENNESSEE -2.5
No Play
  • Green Bay +10
WINNER
  • JETS +7
No Play

Total = 

1 - 1
 
HD's v Opp-Turf

 

  • DALLAS
Loser
  • BUFFALO
Loser
  • HOUSTON
Loser

Total = 

0 - 3
   

Closing Lines and Final Scores

 
The Skinny

Legend is available below.

 

NFL WEEK #12

THURSDAY NOVEMBER 24, 2005

Potential BPR Plays in Bold

EST

Line

BPR

Play If

Notes – Trends ATS (Against The Spread)

105 Atlanta Falcons

12:30

3

 

+5.5

Aft 2 SU L H / 2-2 R / 6-4 O-U / 6-4 SU / 2 DL ?

106 Detroit Lions

42

-1.5

+2.5

4-6 SU / 1-3 / 3-1-1 H / QB Garcia Prob, 2 LB ?

107 Denver Broncos

4:15

2

 

+4.5

8-2 SU / 7-3 O-U / 5-0 / 3-0 O-U v Dallas

108 Dallas Cowboys

41

+3.5

7-3 SU / 4-0 / 0-4 O-U H / OT Adams OUT

 

SUNDAY NOVEMBER 27, 2005

171 New England Pats

1:00

52

 

+8

6-4 SU / 1-4 / 3-1 O-U R / 5-1 v K.C. / MANY INJ

172 Kansas City Chiefs

3

-4

Even

6-4 SU / 4-2 / 3-1 H / 4-2 O-U v Pats / FS, DT, OT ?

173 Baltimore Ravens

1:00

37

 

+19

3-7 SU/ 1-4 R/ REV/ 3-7 O-U/Bounce DOWN/2CB, 2OL?

174 Cincy Bengals

9

-15

-11

7-3 SU / 3-7 O-U / Cincy 21 – BALT 9, Nov 6 / S, CB ?

175 Carolina Panthers

1:00

4

-2

+2

B2B R / 7-3 SU / 3-1 / 4-1 O-U R / 3-0 O-U v Buff

176 Buffalo Bills

36.5

 

+6

4-6 SU / 4-1 H / QB Holcomb or Losman ?

177 Chicago Bears

1:00

32.5

-4.5

Even

7-3 SU / 2-1-1 R / 2-6 O-U / 4-1-1 / RB Benson Out

178 Tampa Bay Bucs

3

 

+8.5

7-3 SU / 2-4-1 / 2-2-1 H / 2 FS ? /

179 San Diego Chargers

1:00

3

-2.5

+1.5

7-3 SU / 4-1 / 3-1-1 R / Bounce DOWN / 2 LB, OT ?

180 Wash. Redskins

44

 

+6.5

5-5 SU / 3-2 H / 1-2-1 / Aft H L / Bounce UP

181 Cleveland Browns

1:00

39.5

 

+5

4-6 SU / 0-3 R / 2-7 O-U / FS, RB, OG ?

182 Minnesota Vikings

-4.5

-1

+3

5-5 SU / 3-0 / 3-1 H / Aft Mon W / Bounce DOWN

183 San Fran Niners

1:00

42.5

 

+4

2-8 SU / 1-3 R / 3-1 O-U R / QB ?, MANY INJ

184 Tennessee Titans

7.5

Even

+4

2-7 SU / 4-6 / 1-4 / B2B H /

185 St. Louis Rams

1:00

4

 

+4.5

4-6 SU / 8-2 O-U / 2-6/ 1-4 R /QB Bulger OUT, S, CB?

186 Houston Texans

45

-2.5

+1.5

1-9 SU / 3-1 / 1-4 H / B2B H / CB, FS ?

187 Jacksonville Jags

4:00

3

-2.5

+1.5

7-3 SU / B2B R / 3-2 R / RB Taylor ?

188 Arizona Cardinals

41.5

 

+6.5

3-7 SU / 1-3 / 1-2 H / 7-2 O-U / MANY INJ

189 Miami Dolphins

4:00

42

 

+8

3-7 SU / 1-6 / 1-4 R / 1-4 R O-U / LB Thomas, Seau ?

190 Oakland Raiders

7

-4

Even

4-6 SU / 2-3 H / 0-4 O-U v Miami / 4-6 O-U / LB, OT, DT?

191 New York Giants

4:15

47

 

+4

7-3 SU / 1-1-1 R /Bounce DOWN / SS, LB, DT, LT ?

192 Seattle Seahawks

4.5

Even

+4

8-2 SU / 6-4 / 4-1 H / LB, OT, DT ?

193 G. Bay Packers

4:15

41

 

+4

Aft Mon L / 2-8 SU / 3-2 R / REV / LB, CB, DT ?

194 Philly Eagles

4.5

Even

+4

4-6 SU / 0-6 / 2-8 / 1-3 H / McNabb Done, MANY INJ / 5-1 v Packers / 2-4 O-u v Pack

195 New Orleans Saints

8:30

1.5

 

+10.5

2-8 SU / 2-4 R / 4-2 O-U R /

196 New York Jets

37

-6.5

-2.5

2-8 SU / 1-4 / 3-1 H / QB Bollinger Starts, MANY INJ

 

MONDAY NOVEMBER 28, 2005

197 Pittsburgh Steelers

9:00

No

 

+8.5

Big Ben + Batch ? / Do Not Play if Maddox starts /7-3 SU / 4-1 R / 19-7 Mon / 8-5 RD Mon / 2 TE, 2 LB ?

198 Indy Colts

Line

-4.5

Even

10-0 SU / 7-3 / 6-1 / 2-2 H / 6-1 O-U Mon/2 DL, 2 LB ?

 

 

Information Purposes Only - Not Intended For Anyone Under 21 Years of Age

The Legend

ATS – Against Spread

aft - after

bfr - before

[BPR] - Ben’s Power Rating

B2B – Back To Back

BOUNCE – Opp. result

D – Dog

Def - defense

DDD – Double Digit Dog

DDF - Double Digit Favorite

DIV - Division

F – Favorite

L - Loss

SAND - Sandwich game

 

H – Home

HD – Home Dog

HF – Home Favorite

HOME TEAM – In Capitals

LW – Last Week

LY – Last Year

N-DIV - Non Division

O/U – Over /Under

OFF – Offense

R – Road

REV – Revenge

SU – Straight Up

V - Versus

W - Win