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We Don't Deserve a Headline

 

Volume VII, Week 13

December 1, 2005

2005 Results

      

Week

Year to Date

%

Ben's Picks

+11

1-4 29-28-3 51%
Ben's Power Rating (BPR)

3-5

41-37-4

53%

 

Over/Unders

1-3 24-24-1 50%
Teasers 1-1 45-13 79%
HD's v Opposite Turf 0-3 10-15 40%
The Rant

      

        OUCH! That hurt. It was an embarrassing 1-4 Week 12 for Ben’s Picks and a disappointing 3-5 for the BPR (Ben’s Power Rating). The BPR results are especially disappointing because it is now back to back 3-5 losing weeks. That usually does not happen to the BRR this late into the season. An occasional losing week is fine, but you have to be careful when it doubles up on you. The other disturbing fact, to me anyway, is that the Favorites are covering at an alarming rate. Those of you that are Favorite betters are probably cleaning up, myself, a Dog player, is obviously in deep do-do. It doesn’t help matters that 2 of the losses were by a mere ˝ point. It only makes it harder to take. The Bills, for instance, held a late lead on Carolina, and were getting 3˝ points. Buffalo fizzled down the stretch and lost, at home, 13-9. Then especially disconcerting was Green Bay and our old “Buddy” Bret Favre. The Packers also held a late lead, +4˝ points, and fumbled twice to gift wrap the Eagles a 5 point win. It was my contention that “Buddy Bret” would be going all out. Boy, was I wrong. I watched a replay of the game and “Buddy Bret” was missing guys left, right, in the ground and over the top. It got so bad in the last 2 minutes, while the Pack still had a chance, “Buddy Bret” had to throw, not 1, but 2 interceptions into the end zone, to end the game. The 1st one  was called back for a “Roughing The Cheater” penalty. Nice going Bret, hope you enjoy your Golden Parachute, in hell. Sorry guys, and gal, I’m a little bitter, I should have known better than to ever trust a cheater. If anyone out there doubts it, I now have the proof on DVD. Cleveland was also a loser, in Minnesota, after making 5 turnovers. Last, but certainly not least, the Lions turned me into a Turkey on Thanksgiving. I did not enjoy my Holiday Dinner and, it turns out, Mike Mariucci will be, rightfully, enjoying the unemployment line. That’s what Mariucci gets, for teaming up with that wind bag, Matt Millen. The lone winner was Kansas City, sacking up at home, and handing it to the depleted Patriots. New England will probably make it to the Playoff Feast, but they’ll be sitting at the kids table.

        The BPR winners included Cincy, laying a first half beat down on the Ravens and hanging on to cover the big number. The Giants also hung tough, at Seattle, only to see their field goal kicker implode under pressure. Chicago, rounds out the trifecta with another defensive gem in Tampa. Chris Simms fumbled early and that was all the Bears needed to beat the Bucs. Chicago’s defense is impressive, but they won’t be able to do it alone in the postseason. The losers included San Fran, trying to keep up with the Titans, but fading in the second half. Houston did just the opposite, getting off to a 21 point half time lead and blowing it in overtime, to 3rd string QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick went to Harvard for Gods sake. The Jets are so bad they can’t even beat the Saints at home. The Lions and the Packers close out the pentagon of losers. Cleveland, Miami, and Pittsburgh did not qualify as plays.

        Now to clear up some accounting, last week I reported that I went 1-4 in Teaser Plays, I mistakenly counted the Bengals as a loser, but they covered, with the added 6 points, against Indy in Week 11. That makes me 2-3 for the week, not 1-4, and my overall record is 44-12, not 43-13. Hopefully things will turn around this week. Thanks and Good Luck, Ben

 
Potential BPR Plays

    Remember compare the BPR [Ben’s Power Rating] to the spread and if there’s a difference of 4 points or more, in your favor, then that’s a potential play. Below are the potential plays for this week; I have already added the 4 points. (Check individual game BPR's for any  line movements):

 

  • Buffalo +5.5 or greater
No Play
  • Houston +2.5 or greater
WINNER
  • Tennessee +17.5 or greater
No Play
  • CLEVELAND +4.5 or greater
No Play
  • GIANTS -2 or less
No Play
  • CHICAGO -6.5 or less
WINNER
  • DETROIT +1 or greater
Loser
  • CAROLINA -1 or less
No Play
  • SAN FRAN -3.5 or less
Loser
  • ST. LOUIS +1 or greater
Loser
  • Jets +12.5 or greater
No Play
  • Oakland +11.5 or greater
Loser
  • PHILLY +6 or greater
No Play

Total = 

2 - 4
 

Closing Lines and Final Scores

 
Ben's Picks

All trends are ATS (Against The Spread) unless otherwise specified.

Monday Night

WINNER - 5* Seattle v PHILLY --- The Seahawks have an impressive 9-2 SU record and escaped last week with an overtime victory against the Giants. RB Alexander has been ripping it up, on the ground, and QB Hasselbeck has kept clean for the most part. The Eagles accepted Mr. Favre’s generous gifts last week and some people may even think they have something to play for. The truth be told, the Eagles offensive line is in a shambles and QB Mike McMahon looked terrible against the Packers mediocre defense. Seattle does not get to play many primetime games and they will be primed for this match up, even though they are a lock to win their division. The bottom line here is, the Seahawks are climbing higher and higher, while the Eagles are freefalling and have yet to hit the bottom. Take Seattle and spot the points.

 

 

 

Loser - 4* Cincy v PITTSBURGH --- The Bengals beat up on the lowly Ravens last week, now it’s their third chance of the season, to prove they can play with the big boys. Two weeks ago Indy ran them around in circles and earlier in the season, these same Steelers, laid a beat down on them 27-13. Both of those games happened in Cincy. Pittsburgh embarrassed themselves on National TV, in Indy, on Monday night. Big Ben returned from injury, but the Steelers could not muster any offense and got lucky to put up a measly 7 points. Pittsburgh is only 7-3 SU and a full game behind the Bengals. The Steelers need a win here or, not only will their division hopes be fading, but they will be behind the pack in the Wild Card race. Pittsburgh has had the Bengals number the last few years and the Steelers are desperate. Take Pittsburgh and spot the points.

 

 

 

Loser - 4* Dallas v GIANTS --- The Boys bit the big one, in a Thanksgiving OT loss to the Broncos. Denver is playing great ball, but the Cowboys hung tough. Dallas has gotten stronger as the season goes along, especially on defense. On October 16th the Cowboys totally shut down the Giants, in a Monday Night OT win, 16-13. The Giants battled the Seahawks until the bitter end last week, and the end was bitter, because their kicker missed 3 field goals that would have won the game. This is a battle for 1st place in the division and both of these teams are much improved, but I feel the Boys are slightly better, because they posses the stronger defense. Take the better team, plus the points. Hopefully it goes up to 3˝ by game time. Dallas.

 

 

 

WINNER - 4* Denver v KANSAS CITY --- The Broncos escaped Dallas with an OT victory on Thanksgiving. Denver is 9-2 SU and a full 2 games up on K.C. and San Diego. On September 26, the Broncos beat up on these same Chiefs, 30-10. Kansas City disposed of the World Champs, at Arrowhead, last week and have gotten their groove back, the last 2 games. OT Willie Roaf should be back from injury and his presence makes a world of difference, especially against Denver’s retreaded defensive line. This is a huge game for the Chiefs, they have 2 tough road games on deck and if they lose this one, they can wave their playoff chances bye-bye. The Chiefs are tough at Arrowhead and are 4-1 at home, against Denver. Take Kansas City and the slight spot and enjoy the battle.

 

 

 

WINNER - 3* Buffalo v MIAMI --- The Bills faded down the stretch and QB J.P. Losman just didn’t have enough to get Buffalo over the hump, against Carolina. The Bills have faced a tough 4 game stretch and their playoff hopes are all but gone. No matter here, Buffalo always gets up for Miami. The Dolphins surprised everyone last week and quieted the Black Hole, in a thorough beat down of the Raiders. Miami is hurting at the LB position and doesn’t have much, but apparently they’ve got plenty more than the bus chasing Raiders. Miami should not be spotting anyone 4 points and especially not in a rivalry game. Take Buffalo and the points, it should be a close one.

 

 

 
Total = 3 - 2 for +4*
 
The O/U's

 

  • Tenn v INDY OVER
Loser
  • Jax v CLEVELAND UNDER
Loser
  • Minny v DETROIT UNDER
WINNER
  • Tampa v NEW ORLEANS UNDER
WINNER

Total = 

2 - 2
 
Teasers

  (Teasers MUST include key numbers: 3, 6, 7, 10, 14, etc.)

 

  • Buffalo +10
WINNER
  • Houston +14
No Play
  • Dallas +8
WINNER
  • CHICAGO -2.5
WINNER
  • NEW ORLEANS +10
No Play
  • NEW ENGLAND -6
WINNER
  • KANSAS CITY +7
WINNER
  • SAN DIEGO -6
WINNER

Total = 

6 - 0
 
HD's v Opp-Turf

 

  • ST. LOUIS
Loser
  • PHILLY
Loser

Total = 

0 - 2
   

Closing Lines and Final Scores

 
The Skinny

Legend is available below.

 

NFL WEEK #13

SUNDAY DECEMBER 4, 2005

Potential BPR Plays in Bold

EST

Line

BPR

Play If

Notes – Trends ATS (Against The Spread)

221 Buffalo Bills

1:00

35

 

+5.5

4-7 SU/ 1-4 R / BUF 20 – Miami 14, Oct 9/3-0 v Miami

222 Miami Dolphins

4

-2.5

+1.5

4-7 SU / 8-3 SU H v Buf / REV / 2-6 /

223 Cincy Bengals

1:00

41.5

 

+8.5

8-3 SU / REV / 1-6 SU v Pitt / 0-3 v Pitt / for 1st place /

224 Pittsburgh Steelers

3.5

-4.5

Even

7-4 SU / Aft Mon L / 5-0 O-U H / Pitt 27 – CIN 13, Oct 23

225 Houston Texans

1:00

37

-1.5

+2.5

1-10 SU / 4-7 / 0-2 / 3-2 R /

226 Baltimore Ravens

7.5

 

+4.5

3-8 SU / 1-3 / 0-5 O-U H / Shouldn’t spot anyone > 7

227 Tennessee Titans

1:00

51

 

+17.5

3-8 SU / 5-6 / 2-0 / REV / 3-1 O-U v Indy / 0-5 v Indy /

228 Indy Colts

16

-13.5

-9.5

11-0 SU/ Aft Mon W / Indy 31 – TENN 10, Oct 2/ 7-1

229 Jacksonville Jags

1:00

3

+3.5

8-3 SU / B2B2B R / 3-10 RF / 4-1 O-U R / QB Garard/

230 Cleveland Browns

34

 

+4.5

4-7 SU / 0-4 O-U H / 2-5 / QB ? /

231 Dallas Cowboys

1:00

42

 

+10

7-4 SU / Aft Thur / DAL 16 – Giants 13, Oct 16 / for 1st

232 New York Giants

3

-6

-2

7-4 SU / 4-1 / 1-3 O-U v Dallas / 4-1 O-U H / REV /

233 Green Bay Packers

1:00

31

 

+14.5

2-9 SU / 2-4 / 8-2 R v Chic / 5-1 O-U v Chic /

234 Chicago Bears

7

-10.5

-6.5

8-3 SU / 5-1 / 2-8 O-U / 5-1 O-U v Packers /

235 Minnesota Vikings

1:00

3

 

+7

6-5 SU / MIN 27 – Det 14, Nov 6 / 7-0 v Det / 4-0 /

236 Detroit Lions

38.5

-3

+1

4-7 SU / Aft Thur / NEW COACH/ 1-4/ 7-3 v Min/ REV

237 Atlanta Falcons

1:00

43

 

+9

7-4 SU / Aft Thur / 7-2 v Car / 2-5 O-U v Car /

238 Carolina Panthers

3

-5

-1

8-3 SU / 4-1 / 7-1 SU / 0-3 O-U /

239 Tampa Bay Bucs

1:00

3.5

-4.5

Even

7-4 SU / 2-6-1 / 1-3 R / 1-4 O-U R /

240 New Orleans Saints

at Baton Rouge, LA.

39

 

+8.5

3-8 SU / 2-0 / 4-2 v Tampa / 1-4 O-U v Tampa /

241 Arizona Cardinals

4:00

3

 

+11.5

3-8 SU + ATS / ARZ 31 – Niners 14, Oct 2 / 1-5 R /

242 San Fran Niners

44

-7.5

-3.5

2-9 SU / 4-2 H / 7-4 O-U / REV / Who’s QB ? C out /

243 Wash. Redskins

4:00

3

 

+7

5-6 SU / 1-3-1 / 5-1 v Rams / Last 3 games tough losses

244 St. Louis Rams

46

-3

+1

5-6 SU / 4-1 / 9-2 O-U / OT Pace? Who’s QB?

245 New York Jets

4:15

42

 

+12.5

2-9 SU / 0-8 R / 5-16 D /

246 New England Pats

10

-8.5

-4.5

6-5 SU / 1-5 / 5-1 v Jets / 10-2 v Div / 15-6 H /

247 Denver Broncos

4:15

1.5

-1

+3

9-2 SU / Aft Thur/ DEN 30 – Chiefs 10, Sept 26 / 5-1-1/ 5-1 v Chiefs / 8-3 O-U / 2-2-1 R /

248 Kansas City Chiefs

45.5

 

+5

7-4 SU / 5-2 / REV / 4-1 H v Den / 8-3 SU H v Den/

249 Oakland Raiders

8:30

50.5

 

+11.5

4-7 SU / 1-3 / 1-3 O-U R /REV / Infighting players

250 San Diego Chargers

11

-7.5

-3.5

7-4 SU / 7-3-1 / 2-2 H / 3-7 O-U  H v Oak / 5-0 v Oak /Chargers 27 – OAK 14, Oct 16 / Need W’s

 

MONDAY DECEMBER 5, 2005

251 Seattle Seahawks

9:00

4

-2

+2

9-2 SU / 6-5 / 0-2 / 2-3 R / 5-0 O-U R /

252 Philly Eagles

43

 

+6

5-6 SU / B2B H / 1-6 / 2-3 H / 8-2 Mon /

 

 

Information Purposes Only - Not Intended For Anyone Under 21 Years of Age

The Legend

ATS – Against Spread

aft - after

bfr - before

[BPR] - Ben’s Power Rating

B2B – Back To Back

BOUNCE – Opp. result

D – Dog

Def - defense

DDD – Double Digit Dog

DDF - Double Digit Favorite

DIV - Division

F – Favorite

L - Loss

SAND - Sandwich game

 

H – Home

HD – Home Dog

HF – Home Favorite

HOME TEAM – In Capitals

LW – Last Week

LY – Last Year

N-DIV - Non Division

O/U – Over /Under

OFF – Offense

R – Road

REV – Revenge

SU – Straight Up

V - Versus

W - Win