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5* Seattle Crushes 42-0

 

Volume VII, Week 14

December 8, 2005

2005 Results

      

Week

Year to Date

%

Ben's Picks

+17

3-2 32-30-3 52%
Ben's Power Rating (BPR)

2-4

43-41-4

51%

 

Over/Unders

2-2 26-26-1 50%
Teasers 6-0 51-13 80%
HD's v Opposite Turf 0-2 10-17 37%
The Rant

      

 

        It was a much better outcome last week, as the picks made a nice comeback, going 3-2 and hitting on a Monday Night 5*. You can take your hand off the ripcord now Johnny. Seattle crushed on Monday, scoring early, and often, embarrassing the Eagles on Reggie White Night. Philly has nothing to play for and it showed. The Eagles have been a perennial Superbowl contender and when the wheels come off, it reminds me of Mario Andretti hitting a brick wall. The Chiefs sacked up at home and got the one they had to have against first placed Denver. Jake Plummer had a shot to put the Broncos back on top, but reverted back to his old ways. They can talk all they want about the new Jake, but it doesn’t matter until, he does it when it matters. The Bills close out the winners ATS, but they hardly were winners. The Bills thundered out of the gate and got out to a quick 21-0 lead. Then they got hit by lightning, blowing that 20 point lead in the forth quarter. They have done this time and again under Mike Malarkey, this one may be the last straw. The Bills have only scored 1 TD in the forth quarter all year and that all comes down to coaching. Mularkey is also trying to suspend WR Eric Moulds and when the veterans don’t have your back, it’s only a matter of time before the owner says baa-bye. It looks as though there’s going to be a shakeup in the Buf this year. The losers included Pittsburgh getting throttled by the Bengals at home. The Steelers are now officially in big trouble. They can’t run the ball like in years past and Big Ben is not a come from behind QB. Last, but not the least of the losers was Dallas. The Cowboys tried to match the Giants in a defensive struggle, but Drew Bledsoe reverted back to his old form and literally handed the Giants a TD. I want to personally apologize to anyone who bet this game on my recommendation. I should’ve known Bledsoe can’t sack up on the road. I’ve seen it happen too many times before. Sorry guys, and gal.

        The BPR (Ben’s Power Rating) had another losing week going 2-4 and I am beginning to get concerned, that makes 3 losing weeks in a row. The BPR is usually at its best during this part of the season and I am at a loss to explain why things are not clicking. It may have to do with all the Favorites that have been cashing in. The last 2 weeks alone, Favorites have cashed in at 24-8 and that is unheard of. The Books are taking a beating and something has to give soon, they can’t make the lines high enough.

        The Teasers came back to life going 6-0 and reaching back to 80% winners. The O/U’s kept steady again going 2-2. The HD’s v Opp-Turf have been putrid of late, as have all dogs, going 0-2 and on an 0-5 run. It may be time to poop can this system. We’ll ride it out until the end of the year.

        It is now time for the stretch run, as there are only 4 game left to the season. This is the time of year you not only have to look at the strengths and weaknesses of teams, but you also have to gage their mental state. Some have everything to play for, while others are playing out the string. It would be wise to double think your plays. Don’t forget to check the weather and injuries, www.benspicks.com. Good Luck, Ben
 

 

 

Potential BPR Plays

    Remember compare the BPR [Ben’s Power Rating] to the spread and if there’s a difference of 4 points or more, in your favor, then that’s a potential play. Below are the potential plays for this week; I have already added the 4 points. (Check individual game BPR's for any  line movements):

 

  • CAROLINA -3.5 or less
No Play
  • BUFFALO +1 or greater
Loser
  • St. Louis +7 or greater
Loser
  • Chicago Even or +
Loser
  • JETS +4.5 or greater
No Play
  • JAX +7.5 or greater
Tie
  • Houston +5.5 or greater
WINNER
  • Cleveland +12.5 or greater
No Play
  • ARIZONA +4.5 or greater
No Play
  • San Fran +12.5 or greater
Loser
  • Miami +13 or greater
No Play
  • Detroit +6.5 or greater
WINNER
  • ATLANTA -8.5 or less
No Play

Total = 

2 - 4 - 1
 

Closing Lines and Final Scores

 
Ben's Picks

All trends are ATS (Against The Spread) unless otherwise specified.

Tie - 5* Indy v JAX --- The Colts are inching closer to perfection and had an easy time of it last week, cutting the Titans down to size. Indy can seem to do no wrong this year, whatever they touch turns into a W. The Jags let the Browns have a little fun in the first half, in cold Cleveland last week. Then Jags QB David Garrard dropped the hammer on the Browns. Garrard is a backup, but he is big, and mobile, and some people think he’s even better then Leftwich. Garrard will be starting here and his mobility and running ability are just another thing the Colts have to worry about. There is also a possibility RB Fred Taylor could return for this match up and his presence is a bonus. The Jags always play the Colts tough and earlier this year, only lost by 7 in Indy. The Colts are facing a motivated team, the Jags know they have a shot to knock the Colts off their perch. I like Jacksonville and the generous spot at home. Upset in the making?

 

 

 

Monday Night

Loser - 5* New Orleans v ATLANTA --- The Saints are injury riddled, but gave the Bucs all they could handle, at their home away from home, Baton Rouge. New Orleans hasn’t had much to play for, for a long time now, but they’ve been competing every week. The Falcons are in a tailspin. They have won only one of their last 4 games and are in danger of falling out of the playoff hunt, if they lose here. Michael Vick has tried to stay in the pocket, but that not his strength and it hasn’t been working out for him. The Saints are in a revenge mode, after losing to the Falcons 34-31, in a game they should have won. New Orleans always plays the Falcons tough and are 4-1 ATS against them. This is a Monday Night affair and the Saints will have one last shot to remind the world, they’ve gotten the short end of the stick. That stick may be short, but it’s where it’s  placed that really has the Saints mad, OUCH!. Take New Orleans and the generous spot.

 

 

 

WINNER - 4* Cleveland v CINCY --- The Browns hung around for the first half, at home versus Jacksonville, then rookie QB Charlie Frye woke up. The Browns are a little undermanned, but come to play every week and there’s a good possibility QB Trent Dilfer will be back in the saddle for this match up. The Bengals are flying high, after finally getting by the Steelers. Cincy shut down the Pittsburgh run and made Big Ben try to match TD’s with them. The strategy worked, as the Steelers committed numerous turnovers and played right into the Bengals paws. There is no way Cincy will be able to match the intensity of a week ago. Last week, first place and a playoff position were on the line. This week the Bengals are 9-3 SU and sitting pretty 2 games up. The Bengals are good, but are still a young team, learning to win and one of the things they have to learn is, to not take any team lightly. This is lesson one, the Browns will be fired up for this game, not the Bengals? Take Cleveland and the almost 2 TD’s on the road.

 

 

 

WINNER - 4* Detroit v GREEN BAY --- The Lions gave the Vikings all they had last week and still came up short at Ford Field. Jeff Garcia was back at QB, and while his presence helped, it wasn’t enough to get the Lions by the streaking “Love Boat” crew. Bret Favre continued his retirement tour last week, tossing out some more bouquets to the hungry Bears. Favre has lost all semblance of being a capable QB. I have watched him intently the last 3 games, and he has no business being out there. Either he’s that bad, or he’s cheating his ass off. The last 3 weeks he’s thrown 6 interceptions, 2 per game and most of those were of the game deciding, end zone variety. Whether he’s cheating, or just plain that bad, he shouldn’t be spotting anyone points. Not even the Lions. Take Detroit, we’re getting points and Bret’s on our side.

 

 

 

Tie - 3* Kansas City v DALLAS --- The Chiefs won the one they had to have last week, in an Arrowhead shootout versus the Broncos. Kansas City’s playoff hopes are still alive and they will have to battle San Diego down the stretch for the last playoff berth. Dallas was putrid last week. Drew Bledsoe reverted back to form and the Cowboys could not pick themselves up off the mat, in the Meadowlands. The Cowboys are now in a desperate state. This is a must win game, if the Cowboys want to keep their playoff hopes alive. It’s a classic BOUNCE UP versus Bounce DOWN scenario. Take Dallas and spot the short number at home.

 

Total = 2 - 1 - 2 and +3*
 
The O/U's

 

  • St. Louis v MINNY UNDER
WINNER
  • Houston v TENN OVER
Loser
  • Giants v PHILLY UNDER
Loser
  • New Orleans v ATLANTA UNDER
Loser

Total = 

1 - 3
 
Teasers

  (Teasers MUST include key numbers: 3, 6, 7, 10, 14, etc.)

 

  • Tampa +11
WINNER
  • BUFFALO +10
Loser
  • MINNY -2.5
WINNER
  • Chicago +10
WINNER
  • TENN -2.5
WINNER
  • San Fran +21
Loser
  • Detroit +10
WINNER
  • New Orleans +15
Loser

Total = 

5 - 3
 
HD's v Opp-Turf

 

  • BUFFALO
Loser
  • JETS
WINNER
  • JAX
Tie
  • PHILLY
WINNER

Total = 

2 - 1 - 1
   

Closing Lines and Final Scores

 
The Skinny

Legend is available below.

 

NFL WEEK #14

SUNDAY DECEMBER 11, 2005

Potential BPR Plays in Bold

EST

Line

BPR

Play If

Notes – Trends ATS (Against The Spread)

261 Tampa Bay Bucs

1:00

37

 

+11.5

8-4 SU / 4-8 O-U / 3-1 O-U v Tampa / REV / 3-6 /

262 Carolina Panthers

5.5

-7.5

-3.5

9-3SU / Carol 34 – TAMP 14, Nov 6 / 8-1 v Tamp/ 5-1

263 New England Pats

1:00

3

 

+7.5

7-5 SU / PATS 21 – Buf 16, Oct 30 / 5-2 v Buf / 2-5

264 Buffalo Bills

37

-3.5

+1

4-8 SU / REV/ 1-12 O-U v Pats/ 2-4 O-U H/ Bad Clutch

265 St. Louis Rams

1:00

45.5

 

+7

5-7 SU / 1-3 / 9-3 O-U/ 4-8 / 4-0 + 4-0 O-U v Min/ QB?

266 Minnesota Vikings

7

-3

+1

7-5 SU / 5-0 + SU / 3-7 O-U / Bounce DOWN/Playoffs?

267 Chicago Bears

1:00

31

-4

Even

9-3 SU / 6-1 / 8-0 SU / Bounce DOWN /

268 Pittsburgh Steelers

5.5

 

+8

7-5 SU / 0-3 / 6-0 O-U H / Bounce UP / QB Ben ?

269 Oakland Raiders

1:00

3

+3.5

4-8 SU /1-4 / 4-7 O-U / QB could bench Collins? /

270 New York Jets

37

 

+4.5

2-9 SU / 1-6 / 0-3 O-U /

271 Indy Colts

1:00

7.5

-3.5

+1

12-0 SU / INDY 10 – Jax 3, Sept 18 / 8-1 / 5-8 O-U /

272 Jacksonville Jags

42.5

 

+7.5

9-3 SU / 3-1 / REV / 5-2 v Indy / RB Taylor ?

273Houston Texans

1:00

44

 

+5.5

1-11 SU / 0-3 / REV / 3-11 / 4-1 O-U v Tenn/ 1st Pick ?

274 Tennessee Titans

7

-1.5

+2.5

3-9 SU / 2-5 / Tenn 34 – HOUSTON 20 / QB ?

275 Cleveland Browns

1:00

42.5

 

+12.5

4-8 SU / 2-6 / REV / 2-9 O-U / QB ?, WR Edwards Out

276 Cincinnati Bengals

12.5

-8.5

-4.5

9-3 SU / 7-4-1 / 3-1 / Bounce DOWN / 2-4 O-U H /

Cincy 27 – CLEV 13, Sept 11 /

277 Wash. Redskins

4:00

3.5

+3.5

6-6 SU / B2B R / 3-2-1 R / 0-3 O-U /

278 Arizona Cardinals

41

 

+4.5

4-8 SU / 2-4 / 3-7 v Wash / 1-4 H v Wash /

279 New York Giants

4:00

7.5

-6

-2

8-4 SU / 8-3-1 / 5-1 / GIANTS 27 – Philly 17, Nov 20 /

280 Philly Eagles

37.5

 

+10

5-7 SU / Aft Mon L / 1-7 / REV / 3-1 H v Gnts/ RB Out

281 San Fran Niners

4:00

43

 

+12.5

2-10 SU / 1-4 R / 4-1 O-U R / REV / QB ? /

282 Seattle Seahawks

16

-8.5

-4.5

10-2 SU / Aft Mon W / Bounce DOWN / 4-2 H /

Seattle 27 – NINERS 25, Nov 20 / 3-1 v Niners /

283 Miami Dolphins

4:15

45

 

+13

5-7 SU / 2-0 SU / 4-1 v S.D. / 2-4 O-U R / QB ? /

284 San Diego Chargers

13

-9

-5

8-4 SU / 6-1 / 0-5 O-U v Miami /

285 Baltimore Ravens

4:15

40

 

+17

4-8 SU / 1-4 / 4-0 v Den / 4-8 /

286 Denver Broncos

14

-13

-9

9-3 SU / 8-3-1 / 9-3 O-U /

287 Kansas City Chiefs

4:15

43.5

 

+7.5

8-4 SU / 6-2 / Bounce DOWN /

288 Dallas Cowboys

3

-3.5

+1

7-5 SU / 4-2 / 0-2 SU / Bounce UP / 2 CB ? /

289 Detroit Lions

8:30

36.5

 

+6.5

4-8 SU / 1-5 / DET 17 – G.B. 3, Sept 11 / 1-4 O-U v GB

290 Green Bay Packers

5.5

-2.5

+1.5

2-10 SU / 0-3 / REV / 3-8 O-U / 6-1 H v Det / TE ?

 

MONDAY DECEMBER 12, 2005

291 New Orleans Saints

9:00

43.5

 

+16.5

3-9 SU / REV / 4-1 v Atl / 3-7 O-U v Atl /

292 Atlanta Falcons

10

-12.5

-8.5

7-5 SU / 1-3 / Atl 34 – N.O. 31, Oct 16 / 5-2 HF v N.O./

 

 

Information Purposes Only - Not Intended For Anyone Under 21 Years of Age

The Legend

ATS – Against Spread

aft - after

bfr - before

[BPR] - Ben’s Power Rating

B2B – Back To Back

BOUNCE – Opp. result

D – Dog

Def - defense

DDD – Double Digit Dog

DDF - Double Digit Favorite

DIV - Division

F – Favorite

L - Loss

SAND - Sandwich game

 

H – Home

HD – Home Dog

HF – Home Favorite

HOME TEAM – In Capitals

LW – Last Week

LY – Last Year

N-DIV - Non Division

O/U – Over /Under

OFF – Offense

R – Road

REV – Revenge

SU – Straight Up

V - Versus

W - Win