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You Can't Believe The Hype

 

Volume VII, Week 2

September 15, 2005

2004 Results

      

Week

Year to Date

%

Ben's Picks

-5

2-3 2-3 40%
Ben's Power Rating (BPR)

2-2

2-2

50%

 

Over/Unders

3-1 3-1 75%
Teasers 4-4 4-4 50%
HD's v Opposite Turf 2-2 2-2 50%
The Rant

      

        Denver, Carolina, Minnesota, Arizona, St. Louis, Baltimore and the Jets are all teams hyped in the off season to contend for the playoffs and the Superbowl. ALL LOSERS! Miami, New Orleans, Tampa, and San Fran all teams hyped to be at the bottom of the heap. ALL WINNERS! The point being, after all the info we’ve read, watched and listened to in the off season, there is a fine line between winning and losing in this league. Most of the teams in the NFL are very evenly matched, especially with the point spread, and any slight advantage a team can muster over their opponent can transform a loser into a winner, and visa versa. You’re walking a tight rope out there, without a net, and any little bobble will turn you into pavement pizza.

        My picks started the year a very pedestrian 2-3. The winners included Buffalo, in a total team victory over the Texans. It was a beautiful day at the Ralph and the Bills were sporting their retro uniforms. They chased QB David Carr all over the field, creating 5 turnovers. QB Losman looked solid for Buffalo in his first start, but I have a feeling it’ll be a different outcome next week, in Tampa. Detroit got in the Win column over their archrival Green Bay. The Pack lost WR Walker in the early going and Bret Favre looked lost. I have a feeling, by October, Bret is gonna hope he retired after last year. The Lions have all the pieces on offense, but there’s still something missing. Is the problem QB Joey Harrington? The losers included a very disappointing defeat by the Cardinals in the Meadowlands. Arizona got off to an early lead, but a couple of big plays put them behind the 8 Ball. San Diego looked out of synch, at home versus the Cowboys. TE Gates was suspended for the game and the Chargers did not give RB Tomlinson the ball down the stretch. Not very smart. The Cowboys got the win with new QB Drew Bledsoe at the helm, but don’t be fooled, Bledsoe is a mistake waiting to happen. The Rams were another disappointing loss. St. Louis out gained the Niners 405 to 217 in yards, but still could not get the job done. Mike Martz’s boys settled for field goals in the Red Zone and their abysmal special teams were at it again. Martz has proven time and again he is not a game day coach. My prediction is Martz will be the first coaching casualty of the new season.

        The “BPR” (Ben’s Power Rating) went 2-2. The winners included Chicago, hanging tough at Washington and San Fran, taking it to the Rams. I try not to play against the BPR, but a late line move made the Niners a play. Remember to compare the individual game BPR’s in the schedule, on page 4. to the line, 4 points, or more, in your favor is a potential play. The losers included San Diego and Baltimore. The ”O-U’s” went 3-1 and the “HD’s v Opp-Turf” came in at 2-2. The “Teasers” struggled at 4-4. There were several early surprises in Week 1, luckily we did not get hurt too bad. This week we will have to use what we learned in Week 1 and build on that information. Remember the BPR gets stronger as the year goes on, so be patient and don’t blow your bankroll in the early going. Thanks and Good Luck, Ben

 

 
 
Potential BPR Plays

    Remember compare the BPR [Ben’s Power Rating] to the spread and if there’s a difference of 4 points or more, in your favor, then that’s a potential play. Below are the potential plays for this week; I have already added the 4 points. (Check individual game BPR's for any  line movements):

 

  • HOUSTON +7.5 or greater
No Play
  • Jax +9.5 or greater
No Play
  • CHICAGO +3 or greater
No Play
  • CINCY -2.5 or less
No Play
  • San Fran +13.5 or greater
No Play
  • ARIZONA -3.5 or less
Loser
  • Miami +5.5 or greater
No Play
  • Cleveland +8 or greater
No Play
  • San Diego EVEN or +
Tie
  • Washington +6.5 or greater
No Play

Total = 

0 - 1 - 1
 

Closing Lines and Final Scores

 
Ben's Picks

All trends are ATS (Against The Spread) unless otherwise specified.

 

WINNER - 5* Washington v DALLAS --- Last week the Redskins struggled on offense and replaced QB Ramsey with Mark Brunell. Washington still pulled out the victory, over the toothless Bears. It was another stellar performance by their defense, run by Coordinator Greg Williams. Dallas brought home a victory, in Drew Bledsoe’s Cowboy debut and everything is fine and dandy in Big D. Not so fast my friends. The Boys barely escaped San Diego with the win and Bledsoe is a mistake waiting to happen. No one knows this better than his former coach, in Buffalo, one Greg Williams. Williams suffered through 2 years in the Buff, watching Bledsoe make one mistake after another, in the face of a fierce rush. Williams knows how to beat his old QB, because he’s seen it done time and again. The best part of the whole thing is, Williams has the defense to do it. The Redskins are one of the top defenses in the league and Williams will put his pass rushers in Bledsoe’s face all night. Expect to see Drew turn the ball over 2 to 3 times. That will be the difference in this closely fought rivalry. Is it my imagination, or does Drew Bledsoe look like General Custer? Skin to win. Take the points.

 

 

Loser - 5* Baltimore v TENNESSEE --- The Ravens were humbled, at home, by the Colts last week. They lost QB Kyle Boller in the process, veteran Anthony Wright takes his place. Baltimore out gained the Colts, but 4 Raven turnovers were the difference. In Pittsburgh last week, the Titans got off to a 7-0 lead, but it was all downhill after that. The Steelers and 3rd string RB Willie Parker pounded the Titans for 200 yards rushing and dominated Tennessee. The Titans have many new faces on defense and the Ravens, with RB Jamal Lewis, are looking to punish a weaker foe. On offense, Tennessee will have to get lucky to score on Ray Lewis and the Baltimore defense. It’s going to be another long afternoon for QB Steve McNair and company. Several years back this was a fierce rivalry, but the Titans no longer have the talent to compete.. Take Baltimore, spot the wood.

 

 

WINNER - 4* Kansas City v OAKLAND --- K.C. and their revamped defense held the Jets scoreless for 59+ minutes last week and came away with a fine opening day victory. The Chiefs high powered offense was hitting on all cylinders last week, with Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson contributing, and scoring. Randy Moss and the Raiders went to Foxboro and got their butts handed to them in a Thursday Night loss to the Patriots. The new Oakland offense can score, but their defense is one of the worst in the league. The thing to remember in this game is, the Chiefs have a great offense and their revamped defense looks much improved, the Raiders have a great offense, but their defense is terrible. It’s a no-brainer, take K.C. in a high scoring shootout. It’s going to be a long night in the Black Hole.

 

 

ATTENTION! --- Time and Venue Change - Game played on Monday Night at 7:30 EST

Loser - 4* New Orleans v GIANTS --- The Saints pulled a stunner and upset the Panthers, in Carolina last week, on a last second field goal. It was a fitting end to what has been several crazy weeks for the Saints organization and their fans. Now, instead of traveling home and basking in the glow, they must venture to the swamps of New Jersey and play an additional road game, against the Giants. New York caught a couple of early breaks and took it to the Cardinals last week, in a lopsided 42-19 win. It was a deceiving final and the Giants are not that good. The Saints have a high powered offense and will be pushing it down the field all night long. Can Eli keep up with them? I don’t think so. I’ve got a strange gut feeling the Saints are going to be on a mission this year, for themselves, their franchise and their fans. It started last week and continues here. Mark my words, the Saints will be the surprise story of the NFL in 2005, no matter where they play. Go with the “mojo”, take New Orleans.

 

 

WINNER - 3* Detroit v CHICAGO --- The Lions did what they had to do to beat the putrid Packers last week, but only managed 17 points versus a weak defense. The Bears went to Washington last week, and rookie QB Kyle Orton got his baptism under fire. Chicago took it on the chin in a low scoring affair. Things will be different this week, as Orton will be spurred by a home town crowd and the Chicago defense will be loaded for “Harrington”, as in Joey Harrington. If Harrington could only manage 17 points, at home, versus a suspect Packer defense, what is he going to be able to do on the road, versus Brian Urlacher and company? This has the looks of a low scoring grind it out affair and I like the home team. Take Chicago.

 
Total = 3 - 2 for +3*
 
The O/U's

 

Pitt v HOUSTON UNDER WINNER
Buffalo v TAMPA UNDER WINNER
San Diego v DENVER UNDER WINNER
Kansas City v OAKLAND OVER Loser

Total = 

3 - 1
 
Teasers

  (Teasers MUST include key numbers: 3, 7, 10, etc.)

 

Baltimore +3 No Play
Pittsburgh -1.5 WINNER
CHICAGO +7 WINNER
JETS -1.5 WINNER
Cleveland +13 No Play
San Diego +8 WINNER
Washington +11 WINNER
New Orleans +8 loser

Total = 

5 - 1
 
HD's v Opp-Turf

 

CHICAGO WINNER
SEATTLE if Dog No Play
ARIZONA if Dog No Play

Total = 

 1- 0
   

Closing Lines and Final Scores

 
The Skinny

Legend is available below.

 

NFL WEEK #2

SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 18, 2005

Potential BPR Plays in Bold

EST

Line

BPR

Play If

Notes

193 Baltimore Ravens

1:00

3.5

-3

+1

5-1 v Tenn / Will run Lewis /

194 Tennessee Titans

36.5

 

+7

Can’t stop run / It’s gonna be a long year /

195 Pittsburgh Steelers

1:00

6

-3.5

+1

Will bring the heat / Will run the ball /

196 Houston Texans

38.5

 

+7.5

Can’t protect the QB / Can’t stop run /

197 Jacksonville Jags

1:00

45.5

 

+9.5

5-2 RD LY / Played close v Indy LY

198 Indy Colts

9

-5.5

-1.5

7-2 O-U H / Jags got their # ? /

199 New York Giants

PPD

See Monday Night

200 New Orleans Saints

201 Detroit Lions

1:00

2

 

+5

B DOWN / Offense still not clicking /

202 Chicago Bears

33

-1

+3

1-7 O-U v Detroit / Tough defense /

203 Minny Vikings

1:00

47

 

+11.5

Bounce UP / LB Cowart ?

204 Cincy Bengals

3

-6.5

-2.5

15-7 H v NFC / Is this the year ? /

205 San Fran 49ers

1:00

43

 

+13.5

Bounce DOWN / LW a fluke /

206 Philly Eagles

12.5

-9.5

-5.5

Bounce UP/ Will get untracked /QB Mc Nabb?

207 Buffalo Bills

1:00

35

 

+4.5

QB Losman faces a real defense /

208 Tampa Bay Bucs

2.5

- .5

+3.5

O-Line ? / CB arrested /

209 N. England Patriots

1:00

3

-2

+2

6-1 R v NFC / Rested

210 Carolina Panthers

43

 

+6

DT Jenkins OUT for season / 14-2 as D

211 Atlanta Falcons

4:00

41.5

Even

+4

Bounce DOWN / 3-6 R /

212 Seattle Seahawks

1

 

+4

Bounce UP / 7-2 O-U H /

213 St. Louis Rams

4:00

44

 

+11.5

8-18 SU R/ Martz Sucks/ Special teams suck

214 Arizona Cardinals

1

-7.5

-3.5

Warner v Old team / Out gained Giants LW

215 Miami Dolphins

4:15

37

 

+5.5

Bounce DOWN / 2-7 O-U v Jets

216 New York Jets

6

-1.5

+2.5

Bounce UP / Turnovers LW / 7-2 v Fish

217 Cleveland Browns

4:15

40.5

 

+8

3-8 R v NFC ? It’s gonna be a long year /

218 Green Bay Packers

7

-4

Even

WR Walker OUT ? It’s gonna be a long year

219 S. Diego Chargers

4:15

45

-4

Even

TE Gates back / 1-9 SU R v Denver /

220 Denver Broncos

3

 

+8

CB Bailey OUT / Predictable defense

221 Kansas City Chiefs

8:30

1.5

-2

+2

7-3 R v Oak / Much better Def / RB arrested

222 Oakland Raiders

53

 

+6

3-0 O-U v K.C. / D won’t stop Chiefs

 

MONDAY SEPTEMBER 19, 2005

223 Wash. Redskins

9:00

36

 

+6.5

Brunnell QB/D-Coord former Bledsoe coach

K Hall OUT / Played close v Dallas LY

224 Dallas Cowboys

6

-2.5

+1.5

9-1 SU H v Wash / 2-6 O-U v Wash /

225 New Orleans Saints

7:30

44

 

+7

Saints on a mission /

226 New York Giants

3

-3

+1

Didn’t do much last week to deserve Win

 

 

Information Purposes Only - Not Intended For Anyone Under 21 Years of Age

The Legend

 

ATS – Against Spread

aft - after

bfr - before

[BPR] - Ben’s Power Rating

B2B – Back To Back

BOUNCE – Opp. result

D – Dog

Def - defense

DDD – Double Digit Dog

DDF - Double Digit Favorite

DIV - Division

F – Favorite

L - Loss

SAND - Sandwich game

 

H – Home

HD – Home Dog

HF – Home Favorite

HOME TEAM – In Capitals

LW – Last Week

LY – Last Year

N-DIV - Non Division

O/U – Over /Under

OFF – Offense

R – Road

REV – Revenge

SU – Straight Up

V - Versus

W - Win