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Over / Unders Start 6-2

 

Volume VII, Week 3

September 22, 2005

2004 Results

      

Week

Year to Date

%

Ben's Picks

-2

3-2 5-5 50%
Ben's Power Rating (BPR)

0-1-1

2-3-1

40%

 

Over/Unders

3-1 6-2 75%
Teasers 5-1 9-5 64%
HD's v Opposite Turf 1-0 3-2 60%
 

 

The Rant

      

        The “O/U’s” have gotten off to an impressive 6-2 start, after back-to-back 3-1 weeks. The lone loser was the disappointing outcome of the Sunday Night match up between K.C. and Oakland. The teams were on track at half time, but forgot to put on their scoring shoes for the second half. 4-0 would’ve been sweet. The “Teasers” made a nice turnaround after a mediocre opening week, going 5-1 and pulling my record up to 9-5 for the year. “HD’s v Opp-Turf” came in at 1-0 and stand at 3-2 for the season.

        My picks went a respectable 3-2 to bring my record back to 50% and 5-5. Washington pulled the biggest surprise by coming back from 13 down, late the 4th quarter, against the hated Cowboys. Was there any sight sweeter sight than seeing the look on Jerry Jones face after that debacle? Nice way to honor the triplets, Cowgirls. I was disappointed by the fact the Redskins didn’t bring the heat on Drew Bledsoe, but a win is a win is a win. The other wins included Kansas City beating the Raiders in Oakland. The Chiefs slightly improved defense seems to be making a world of difference. Chicago also took it to the reeling Lions. The Bears put the clamps on Joey Harrington and Chicago QB Kyle Orton played a very respectable home game. The Lions are now auditioning QB’s and Mr. Harrington cannot be feeling too comfortable. The losers included Baltimore, in a total beat down by the undermanned Titans. The Ravens are in trouble, at QB, and the bye week could not have come at a better time. New Orleans was a killer loss in their home game on the road. The Giants caught every break in the book, including a fumble on the opening kickoff. The snake bitten Saints moved the ball up and down the field, but couldn’t get out of their own way. The complaining by Jim Haslet and company has already begun and you can’t blame them. Keep an eye on this team, if things start going south it’s going to be a long year.

        The BPR has gotten off to its usual slow start going 0-1-1 and standing at 2-3-1 for the year. Remember the BPR gets stronger as the year goes on and should only be used as a guideline until about week 5. The loser was Arizona, as the Cards left the ball inside the 10 yard line in their comeback attempt versus the Rams. San Diego tied ATS after taking a big lead over the Broncos. Houston, Jacksonville, Chicago, Cincy, San Fran, Miami, Cleveland and Washington were not considered as plays because the closing line did not meet the needed #. Just to remind everyone, I use the closing line as published by the Oklahoma Sport Monitor. You can get those numbers by going to my website benspicks.com. There you can also find many links to FREE info to help you pick winners. Try it, you’ll like it, it’s FREE!

        One word of advice, after the first 2 weeks of the season, “What You See, Is What You Get”. Baltimore, Houston, Detroit, Minny, San Fran, Green Bay and Oakland all look pretty bad. Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Indy, Philly, Tampa, and K.C. look pretty good. Keep that in mind, until you see an abrupt turnaround by these teams. It’s not easy to stop a truck going downhill. Thanks and Good Luck, Ben

 

 
 
Potential BPR Plays

    Remember compare the BPR [Ben’s Power Rating] to the spread and if there’s a difference of 4 points or more, in your favor, then that’s a potential play. Below are the potential plays for this week; I have already added the 4 points. (Check individual game BPR's for any  line movements):

 

  • PHILLY -8 or less
Loser
  • CHICAGO Even or +
Loser
  • Jax +4.5 or greater
No Play
  • MIAMI +2 or greater
WINNER
  • BUFFALO +2 or greater
No Play
  • Arizona +8 or greater
No Play
  • PITTSBURGH -5 or less
Loser
  • SAN FRAN +1 or greater
WINNER
  • Giants +5 or greater
Loser
  • Kansas City -2.5 or less
Loser

Total = 

2 - 5
 

Closing Lines and Final Scores

 
Ben's Picks

All trends are ATS (Against The Spread) unless otherwise specified.

 

Loser - 5* Tennessee v ST. LOUIS --- The Titans easily handled the conservative, defensive minded Ravens in an upset victory last week. Tennessee has faced 2 running teams and stand at 1-1 for the year. It looks like business as usual for Jeff Fisher and Steve McNair, but don’t be fooled. The Titans have an entirely revamped secondary, now S Vincent Fuller is out and DT Albert Haynesworth is ?. Tennessee has not faced a high-powered passing attack and is in for a rude awaking. The Rams embarrassed themselves in San Fran, on opening day, but bounced back nicely in the Arizona desert. Mike “The Idiot Savant” Martz and company return home, and are looking to turn it up a notch on the fast track. The Titans are the perfect team to do it against. The Rams are 11-5 at home and the Titans are 2-5 in domes. This is the perfect match up for St. Louis and the Titans don’t have the offensive weapons to compete. Take the Rams and spot the points.

 

 

Warning this play goes against the BPR!

WINNER - 5* Giants v SAN DIEGO --- The Giants are riding high, after an opening day blowout of the Cards, and a Monday night beat down of the road weary Saints. The G-Men stand at 2-0. New York is a decent team and Eli seems to be holding his own, but I am not impressed. The Giants have been the beneficiaries, of every break in the book so far this season. In week one, they road 2 kickoff returns to victory. In week 2, their added home game, and 6 turnovers by the Saints, propelled they to the win. They must now, travel to the left coast, on a short week, and face the team Eli Manning shunned on Draft day last year. Now, the shit hits the fan. The Chargers started the season a very disappointing 0-2, after having a late lead, at home versus the Cowboys, and on the road versus Denver. All is not well with Marty Schottenheimer and company. San Diego was a very impressive 12-4 last year and is in desperate need of a victory. The Chargers are a much better team, at home, and there is no doubt to their motivational level. I do not like betting against the BPR, but it’s early in the season and the numbers will obviously adjust themselves after a Charger win. Take San Diego and sit back and enjoy your Sunday night.

 

 

WINNER - 4* Jacksonville v JETS --- The Jags lost a heartbreaker, to division rival Indy, in the RCA Dome. The 9 point dog Jaguars stood toe to toe with the Colts, and a gimpy Brian Leftwich almost pulled it out. Jacksonville is a tough team and you better show up with both your pompoms, if you want to beat them. The Jets outlasted the Dolphins, at home, in a must win. The Jets do not impress me. They have a decent defense, but their offense consists of a banged up Curtis Martin and a QB with no arm, Chad Pennington. Defensive coordinators are finally catching up to Pennington and that does not bode well for an injured Martin. The Jags have an excellent defense, they held the explosive Colts to a mere 10 points. Coach Jack Del Rio will put 8 in the box, stop Martin and dare Pennington to throw. I like their chances. Take Jacksonville and the projected 3 points, in a low scoring game, you won’t need them in an outright Jaguar victory.

 

Loser - 4* Atlanta v BUFFALO --- The Falcons came back down to earth, in Seattle last week, after soaring over the Eagles on opening day. Atlanta spotted the Seahawks a huge lead and almost came back for the win. Michael Vick pulled his hammy and had to leave the game on the final drive. The Falcons must now travel, in B2B weeks, and face the formidable Buffalo defense, possibly without “Ron Mexico”, A.K.A Michael Vick. The Bills were run over last week, when they slammed, head first, into a Cadillac. “Car”nell Williams is a rookie stud and the Buffalo defense ran out of gas in the Florida heat. The Buffalo defense has a lot of pride and will bounce back at home. The Bills will ground the Falcons, with, or without Vick. Atlanta is one dimensional and cannot throw the ball down the field, if the Bills are not afraid of the pass, watch out “Mr. Mexico”. The burden then falls on QB J.P. Losman, Willis McGahee and friends to take advantage of an average Atlanta defense. I think the home field makes all the difference in this match up. Take the fired up Bills at home, whatever the #.

 

 

Loser - * Tampa v GREEN BAY --- The Bucs have ridden a supped up Cadillac and excellent defense to an improbable 2-0 record. The Bucs always man up on defense, but they finally have a stud RB in Williams to help take the pressure off QB Brian Greise. The Pack have surprised the football world, but not yours truly, by losing on the road to the Lions and at home to the lowly Browns. The Packers lost a ton in the off season and are now down WR Javon Walker and DE Gary Walker. QB Bret Favre has no offensive line and will be running for his life all day. The Green Bay defense will not have an answer for Mr. Cadillac and it’s going to be a long day for Bret Favre and 61,877 cheeseheads at Lambeau Field. Favre is over the hill and has run out of miracles. Take Tampa, the Pack won’t be back for a long, long, long time.

 

Total = 2 - 3 for -3*
 
The O/U's

 

Tenn v ST. LOUIS OVER WINNER
Jax v JETS UNDER Loser
Carolina v MIAMI UNDER Loser
Tampa v GREEN BAY UNDER WINNER

Total = 

 2 - 2
 
Teasers

  (Teasers MUST include key numbers: 3, 7, 10, etc.)

 

ST. LOUIS -2.5 WINNER
PHILLY -2.5 WINNER
JAX +8 WINNER
MIAMI +10 No Play
INDY -7 No Play
New England +8 WINNER
Dallas -2 WINNER
SAN DIEGO -2 WINNER

Total = 

6 - 0
 
HD's v Opp-Turf

 

CHICAGO Loser
SAN FRAN WINNER

Total = 

1 - 1
   

Closing Lines and Final Scores

 
The Skinny

Legend is available below.

 

NFL WEEK #3

SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 25, 2005

Potential BPR Plays in Bold

EST

Line

BPR

Play If

Notes

389 Tennessee Titans

1:00

46

 

+9

Bounce DOWN / 2-5 domes / Bad Secondary / S, DT ?

390 St. Louis Rams

6.5

-5

-1

11-5 H / 11-3 H v AFC / OT, CB ?

391 Oakland Raiders

1:00

46

 

+16

6-1 RD v NFC / WR Curry OUT, WR ? / Bad Defense

392 Philly Eagles

7.5

-12

-8

4-10 F v AFC / 6-14 O/U / Got untracked LW

393 Cincy Bengals

1:00

3

 

+8

9-4 / Carson Palmer the real deal / Playoff Bound ?

394 Chicago Bears

39

-4

Even

8-5 HD / Great Defense, can they slow down Cincy?

395 Jax Jaguars

1:00

34.5

 

+4.5

B2B R / 5-13 O/U / SS OUT, Leftwich ?

396 New York Jets

3

+3.5

0-2 O/U / 10-20 HF v N-Div / RB Martin / Over rated!

397 New Orleans Saints

1:00

44

 

+6

B2B2B R / 7-2 RD / Made too many mistakes Mon.

398 Minny Vikings

4

-2

+2

5-1 O/U v Saints/Many INJ on defense/Team in disarray

399 Carolina Panthers

1:00

3

 

+6

0-5 F v AFC / Many INF Defense / Bounce DOWN

400 Miami Dolphins

36.5

-2

+2

0-2 O/U / 4-0 D v NFC / Offense needs a boost

401 Cleveland Browns

1:00

47

 

+18

B2B R / Bounce DOWN / 4-12 DDD /

402 Indy Colts

13.5

-14

-10

0-2 O/U / Colts are for real, defense is much improved

403 Atlanta Falcons

1:00

No

 

+6

0-2 O/U / 2 CB, DE, QB ? / Vick, Smick 1 dimensional

404 Buffalo Bills

Line

-2

+2

Wilted in heat LW / LB, OT ? / Will slow down Falcons

405 Tampa Bucs

1:00

3.5

-3

+1

5-12 O/U v Pack / 5-13 O/U / Cadillac a force

406 Green Bay Packers

38

 

+7

2-8 H / TE, LB, DE ? / PACKERS STINK – Stay away

407 Arizona Cardinals

4:00

42

 

+8

2-0 LY v Seattle / 18-7 O/U R / Playing hard-need break

408 Seattle Seahawks

6.5

-4

Even

4-10 H v Div / 3-12 O/U as HF / WR, 2 OT ? / Fade late

409 N. England Patriots

4:00

42

 

+13

4-0 O/U v Pitt / B2B R / 5-1 v Pitt/ Too many mistakes LW

410 Pittsburgh Steelers

3

-9

-5

Rev for playoff loss LY / Roethlisberger still green

411 Dallas Cowboys

4:00

6.5

 

+6

7-2 O/U R / 6-15 RF / Will bounce back from Mon Loss

412 San Fran 49ers

40.5

-3

+1

2-0 O/U / 7-2 O/U H / Totally exposed LW

413 New York Giants

8:30

42.5

 

+5

Have caught a ton of breaks in first 2, Luck runs out

414 San Diego Chargers

6

-1

+3

Playing Hard, no breaks / Need to get ball to Tomlinson

REV GAME FOR ELI DRAFT DEBACLE LY!!!!!!!

BYE: Baltimore, Detroit, Houston, Washington

MONDAY SEPTEMBER 26, 2005

415 K. C. Chiefs

9:00

48

-6.5

-2.5

B2B R / 8-4 D v Den / DT, OT ? / Defense Improved

416 Denver Broncos

2.5

 

+10.5

4-1 v K.C. / Broncos on thin ice, can go either way

 

Information Purposes Only - Not Intended For Anyone Under 21 Years of Age

The Legend

 

ATS – Against Spread

aft - after

bfr - before

[BPR] - Ben’s Power Rating

B2B – Back To Back

BOUNCE – Opp. result

D – Dog

Def - defense

DDD – Double Digit Dog

DDF - Double Digit Favorite

DIV - Division

F – Favorite

L - Loss

SAND - Sandwich game

 

H – Home

HD – Home Dog

HF – Home Favorite

HOME TEAM – In Capitals

LW – Last Week

LY – Last Year

N-DIV - Non Division

O/U – Over /Under

OFF – Offense

R – Road

REV – Revenge

SU – Straight Up

V - Versus

W - Win