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Teaser Plays on 11-1 Roll

 

Volume VII, Week 4

September 29, 2005

2004 Results

      

Week

Year to Date

%

Ben's Picks

-5

2-3 7-8 47%
Ben's Power Rating (BPR)

2-5

4-8-1

33%

 

Over/Unders

2-2 8-4 67%
Teasers 6-0 15-5 75%
HD's v Opposite Turf 1-1 4-3 57%
The Rant

      

 

        The “Teaser” plays were an impressive 6-0 last week and are now on a phenomenal 11-1 roll the last 2 weeks. Remember to include the key numbers in your teaser plays: 3, 6, 7, 10, 13, 14 etc.. The “O/U’s” rolled in at 2-2 last week  still stand at an impressive 8-4 for the year. The “HD’s v Opp-Turf” came in at 1-1 and are 57% for the year, going 4-3.

        My picks were a disappointing 2-3 for the week, as 2 favorite picks won their respective games, but failed to cover the spread. I hate when that happens especially considering both squads, St. Louis and Tampa Bay, were covering late in the 4th quarter and turned the ball over, to give up 3 points and the cover. The Rams just can’t seem to finish this year, squandering opportunities in the red zone and settling for field goals. Tampa did just enough to get the win over Green Bay and the Packers may have covered, but they are an outright joke. The other loser was Buffalo at home. The Bills, and their rookie QB, could not throw the ball downfield versus the injury riddled Falcons and paid the price with a home loss. Buffalo was also run over on defense and to make matters worse, LB Takeo Spikes was lost for the year. Spikes is the heart and sole of that defense and without him, it’s going to be a long year in Blizzardville. Send in the plows. The winners included San Diego, finally getting untracked and sticking it to the overmatched Giants. Eli Manning tried to keep up, but the Giant defense made sure that wasn’t going to happen. Jacksonville also cashed in with a big time win over the Jets. The Jags pushed the Jets all over the field, but still had to go to overtime to settle the affair in dramatic fashion. The Jets lost QB Chad Pennington, probably for the year, and his backup Jay Fiedler was also shelved. Brooks Bollinger, who?, will make the start for the Jets this week and believe it or not 82 year old Vinny Testaverde was signed. Those of you who are veterans of the newsletter know my opinion of Vinny. Keep Your Hand On Your Wallet At All Times.

        The BPR (Ben’s Power Rating) took a major hit last week going 2-5. That result shows us why the BPR must only be used as a guideline, this early in the season. It can give you a one up on any up and coming teams, like Miami. The problem is, with only 2 games on the stat sheet, it may also give you a false reading on a team that plays way above or below their actual abilities, like the Giants. As I have said time and again, give the power rating several weeks to set some decent numbers, about week 5, and as the season goes on, the results will get better and better. The playoffs are especially strong, going 22-10 the last 6 years.

        Just one more reminder, if you are looking for up to date info on the NFL and the coming games this week, take a click over to my website www.benspicks.com. Its FREE and there you can get up to date information on odds, injuries, stats, weather, transactions and all the latest rumors in the NFL. It’s always a good idea to have as much info as your bookie and you can get it FREE at benspicks.com. Good Luck, Ben

 

 
Potential BPR Plays

    Remember compare the BPR [Ben’s Power Rating] to the spread and if there’s a difference of 4 points or more, in your favor, then that’s a potential play. Below are the potential plays for this week; I have already added the 4 points. (Check individual game BPR's for any  line movements):

 

  • San Diego +2.5 or greater
WINNER
  • CINCY -11.5 or less
Loser
  • GIANTS -5 or less
WINNER
  • Buffalo Even or +
Loser
  • Jets +4 or greater
Loser
  • San Fran -3.5 or less
Loser

Total = 

2 - 4
 

Closing Lines and Final Scores

 
Ben's Picks

All trends are ATS (Against The Spread) unless otherwise specified.

 

WINNER - 5* Indy v TENNESSEE --- The Colts, as expected, are 3-0 SU after a home win over the Browns, although the way that they have accomplished that feat is surprising. In the past Peyton “Munster”, I mean Manning and company have scorched the turf with their offense, outscoring all comers. Now that Peyton has all the records, Coach Dungy the Colts have reverted back to his former ways in Tampa, A.K.A. play solid defense,  run the ball and just win the game. That is all well and good, but make no mistake about it, this offense is about to explode. The Titans hung with the brain dead Rams last week, despite an inexperienced defense, because St. Louis committed several turnovers. The miscues gave Tennessee the early lead and held them in the game late. Yes, Tennessee is a well coached team and they come to play every week, but they do not have the “Thoroughbreds” to keep up with the galloping Colts. The Colts will win by more than seven lengths on the grass. Take Indy in a high scoring match race.

 

 

WINNER - 5* St. Louis v GIANTS --- OVER THE TOTAL --- The Rams have been moving the pumpkin up and down the field all season, with moderate results in the red zone. Coach Mike The Idiot Savant” Martz thinks he’s so smart, that he’s stupid. The bottom line is, the Rams outthink themselves and have made many costly errors. The Giants defense was finally exposed last week, on the road, versus a talented foe, San Diego. The New York defense has mediocre DB’s, very slow LB’s and DE Strahan is ?. The New York offense, on the other hand, is fairly talented, now that QB Eli “Munster”, I mean Manning is starting to come around. He had over 400 yards passing and no interceptions versus the Chargers last week. Each teams strength, offense, will be playing to the others weakness, defense. Add it all up and it looks like a lot of points to me. Take the OVER and enjoy the fireworks.

 

 

WINNER - 4* San Diego v NEW ENGLAND --- The Chargers did what they had to do last week, after starting the season 0-2. San Diego held the 4th quarter lead in each of their first two games, but lost both to the Cowboys and Broncos. The Chargers made no mistake about it last week, humbling the overmatched Giants 45-23. The Chargers have been playing tough and finally have seen some results. The Pats are off a, down to the wire, winner versus the Steelers last week. The game had a playoff feel and the Pats were on the ropes, but Tom Brady and Adam Vinatieri pulled it out as usual. New England already had many injuries to contend with and also lost CB Harrison and OT Light last week. Sooner or later all this turmoil has to catch up with the Pats and I think it will happen sooner rather than later. The Chargers are playing tough and catch this foe at the right time. Take San Diego and the generous spot. I smell upset.

 

 

 

Loser - 4* Philly v KANSAS CITY --- The Eagles seemed uninterested last week and barely escaped with a SU victory over the Raiders. In their first 3 games, Philly has lost to the Falcons, crushed the Niners and eked out the Raiders. Not a very impressive resume for Superbowl contenders. The Chiefs got humbled by the Broncos last week, after a couple of impressive victories. The K.C. offense was clicking and their defense was playing much better, until that clash in the Rocky Mountains. The outcome seems understandable considering the desperate state of the Broncos. Now, the Chiefs return home and will be pumped up to face one of last year’s Superbowl finalists, in the friendly confines of Arrowhead Stadium. Make no mistake about it, the AFC is better than the NFC and the Chiefs are better that the Eagles, at home. Spot the small number and take the home team, Kansas City scalps the Eagles.

 

 

Loser - 4* Minny v ATLANTA --- The Vikings couldn’t get out of their own way the first two weeks, but finally righted the ship, at home, versus the road weary Saints. QB Dante Culpepper stopped throwing interceptions and Minnesota played a complete game. The Falcons have played through several defensive injuries, especially at CB, and escaped Buffalo last week with a well deserved win. The Bills, with rookie QB J.P. Losman, could not take advantage of Atlanta’s defensive shortcomings and paid the price with a home loss. That will not be the case this week. Culpepper is an experienced QB and the Vikings have a superior offense, despite the loss of Randy Moss. The Vikings will be able to take advantage of the Atlanta defense and should be able to slow down the one dimensional Michael Vick just enough to get the Win. I like Minnesota plus the generous 6 points. Don’t be surprised if they win the game outright.

 
Total = 3-2 and +6*
 
The O/U's

 

Denver v JAX UNDER WINNER
Seattle v WASH UNDER Loser
Minny v ATLANTA OVER Loser
San Fran v ARIZONA OVER WINNER

Total = 

2 - 2
 
Teasers

  (Teasers MUST include key numbers: 3, 6, 7, 10, 14, etc.)

 

San Diego +11 No Play
Denver +10 No Play
Indy -2 WINNER
TAMPA -2 WINNER
NEW ORLEANS +7 No Play
BALTIMORE -2 WINNER
Minny +10 Loser
CAROLINA -2.5 WINNER

Total = 

4 - 1
 
HD's v Opp-Turf

 

TENNESSEE Loser
OAKLAND No Play

Total = 

0 - 1
   

Closing Lines and Final Scores

 
The Skinny

Legend is available below.

 

NFL WEEK #4

SUNDAY OCTOBER 2, 2005

Potential BPR Plays in Bold

EST

Line

BPR

Play If

Notes – Trends ATS (Against The Spread)

207 S. Diego Chargers

1:00

47

-1.5

+2.5

3-6 o-u R / 0-5 v AFC-East / OG, LB ? / Playing Hard

208 New England Pats

5.5

 

+5.5

3-1 v Chargers / 2-8 F > 4 /Bounce DOWN/MANY INJ

209 Denver Broncos

1:00

37

 

+8

Aft Mon / Bounce DOWN /WR, CB, RB ? / Short week

210 Jacksonville Jags

4

-4

Even

3-0 / SS, OUT / Several injuries O-line / Beware as F

211 Houston Texans

1:00

42

 

+19.5

Aft Bye / 0-2 o-u / Fired Off-Coord/  DE Walker ?

212 Cincy Bengals

10

-15.5

-11.5

3-0 and on a roll / 0-3 o-u / SS, OT ? /

213 Indy Colts

1:00

7

-6

-2

4-0 v Tenn / 3-0 o-u v Tenn / Off ready to explode /

214 Tennessee Titans

45

 

+10

7-12 / Defense inexperienced / RB Henry Susp / S, DT ?

215 Philly Eagles

1:00

46.5

 

+4.5

22-11 R / K, Out / DT, DE ? / McNabb Prob

216 Kansas City Chiefs

2.5

+3.5

Aft Mon / 21-9 H v NFC / Several injuries /

217 Detroit Lions

1:00

34

 

+12.5

1-4 Aft Bye / 4-0 v Bucs/ S, CB Out, 2 LB ? / QB Sucks

218 Tampa Bay Bucs

6.5

-8.5

-4.5

3-0 SU / FS, OG ? / 0-3 o-u / Playing Well

219 St. Louis Rams

1:00

47

 

+13

FS, CB, WR, OT ? / 7-19 R / 1-7 v NFC-East /

220 New York Giants

3

-9

-5

3-0 v Rams / Exposed LW v Chargers / Many Points!

221 Buffalo Bills

1:00

Ev

-4

Even

In Big trouble / LB Spikes OUT / OT Williams ?

222 New Orleans Saints

“Remember The Alamo”

39

 

+8

1st “H” game / 2-1 o-u / Many Inj / Game at S.A., Texas

223 Seattle Seahawks

1:00

36

 

+5.5

Bounce DOWN / 2-1 o-u / CB, TE, WR ? / Sandwich

224 Wash. Redskins

2

-1.5

+2.5

Aft Bye / 3-0 v Seattle /8-1 v NFC-West / SS ? / K OUT

225 New York Jets

4:00

32.5

 

+4

Penny Done / Bollinger Starts / Vinny Signed / OT? /

Stay away from this team, until you see some positives

226 Baltimore Ravens

7.5

Even

+4

Aft Bye / Bounce UP /4-0 v Jets / QB Boller OUT /

227 Minny Vikings

4:15

44.5

 

+11.5

1-2 o-u / Culpepper back on track / 2 FS ? /3-1 o-u v Atl

228 Atlanta Falcons

6

-7.5

-3.5

DE Smith, 3 CB ? / Vikings will exploit, Bills couldn’t

229 Dallas Cowboys

4:15

46

 

+6

8-2 o-u R / 3-12 R v AFC / Spent week in Bay area

230 Oakland Raiders

3

-2

+2

1-2 o-u / 0-11 in Oct /

231 San Fran 49ers

8:30

42

-7.5

-3.5

7-2 v Cards / 3-0 o-u / CB, LB, OG ? /

232 Arizona Cardinals

at Mexico City

3

 

+11.5

3-0 o-u v Niners /QB Warner OUT, McCown Starts /

Many Injuries to defense / Haven’t shown much

BYE: Chicago, Cleveland, Miami, Pittsburgh

MONDAY OCTOBER 3, 2005

233 Green Bay Packers

9:00

43

 

+12.5

4-1 R v Carolina / 0-3 o-u v Carol / 1-2 o-u / TE, CB ?

234 Carolina Panthers

7.5

-8.5

-4.5

1-2 / 2-7 o-u H / Bounce UP / Need W / Def injuries

 

 

Information Purposes Only - Not Intended For Anyone Under 21 Years of Age

The Legend

 

ATS – Against Spread

aft - after

bfr - before

[BPR] - Ben’s Power Rating

B2B – Back To Back

BOUNCE – Opp. result

D – Dog

Def - defense

DDD – Double Digit Dog

DDF - Double Digit Favorite

DIV - Division

F – Favorite

L - Loss

SAND - Sandwich game

 

H – Home

HD – Home Dog

HF – Home Favorite

HOME TEAM – In Capitals

LW – Last Week

LY – Last Year

N-DIV - Non Division

O/U – Over /Under

OFF – Offense

R – Road

REV – Revenge

SU – Straight Up

V - Versus

W - Win