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Teaser Plays on 15-2 Roll

 

Volume VII, Week 5

October 6, 2005

2005 Results

      

Week

Year to Date

%

Ben's Picks

+1

3-2 10-10 50%
Ben's Power Rating (BPR)

2-4

6-12-1

33%

 

Over/Unders

2-2 10-6 63%
Teasers 4-1 19-6 76%
HD's v Opposite Turf 0-1 4-4 50%
The Rant

      

        My picks went a Hot and Cold 3-2 for the week. In the Hot, 1:00, session, the winners included Indy taking it to the disadvantaged Titans. The Colts outclass Tennessee and it showed on the field. Peyton “Munster”, I mean Manning, finally got untracked and Indy never looked back. Is Indy the best team in the league right now? The Chargers came through like a champ, beating the Champs thoroughly. Is there finally a kink in the Patriots armor? Last but not least, our OVER play in the Giant v Ram match up was never in doubt, as we only needed one score after halftime to cash this ticket. Three easy wins and I was feeling pretty good at 4:15, then someone blew out the pilot light in the afternoon session. The Chiefs were up, at home, 24-6, on the Eagles, then forgot to show up for the second half. K.C.’s offense got shut down and their defense got papoose slapped. Philly took over the game, and showed why they’re a Superbowl team. Last, but not least was the embarrassment that’s called the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings went to Atlanta, riding a win, and knocked Michael Vick out of the game in the early going. It should have been easy sailing for the men in purple, but the Vikings were raped and pillaged by backup Matt Schaub, Dante Culpepper and company looked like crap. The Vikings are in deep do-do and the only thing keeping them above water is the fact that their division sucks.

        The BPR (Ben’s Power Rating) is still looking pretty weak thus far this season, coming in at 2-4 for the week. I know it’s early in the year, but I was hoping for a more positive effect thus far. The BPR should start to show some positive effects soon, but I would wait until I see them first, if I were you. The winners were San Diego and the Giants, making St. Louis look like little lambs. The G-Men scored early and often, the Rams just couldn’t keep up. The losers included Cincy, not covering the big number v the Texans. Buffalo, getting embarrassed by New Orleans at the Alamo Dome. That game was there for the taking, but Buffalo just couldn’t do it. It looks like J.P. is not ready for prime time and the coaches aren’t helping him very much. I wonder if they know Willis McGahee is on the roster? The Jets couldn’t get it done with Brooks Bollinger leading the way. It was so bad, New York got the ball on the Ravens 1 yard line, after an interception, and had to settle for a field goal. Our cousin Vinny makes his debut this week. San Fran closes out the losers, after getting spotted 14 points, the Niners just didn’t know what to do. It was sad.

        The “Teasers” had another great week, going 4-1, and now stand at 19-6 for the year. The winners included Indy, Tampa, Baltimore, and Carolina. The lone loser was the putrid Vikings. San Diego, Denver and New Orleans did not qualify as plays, although they were all winners. The “O/U’s” held steady at 2-2 and the “HD’s v Opp-Turf” were 0-1. Remember to check out the website at, www.benspicks.com, to keep up with the latest news, odds, injuries, and weather. Thanks and Good Luck, Ben

 

 
 
Potential BPR Plays

    Remember compare the BPR [Ben’s Power Rating] to the spread and if there’s a difference of 4 points or more, in your favor, then that’s a potential play. Below are the potential plays for this week; I have already added the 4 points. (Check individual game BPR's for any  line movements):

 

  • Chicago Even or +
Loser
  • Seattle +4.5 or greater
No Play
  • ATLANTA -9 or less
Loser
  • DETROIT -3.5 or less
WINNER
  • Indy -20 or less
WINNER
  • Carolina -2 or less
No Play
  • DALLAS +3.5 or greater
No Play
  • Washington +8.5 or greater
No Play
  • Cincy -2.5 or less
Tie
  • Pittsburgh +2.5 or greater
WINNER

Total = 

3 - 2 - 1
 

Closing Lines and Final Scores

 
Ben's Picks

All trends are ATS (Against The Spread) unless otherwise specified.

 

WINNER - 5* Pittsburgh v SAN DIEGO --- The Steelers are coming off the bye week and are none to happy, after blowing their last game, at home, versus the Patriots. Pittsburgh was in a position to put the World Champs away, but let them off the ropes and K Adam Vinatieri put the Steelers on the canvas for the KO. In the Chargers last game they went to Foxboro and knocked the World Champs around the whole second half, until the Champions threw in the towel. This is a classic Bounce Up (Pittsburgh) versus Bounce Down (San Diego) scenario. The Steelers had a full 2 weeks to brood about their loss, while the Chargers are still basking in their glory. Pittsburgh will be able to slow down RB Tomlinson and keep Drew Brees and the passing game to a minimum. Will the Chargers be able to contain RB Willie Parker and a healthy Bettis and Staley? I don’t think so. I see the Steelers winning a close one. The 3 points just makes it that much nicer. Take Pittsburgh.

 

 

WINNER - 4* Miami v BUFFALO --- The Dolphins enjoyed their bye week atop the AFC-East, with a surprising 2-1 record. Miami’s Defense has taken to Coach Saban’s new system and Gus Frerotte hasn’t done anything stupid to rock the porpoise. The Bills have taken a downturn, after an impressive opening win. Buffalo took it on the chin from Tampa, Atlanta and New Orleans, all winnable games. QB J.P. Losman has been exposed for the rookie that he is and the coaches have not done enough to put this team in a good position. In each of the Buffalo’s 3 losses, the game was there for the taking, but the Bills just couldn’t get the job done. Buffalo’s best offensive weapon, RB Willis McGahee, has been a non-factor and that has to change. It is now, do or die for the Bills against their archrival. Buffalo stands at 1-3 and their season could turn into Buffalo Chips, with a loss here. The Bills sack up. Take Buffalo and give up the small number.

 

 

WINNER - 4* Indy v SAN FRAN --- The Colts put the Titans away easily last week, in a 31-10 rout. Peyton “Munster”, I mean Manning, tightened up his bolts and jump started the offense. The Colt defense has been playing strong and it was only a matter of time before the points started rolling in. The Niners are in a world of trouble. San Fran went south of the border last week and all they brought back with them was a sore butt hole. The Niners got lucky early to score 14 points, and from then on out, they made the winless Cardinals look like Elton John on steroids. Niner Coach Nolan has decided to start rookie QB Alex Smith to shake things up and, with the “help” of a nonexistent offensive line, the only thing that’s going to get rattled is his brain. San Fran’s injury depleted secondary will also be torched early and often, by Peyton and company. The Colts are on the way to the Superbowl and this is only a little pothole on the road. Take Indy and spot the wood, the lines maker can’t make it big enough. Indy BIG! Don’t forget to duck Alex.

 

 

 

Warning This Play Goes Against the BPR

Tie - 4* Cincy v JAX --- The Bengals came roaring out of their cage, with a 4-0 straight up record. Cincy convincingly beat Cleveland, Minny, and Chicago, before sliding by the Texans. QB Carson Palmer is clicking with his receivers and the Bengals have been feasting on turnovers. The Bengals are good, and getting better, the problem with this whole scenario is, look at who they’ve faced. Cleveland, Minny, Chicago and Houston are teams on the bottom rung of the league and don’t look to be getting better any time soon. The Jags lost a tough one, last week, to the up and coming Broncos, and stand at a mere 2-2 SU for the season. A closer look at their schedule shows encounters with the Seahawks, Colts and Jets. These four squads are much tougher that any the Bengals have faced thus far. The Jags are home, off a loss, and need a win to get back in the race. The Bengals are young and dumb and reading their press clippings. Take the hungry home team, with the strong defense. Take Jacksonville and lay the small number in a low scoring affair. The Jags show the Bengals who’s the top cat.

 

 

WINNER - 3* Tampa v JETS --- The Bucs faced the Lions last week and escaped with a home win. Tampa has started the season 4-0 SU and now look to continue their streak. Jon Gruden has the Bucs playing tough defense and riding their Cadillac to victory. Right now the Caddy is in the shop and questionable. The Jets have fallen on hard times, after losing their first 2 QB’s. Brooks Bollinger hung in tough last week, but he just does not have the talent or experience to carry this team. Enter, our cousin Vinny. 82 year old Vinny Testaverde makes his “triumphant?” return to the swamps of Jersey and, believe it or not, Vinny can only help this team. Testaverde’s veteran presence will have a calming effect and the Jets will play with a new found confidence. Yes, his arm strength will be a question mark, but it can’t be any worse than Chad Pennington’s. Vinny has seen everything there is to see in this league and, whatever the Bucs throw at him, it won’t faze the cagey veteran. This should be a low scoring defensive struggle and the Jets will be getting 3 points at home. Take the Jets.

 
Total = 4 - 0 - 1 and +16*
 
The O/U's

 

Chicago v CLEVELAND UNDER WINNER
Baltimore v DETROIT UNDER Loser
Washington v DENVER UNDER Loser
Cincy v JAX UNDER Loser

Total = 

1 - 3
 
Teasers

  (Teasers MUST include key numbers: 3, 6, 7, 10, 14, etc.)

 

Chicago +8 Loser
New Orleans +10 No Play
New England +8 No Play
Buffalo +3 WINNER
Indy -9 No Play
DENVER -2 WINNER
Jax +3 WINNER
Pittsburgh +8 WINNER

Total = 

4 - 1
 
HD's v Opp-Turf

 

JETS WINNER
SAN FRAN Loser
DALLAS WINNER

Total = 

2 - 1
   

Closing Lines and Final Scores

 
The Skinny

Legend is available below.

 

NFL WEEK #5

SUNDAY OCTOBER 9, 2005

Potential BPR Plays in Bold

EST

Line

BPR

Play If

Notes – Trends ATS (Against The Spread)

405 Chicago Bears

1:00

35

-4.5

Even

5-1 aft Bye / 1-2 o-u / 8-16 o-u R / LB OUT /

406 Cleveland Browns

3

 

+8.5

9-17 H / 1-3 aft Bye / 1-2 o-u / DB OUT /

407 New Orleans Saints

1:00

42

 

+8

11-4 RD / 12-5 on grass / Travel 4 o5 wks / MANY INJ

408 Green Bay Packers

3

-4

Even

Aft Mon / 2-7 HF / 4-7 SU H / MANY INJ

409 Tampa Bay Bucs

1:00

3

-4

Even

0-4 o-u / 4-0 SU / OT, OG, Caddy ? / Opp Turf

410 New York Jets

31.5

 

+8

1-3 o-u / RB Martin Prob / Vinny should start at QB

411 Seattle Seahawks

1:00

49

 

+4.5

B2B R / 1-5 o-u v Rams /3-1 o-u /D v Rams 5-0 /2 WR?

412 St. Louis Rams

3

-1.5

+2.5

3-0 v Sea LY / 3-1 o-u /21-4 SU H /Changes in Secondary

413 New England Pats

1:00

44

 

+17

3-1 o-u / 11-4 opp-turf / 3rd R game in 4 wks / INJ’s

414 Atlanta Falcons

3

-13

-9

1-3 o-u / 4-8 H v AFC / WR ? / Vick Prob /

415 Miami Dolphins

1:00

34

 

+4.5

Aft Bye / Opp-Turf / 2-1 o-u ? Much Improved

416 Buffalo Bills

2.5

+3.5

1-3 o-u / 2-0 v Miami LY / 7-4 o-u v Miami / DT, OT ?

417 Baltimore Ravens

1:00

33

 

+11.5

0-3 o-u / 6-0 v NFC / Opp-Turf / DE Weaver ? /

418 Detroit Lions

2

-7.5

-3.5

1-2 o-u / WR Rogers Susp, 2 CB ? / Harrington Sucks

419 Tennessee Titans

1:00

40.5

 

+6.5

Many Injuries and bad secondary / RB Henry Susp

420 Houston Texans

3

-2.5

+1.5

0-3 o-u / 3-0 v Tenn / Offense is inept /

421 Indy Colts

4:00

14.5

-24

-20

0-3 o-u / Opp-Turf / Best team in NFL ?

422 San Fran 49ers

46

 

+28

QB Rookie Smith Starts / 4-0 o-u / Many Inj, esp. CB

423 Carolina Panthers

4:15

3

-6

-2

Aft Mon / 5-17 F / 1-3 o-u v Atl / 1-3 v Atl /

424 Arizona Cardinals

43

 

+10

WR Rolle IR / K is 16 for 16 / 2CB, OL ? /

425 Philly Eagles

4:15

3.5

 

+4.5

B2B R / 7-2 R v Dallas / DT OUT , 2 LB, K, FS, OL ? /

426 Dallas Cowboys

44

+3.5

6-2 o-u v Philly / Bledsoe will be harassed all day

427 Wash Redskins

4:15

34.5

 

+8.5

9-3 RD / 2 SS, CB ? / Now Skins face a real test

428 Denver Broncos

7

-4.5

Even

1-2 o-u / 2 CB ,LB ? / 3-8 F 7 or > / Def playing well

429 Cincy Bengals

8:30

37.5

-6.5

-2.5

0-4 o-u / 2 C ? / Bengals facing a real team here

430 Jax Jaguars

2.5

 

+10.5

7-1 v Cincy / 1-5 o-u v Cincy / 2-11 o-u H / OL struges

BYE: Kansas City, Minny, Giants, Oakland

MONDAY OCTOBER 10, 2005

431 Pittsburgh Steelers

9:00

44.5

-1.5

+2.5

Aft Bye / 7-0 v Chargers / 2-1 o-u / 6-2 RD 3 < / Bus in

432 San Diego Chargers

3

 

+4.5

Bounce DOWN / 3-1 o-u / S ?, LG Fonoti OUT

 

 

Information Purposes Only - Not Intended For Anyone Under 21 Years of Age

The Legend

 

ATS – Against Spread

aft - after

bfr - before

[BPR] - Ben’s Power Rating

B2B – Back To Back

BOUNCE – Opp. result

D – Dog

Def - defense

DDD – Double Digit Dog

DDF - Double Digit Favorite

DIV - Division

F – Favorite

L - Loss

SAND - Sandwich game

 

H – Home

HD – Home Dog

HF – Home Favorite

HOME TEAM – In Capitals

LW – Last Week

LY – Last Year

N-DIV - Non Division

O/U – Over /Under

OFF – Offense

R – Road

REV – Revenge

SU – Straight Up

V - Versus

W - Win