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Picks Go 4-0-1 for +16*

 

Volume VII, Week 6

October 13, 2005

2005 Results

      

Week

Year to Date

%

Ben's Picks

+17

4-0-1 14-10-1 58%
Ben's Power Rating (BPR)

3-2-1

9-14-2

39%

 

Over/Unders

1-3 11-9 55%
Teasers 4-1 23-7 77%
HD's v Opposite Turf 2-1 6-5 55%
The Rant

      

 

        It was a long time coming, but the picks came through big, going 4-0-1 and coming within a whisker of a perfect week. The picks now stand at a respectable 14-10-1 and 58%. Now there’s something to build on. The winners included a solid performance by Pittsburgh, on Monday Night. The Steelers and Jerome Bettis took it to the Chargers. Big Ben went down with an ugly looking knee injury, in the final minute, but word has it, he may be back this week. The Bills sacked up, in a must win home game, against the hated Dolphins. Kelly Holcomb was inserted at QB, for Buffalo, and he seemed to steady the offense. Indy was spotting a huge number, but came through on the left coast, wearing down the undermanned Niners and Rookie QB Alex Smith. It’s going to be a big learning curve for MR. Smith and the Niners. The Jets and “New?” QB Vinny “Flintstaverde” came through in a must win, at home, versus the Bucs. Caveman Vinny’s still got it, but these Jets are missing something. The final play, Jacksonville, had a nice 10 point lead, spotting the Bengals 3, but let Cincy in the backdoor for the ATS tie. Not a bad week, if I do say so myself.

        The BPR (Ben’s Power Rating) showed signs of improvement going 3-2-1, with several near misses. Detroit was a BPR winner, after the Ravens mentally imploded. The Refs made several mistakes and the Ravens just couldn’t hold back their emotions, in a penalty filled fiasco. Baltimore received a near record 22 penalties, including 2 player ejections. Yes, the Zebras made some errors, but it just goes to show you what a thug mentality this team has. It was another bad reflection on this team and their Warden, Brian Billick. The other winners were Indy and Pittsburgh. The losers included Chicago, blowing a late lead in Cleveland and losing to the Browns. Atlanta, without QB Vick, also had the Patriots second guessing themselves, but we all know what happens in the clutch. Tom Brady and Adam Vinatieri. Cincy was the tie. What’s encouraging about these 2 BPR loses, is that they were 4th quarter near misses. The other encouraging aspect of the “Potential BPR Plays” was that the teams that did not qualify as plays, Seattle, Carolina, Dallas, and Washington all covered the spread. That’s very encouraging and comes at just about the right time in the season, as it always does. Now that we have 5 weeks in the books I urge you all to start using the “Potential Plays” to make your selections. These picks only get stronger as the year continues.

        The “Teasers” continued on their solid way, going 4-1 for the week and now on an impressive 19-3 run. The winners included Buffalo, Denver, Jacksonville, and Pittsburgh. The lone loser was Chicago. New Orleans, New England, and Indy were not plays. The “HD’s v Opp-Turf” went 2-1 and “The O/U’s” were a dismal 1-3. Both still stand at a respectable 55% for the year. Remember to check www.benspicks.com for all the up to date info you need. It’s FREE! Let’s keep it going. Thanks and Good Luck, Ben

 

 
Potential BPR Plays

    Remember compare the BPR [Ben’s Power Rating] to the spread and if there’s a difference of 4 points or more, in your favor, then that’s a potential play. Below are the potential plays for this week; I have already added the 4 points. (Check individual game BPR's for any  line movements):

 

  • Giants Even or +
Tie
  • DETROIT +1 or greater
WINNER
  • Atlanta -8 or less
Loser
  • CHICAGO -6 or less
WINNER
  • KANSAS CITY -4 or less
No Play
  • Cincy -5 or less
WINNER
  • PITTSBURGH -8 or less
Loser
  • Cleveland -7 or less
Loser
  • DENVER -5.5 or less
WINNER
  • BUFFALO -3 or less
WINNER
  • Houston +11.5 or greater
No Play
  • INDY -18 or less
WINNER

Total = 

6 - 3 - 1
 

Closing Lines and Final Scores

 
Ben's Picks

All trends are ATS (Against The Spread) unless otherwise specified.

 

Loser - 5* Carolina v DETROIT --- The Panthers hung tough in the desert last week and came away with a workman like victory, over the error prone Cards. Carolina is a solid well coached team and rarely makes mistakes that cost them a game. The Lions escaped with a win, at home last week, after the Ravens committed an almost record 22 penalties, many of them majors. Detroit was outplayed and out gained, but still managed to win convincingly, the Zebras made sure of that. The Detroit offense is downright offensive, with Joey Harrington at QB. The Detroit offense has several weapons, but Mr. Harrington just cannot get the job done. The Lions have been the beneficiaries of many breaks, the last 2 weeks, and the public perceives them as a decent team. They are not! The toothless Lions can’t chew there way out of a wet paper bag, without the help of a herd of Zebras. That won’t happen here, John Fox coaches the Panthers, not Brian Billick. The Panthers chew up the Lions. Take Carolina.

 

 

WINNER - 5* Minny v CHICAGO --- The Vikings are coming off a bye, but they are in deep doo-doo. Minnesota was supposed to contend for the division title, but they can’t get out of their own way. Dante Culpepper and the offense has been horrible without WR Moss, C Birk and Coordinator Linhert. The Viking defense was supposed to be much improved, with the addition of several high priced free agents, but the opposition has averaged 27 points against them. There has also been some grumbling, from brain dead defenders, about streamlining the defensive play calling. The Defensive Coordinator, Ted Cottrell, responded, “If it was anymore streamlined, there would be only one line”. Now word out of the Twin Cities is, several players were literally caught with their pants down having a sex party on a private cruise, during the bye week. These guys are playing like crap and they’re more worried about getting their weenies waxed, than playing football. What a bunch of idiots, it’s only a reflection on their Head Coach Homer” Tice. The Bears and rookie QB Kyle Orton let one get away in Cleveland last week. Chicago had the lead late, but allowed 2 TD’s, in 38 seconds, and could not recover. Lovie Smith has these Bears playing tough and they will come to play versus this rudderless foe. Homer and the Vikings are “exposed” for the fraud they are. Take the Bears.

 

 

Tie - 4* Giants v DALLAS --- The offensively endowed G-Men are off a bye and averaging 34 points a game. QB Eli “Munster”, I mean Manning is finally coming into his own, playing with more confidence in each game. The problem is, the New York offense has to be good, because their defense sucks. Meanwhile, in Big D, everything is coming up roses. The Cowboys scored early and often on Philly and put the road weary Eagles away in the first half. Drew Bledsoe is the second coming of Troy Aikman and Bill Parcells is Moses, leading the Cowboys to the promised land. Not so fast, my friends. Everyone is gushing over Bledsoe, but take the word of someone who’s watched him play 3 lackluster years in Buffalo, Drew is a mistake waiting to happen. All the Giants need is a little bit of pressure, by Michael Strahan, and it’s pop-over time in Big D. I’s going to be an old fashioned shootout at Texas Stadium between the veteran, Bledsoe, and the kid, Manning, and when the smoke clears, the one left standing will be Eli the Kid. Load up your six shooters partner, and take the Giants.

 

 

Loser - 4* Giants v DALLAS --- OVER the Total --- Presently 47. See above.

 

 

WINNER - 3* Washington v KANSAS CITY --- The Redskins gave the Broncos all they could handle last week, at Mile High. The Skins hung around for 58 minutes and came within a missed 2-point conversion of forcing overtime. Washington has been playing excellent defense and their offense has kept them in games, but now they face a totally new challenge. The Chiefs hit their bye week on a down note, losing their last two games and coming back down to earth. The K.C. offense was without several members of their offensive line and needed TE Tony Gonzales to stay in and help block, instead of opening up the field. This tactic limited the Chiefs offense and it showed. Now offensive linemen Willie Roaf and John Welbourn are set to return and so should the high powered K.C. attack. If the Chiefs get out to any kind of a lead, the Skins and QB Brunnell will never be able to keep up, especially at Arrowhead Stadium. The Skins are the wrong Indian on the wrong reservation. Take K.C. and spot the arrows.

 
Total = 2 - 2 - 1 and -1*
 
The O/U's

 

Carolina v DETROIT UNDER Tie
Minny v CHICAGO UNDER WINNER
Cleveland v BALTIMORE UNDER WINNER
Miami v TAMPA UNDER Loser
Houston v SEATTLE UNDER Loser

Total = 

2 - 2 - 1
 
Teasers

  (Teasers MUST include key numbers: 3, 6, 7, 10, 14, etc.)

 

Giants +10 No Play
Carolina +7 No Play
K.C. -1.5 WINNER
Jax +8 WINNER
BALTIMORE -2 WINNER
Miami +10 No Play
BUFFALO +3 WINNER
INDY -7 No Play

Total = 

4 - 0
 
HD's v Opp-Turf

 

DETROIT WINNER
TENNESEE Loser

Total = 

1 - 1
   

Closing Lines and Final Scores

 
The Skinny

Legend is available below.

 

NFL WEEK #6

SUNDAY OCTOBER 16, 2005

Potential BPR Plays in Bold

EST

Line

BPR

Play If

Notes – Trends ATS (Against The Spread)

209 New York Giants

1:00

47

-4

Even

4-12 aft Bye / 6-1 v Dallas / 3-1 o-u /

210 Dallas Cowboys

3

 

+8

Bounce DOWN/ 2 LB, RB Jones ?/ Bledsoe not that good

211 Carolina Panthers

1:00

42

 

+7.5

B2B R / 7-2 Domes / 17-7 RD v N-Div /

212 Detroit Lions

1

-3.5

+1

B2B H / 4-11 aft DD W, Oct / CB, FS, LB, DE, 4 WR ?

213 Atlanta Falcons

1:00

4

-12

-8

Vick ? / 1-5 SU R /1-4 O-U v Saints / 14-4 F v Div /

214 New Orleans Saints

42.5

 

+16

Bounce UP / 3-1 v Atl / Many Inj, RB Deuce, WR Horn ? / Watch out, team might pack it in early /

215 Minnesota Vikings

1:00

37

 

+14

Aft Bye / 1-4 o-u v Chic / 1-8 v Div / 9-21 Outdoors /

1-3 o-u /WR, 2 DE ?/Several players caught at sex Party

216 Chicago Bears

3

-10

-6

3-0 v Minny / 4-0 SU  H v Minny / RB Jones, OT, OG ?

217 Wash. Redskins

1:00

43

 

+12

B2B R / 6-1 RD / 2 CB ? / Can Skins Offense Keep Up?

218 Kansas City Chiefs

6

-8

-4

Aft Bye / 9-2 Oct / 21-10 H v NFC / 3 O-Line Prob /

219 Cincy Bengals

1:00

3

-9

-5

B2B R / 1-4 o-u / 1-4 v Tenn / 3-0 o-u v Tenn / C ? /

220 Tennessee Titans

45

 

+13

4-1 v Cincy / 12-2 H v > .500 team in Oct / LB, SS ?

221 Jacksonville Jags

1:00

35

 

+16

8-2 v Pitt / 2-6 o-u v Pitt / 5-2 RD 3.5 to 7 / SS Out /

222 Pittsburgh Steelers

3

-12

-8

Aft Mon / 3-0 SU v Jax/ 9-3 H /Batch in, If Ben can’t go

223 Cleveland Browns

1:00

34

-11

-7

8-3 in Oct / 1-3 o-u / WR Edwards, RB Suggs Out /

224 Baltimore Ravens

5

 

+15

Bounce UP / 3-1 v Clev / 26-18 HF / Bad passing game/

Need W badly, after last weeks penalty filled implosion/

225 Miami Dolphins

1:00

33

 

+7.5

B2B R / 0-2 o-u R / Ricky’s Back / CB, LB ?

226 Tampa Bay Bucs

4.5

-3.5

+1

0-5 o-u / 11-5 H v AFC / Caddy should play /

227 New England Pats

4:15

46.5

 

+13.5

B2B R / 4-0 O-U / 4 of 5 on R / 8-0 RD / MANY INJs

228 Denver Broncos

3

-9.5

-5.5

B2B H / 4-14 aft W / 5-0 O-U h v Pats / 2 LB, CB ?

229 New York Jets

4:15

33

 

+11

1-4 O-U / 13-4 RD in Oct / 1-4 O-U v Buff/ Vinny starts

230 Buffalo Bills

3

-7

-3

B2B H / 1-3 O-U / 7-1 SU H / 3-0 v Jets /

1-14 aft Miami / 2 OL ? /

231 San Diego Chargers

4:15

2

-1

+3

Aft Mon / 4-0 v Oak/ 11-3 R v Oak / 6-0 v Div /OG Out

232 Oakland Raiders

51

 

+5

Aft Bye / 1-3 O-U / 0-11 in Oct / 5-12 H / 3-10 v Div /

C Out / Offense bad on 3rd down / Have not scored > 20

233 Houston Texans

8:30

46

 

+11.5

1-3 O-U / 3-7 O-U R / Desparate / DE, WR Johnson ? /

O-Line shifted 4 spots / QB Carr, a sack waiting to happen

234 Seattle Seahawks

9.5

-7.5

-3.5

Bounce DOWN / 4-1 O-U / 8-21 v < .500 team in Oct /

WR Engram, Jackson, CB Dyson, SS Boulware ?

BYE: Arizona, Green Bay, Philly, San Fran

MONDAY OCTOBER 17, 2005

235 St. Louis Rams

9:00

51

 

+26

4-1 O-U / 5-1 Mon / Martz OUT / New Punter /

2 CB, DE, WR, Holt + Bruce ? / Specials Suck

236 Indy Colts

13.5

-22

-18

0-4 O-U / 4-1 H on Mon / FS, SS, DT, LB ? /

Only allowed 2 TD’s all year and that was at garbage time

 

 

Information Purposes Only - Not Intended For Anyone Under 21 Years of Age

The Legend

 

ATS – Against Spread

aft - after

bfr - before

[BPR] - Ben’s Power Rating

B2B – Back To Back

BOUNCE – Opp. result

D – Dog

Def - defense

DDD – Double Digit Dog

DDF - Double Digit Favorite

DIV - Division

F – Favorite

L - Loss

SAND - Sandwich game

 

H – Home

HD – Home Dog

HF – Home Favorite

HOME TEAM – In Capitals

LW – Last Week

LY – Last Year

N-DIV - Non Division

O/U – Over /Under

OFF – Offense

R – Road

REV – Revenge

SU – Straight Up

V - Versus

W - Win