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Teasers on a 23-3 Run

 

Volume VII, Week 7

October 20, 2005

2005 Results

      

Week

Year to Date

%

Ben's Picks

+16

2-2-1 16-12-1 57%
Ben's Power Rating (BPR)

6-3-1

15-17-3

47%

 

Over/Unders

2-2-1 13-11-1 54%
Teasers 4-0 27-7 79%
HD's v Opposite Turf 1-1 7-6 54%
 

The Rant

      

        A word of warning here, the results of last week are tentative. As of this writing, I could not get the closing lines, as reported by the Oklahoma Sports Monitor. In its place, I used the closing lines from the Stardust. Several of the game results can be swayed by a slight difference in the two closing lines and I may have to adjust these results next week. I appreciate your patience.

        The BPR (Ben’s Power Rating) turned the corner last week, going 6-3-1 ATS and creeping back to respectability. That makes the two week BPR results, 9-5-3 and 64%. As you can plainly see, the BPR is beginning to live up to its billing, right on schedule. The results will get more consistent as the season goes along. The more games in the books, the stronger the numbers. This weeks winners included Detroit, scratching and clawing there way into a cover they did not deserve. Chicago, also hung tough, at home and put away the boat weary Vikings. Minnesota fell behind early and quit, like the rented mule that they are. This team is in big trouble, they have a lame duck coach and no morality. The Bengals kept right on rolling, beating the Titan in the Music City. Denver took a big step towards respectability, beating the Pats at home. Buffalo took a must win, at home, versus the Jets. Last, but certainly not least, was the Colts, spotting the Rams 17 points then coming back to cover the 14 point spread. That had to make a few people sick on Monday Night. The losers included Atlanta, getting a do-over on a game ending field goal, but not covering the spread against the Saints. Cleveland, also took it on the chin, as the Raven pulled out all the stops in a must win home game. The Steelers were the final loser, as Tommy Maddox played the last meaningful game of his career. No, he wasn’t hurt and he hasn’t retired, but it’s going to be a long time before anyone with half a brain lets him start at QB in this league. Mr. Maddox single handedly gave the game to the Jags. The Giant v Dallas game finished in an ATS tie, after the G-Men lost by 3 in OT.

        My selections were a very frustrating 2-2-1. The tie was by the aforementioned Giants. The tie was frustrating, because I predicted several turnovers by Dallas QB Bledsoe, and the vaunted Giant offense turning them into a large lead. Well the turnovers happened, as I Predicted, but the Giants could only muster a measly 6 points, until the final minute of the game. They then proceeded to gage in OT. Needless to say, the OVER I had in that game, went down with the Giants ineptness. The other loser, was also very disappointing, a major line move made Carolina a 2 point favorite, instead of a 2 point dog, and much to my dismay, the Panthers won by only 1 point. I hate when that happens and I especially hate when my QB, Jake “Wrong Way” Delhomme has 2 TD passes, to the other team. The Chiefs came through, covering 6, at home, versus the Redskins. The Bears were the other winner.

        The “Teasers” are on a major roll the last several weeks, going 23-3 for a phenomenal 88%. The winners included K.C., Jax, Baltimore, and Buffalo. The Giants, Carolina, Miami, and Indy were not considered plays. “The O/U’s” went 2-2-1 and the “HD’s v Opp-Turf” were 1-1. Thanks + Good Luck, Ben

 

 
Potential BPR Plays

    Remember compare the BPR [Ben’s Power Rating] to the spread and if there’s a difference of 4 points or more, in your favor, then that’s a potential play. Below are the potential plays for this week; I have already added the 4 points. (Check individual game BPR's for any  line movements):

 

  • ST. LOUIS -5.5 or less
WINNER
  • Green Bay -6 or less
Loser
  • Indy -18 or less
WINNER
  • CINCY -2 or less
Loser
  • San Diego +4 or greater
WINNER
  • Kansas City +2 or greater
No Play
  • Detroit +1.5 or greater
WINNER
  • San Fran +1 or greater
Loser
  • Buffalo +1.5 or greater
Loser
  • CHICAGO -8 or less
WINNER
  • Tennessee +1 or greater
Loser
  • Denver +2.5 or greater
WINNER
  • ATLANTA -6 or less
No Play

Total = 

6 -5
 

Closing Lines and Final Scores

 
Ben's Picks

All trends are ATS (Against The Spread) unless otherwise specified.

 

WINNER - 5* Pittsburgh v CINCY --- The Steelers let one get away from them last week. Tommy Maddox played a terrible game and topped it off, in OT, by throwing an interception that was returned for a TD. Nice game Tommy, don’t let the door hit you on the way out. Big Ben returns, this week, and all is well in the Steel City. The Bengals are on a fantastic run, to open the season at 5-1 SU, and on top of the AFC North. Carson Palmer and the Cincy offense have matured tremendously in the last year. They are a force to be reckoned with. The problem lies in a  Bengal defense, that is allowing an alarming 4.9 yards per carry rushing. That is not a good stat to have, when  facing a healthy Jerome Bettis and company. The Steelers are only 3-2 SU and can not afford another loss, because they will then be 3 games behind the Bengals. This will be an intense playoff like match up and I like the team that’s been there and done that. Big Ben rings the bell. Take Pittsburgh in a dog fight.

 

WINNER - 4* Kansas City v MIAMI --- The Chiefs won a decisive game last week, although the Redskins out gained them significantly. K.C. has been up and down all year due to several injuries on their offensive line. Willie Roaf and Jason Welboure returned to action last week and the Chiefs ground game made a marked improvement. The Dolphins, under new coach Saban, have been respectable in the early going. Miami plays decent defense, but there offense isn’t going anywhere fast with Gus Frerotte at QB. RB Ricky “Don’t Bogart That Joint” Williams made his return last week, but did not made much of a difference against Tampa. If the Chiefs go up early, the Fish will be swimming upstream all afternoon. I think K.C. will find their road legs. Take Kansas City, for the comfortable win.

 

WINNER - 4* Detroit v CLEVELAND --- UNDER the Total --- The Lions had no business scoring 20 points against the Panthers last week. Detroit returned 2 interceptions for TD’s and stayed in the game, until the final seconds. The Lions have been blessed with many breaks the last 3 games, but take my word for it, this team is a mistake waiting to happen. QB Joey “No Balls” Harrington can’t find a receiver downfield and, making matters worse, several of his WR’s are injured. News out of Detroit this week is, Jeff “No Arm” Garcia is almost healthy enough to play and when he is, he will start. Garcia has added incentive to return for this game, because the Browns cut him last year. Cleveland and new coach Romeo Crennel have made some positive strides this year. Trent Dilfer has solidified the QB position and Crennel’s specialty, the defense, is much improved. The problem with the Brown is, they lack playmakers on offense. Dilfer is great at managing a game, but he is not going to win it single handedly. This game has UNDER written all over it and the only way it even approaches the over, is if there is a slew of turnovers. Check the weather report on game day, bad weather can only help. UNDER. Go to www.benspicks.com and click Weather.

 

 

 

 

Loser - 4* Tennessee v ARIZONA --- OVER the Total --- The Titans lost a tough one at home last week. Tennessee out gained the pass happy Bengals, but couldn’t get it done in the second half. Coach Fisher is rebuilding on the fly, but the Tennessee secondary is piss poor and will be exploited. The Cards come off their bye week, 1-4 and may get QB Warner back from injury. The Arizona running game is stuck in neutral, a problem that has forced Coach Green to get vertical. It does not matter who starts, the ball reach the hands of their talented WR’s, Boldin and Fitzgerald. The Cards defense is another matter. The Arizona defense went from bad to worse, after it was hit with several injuries. Titan QB, and cagey veteran, Steve McNair will take advantage. It’s going to be a touchdown feast. Take the OVER and enjoy the rain of footballs in the desert.

 

 

Loser - 3* San Diego v PHILLY --- The Chargers are only 3-3 SU, but have been playing great, despite a tough schedule. RB Tomlinson completed the trifecta last week running, catching and throwing for a TD. The San Diego defense has held their own and the Chargers are a couple of bad breaks away from 6-0. The problem with the Chargers, at the moment, is their schedule. They have faced Pittsburgh and Oakland, off their respective Bye week, and now travel, for the second week in a row, to play a desperate Eagles squad, also off their Bye. Sounds like a recipe for a loss to me. The last time we saw the Eagles, Drew Bledsoe looked like the second coming of Troy Aikman. Philly played terrible, in Dallas, two weeks ago, and QB Donovan McNabb and company needed the added rest. The Eagles need to get back on track and are excellent coming off a week of rest, 9-2 ATS. I like the Eagles to bounce back, catching the Chargers on a down week. Take Philly.

 

Total = 3 - 2  for  +6*
 
The O/U's

 

  • New Orleans v ST. LOUIS OVER
Loser
  • Green Bay v MINNY OVER
Loser
  • Pittsburgh v CINCY UNDER
WINNER
  • Dallas v SEATTLE OVER
Loser

Total = 

1 - 3
 
Teasers

  (Teasers MUST include key numbers: 3, 6, 7, 10, 14, etc.)

 

  • Green Bay +7
WINNER
  • Pittsburgh +7
WINNER
  • Kansas City +7
No Play
  • WASHINGTON -6.5
WINNER
  • Buffalo +7
Loser
  • Baltimore +7
WINNER
  • Denver +7
WINNER
  • ATLANTA -2
No Play

Total = 

6 - 1
 
HD's v Opp-Turf

 

  • MINNY if Dog
No Play
  • HOUSTON
Loser
  • Cincy if Dog
No Play

Total = 

0 - 1
   

Closing Lines and Final Scores

 
The Skinny

Legend is available below.

 

NFL WEEK #7

SUNDAY OCTOBER 23, 2005

Potential BPR Plays in Bold

EST

Line

BPR

Play If

Notes – Trends ATS (Against The Spread)

411 New Orleans Saints

1:00

No

 

+13.5

4-1 O-U / 4-1 O-U v Rams / Many Injs

412 St. Louis Rams

Line

-9.5

-5.5

5-1 O-U /aft Mon / 1-5 / 4-11 F / QB Bulger ? /

413 Green Bay Packers

1:00

No

-10

-6

Aft Bye / REV for playoff loss / 15-3 O-U Opp-Turf /

LB, SS ?/ RB Green should be back /

414 Minnesota Vikings

Line

 

+14

1-4 O-U / 7-2 v Packers / 9-1 O-U v Packers /

D Many Inj / Culpepper sacked 24 times + 12 int /

Players may be suspended ? / Acquired G Fonoti

415 Indy Colts

1:00

16

-22

-18

Aft Mon / Bounce DOWN / 1-5 O-U / 4-2 / Indy can run up score, but will they, with New Eng on R next?

416 Houston Texans

45

 

+26

0-5 / 3-1 v Indy / FS, SS, OG, LB, DE ? / Pathetic team

417 Pittsburgh Steelers

1:00

43

 

+10

5-1 SU v Cin / 16-7 RD / 2 CB, WR Ward ?/ Ben Back!

418 Cincy Bengals

1

-6

-2

5-1 SU / 4-2 / 1-3 O-U H v Pitt / 2-4 O-U / Bad Run D

419 San Diego Chargers

1:00

47

 

+4

10-0-2 R / B2B R / bounce DOWN / 19-6 R v NFC /

2 CB, 3 OL ? / Traded G Fonoti to Love Boat Vikings

420 Philly Eagles

4

Even

+4

9-2 aft Bye / 2-8 H v AFC / 3-2 SU / Many Inj D-line

421 Kansas City Chiefs

1:00

43

-2

+2

3-2 SU / 4-10 R / 4-1 RD 3 or < / O-line healthy

422 Miami Dolphins

1.5

 

+6

2-0 H / 2-0 O-U H / 15-2 v AFC-W / avg 12 penalties /

Traded QB Feeley to S.D. / Seau, Taylor ?

423 Detroit Lions

1:00

35

-2.5

+1.5

4-13 R v AFC / 8-14 on grass / 3-31 SU R / Many Injs /

QB Harrington or Garcia ? / Garcia REV Clev.

424 Cleveland Browns

3

 

+6.5

7-2 H v NFC / Limited offense, can’t run /

425 San Fran 49ers

1:00

37

-3.5

+1

Aft Bye / 5-1 R v Wash / 4-1 O-U / 0-2 D > 10 /

MANY Injs / QB Smith 1st R start / Traded QB Rattay

426 Wash Redskins

11.5

 

+7.5

0-4 F > 10 / 8-1 v NFC-W / S, CB ?/ Will W, but cover?

427 Dallas Cowboys

4:00

45.5

 

+8.5

Aft B2B H W’s v Div/ Bounce DOWN / R W v Seattle LY / RB Jones, LB Nguyen ? / OT Adams, WR OUT

428 Seattle Seahawks

3

-4.5

Even

5-1 O-U / B2B H / REV / 0-4 v NFC-E / 2-7 HF / 2WR?

429 Buffalo Bills

4:15

40.5

-2.5

+1.5

0-4 D 3 < / Opp-Turf / 0-2 O-U R / REV / Running Ball

430 Oakland Raiders

3

 

+6.5

0-3 O-U H / 1-4 SU / B2B H / C, WR Moss ? /

431 Baltimore Ravens

4:15

31

 

+16

0-5 SU R / 2-3 SU / 1-4 O-U / S Reed ? /

432 Chicago Bears

1

-12

-8

B2B H / 1-4 O-U / 0-5 H v AFC / Rookie QB / 2 OL ?

433 Tennessee Titans

4:15

45

-3

+1

4-2 O-U / 7-3 RD 3 or < / Bad secondary /

434 Arizona Cardinals

3

 

+7

11-4 Aft Bye / 4-1 O-U / QB Warner or McCown ? /

Many Injs especially on defense /

435 Denver Broncos

8:30

46.5

-1.5

+2.5

Bounce DOWN / 3-7 Opp-Turf / 5-1 SU / 7-3 r v NFC /

CB, S SS ? /

436 New York Giants

2

 

+5.5

3-6 H v AFC / 5-0 H / B Peterson OUT /

BYE: Carolina, Jax, New England, Tampa

MONDAY OCTOBER 24, 2005

437 New York Jets

9:00

41

 

+14

B2B R / 5-13 D / 0-3 SU R / 2-4 O-U / 7-1 RD Mon /

2 CB, C, S ?

438 Atlanta Falcons

7

-10

-6

4-2 SU / 1-13 Mon / LB’s Shuffled, LB Hartwell Out /

 

 

Information Purposes Only - Not Intended For Anyone Under 21 Years of Age

The Legend

 

ATS – Against Spread

aft - after

bfr - before

[BPR] - Ben’s Power Rating

B2B – Back To Back

BOUNCE – Opp. result

D – Dog

Def - defense

DDD – Double Digit Dog

DDF - Double Digit Favorite

DIV - Division

F – Favorite

L - Loss

SAND - Sandwich game

 

H – Home

HD – Home Dog

HF – Home Favorite

HOME TEAM – In Capitals

LW – Last Week

LY – Last Year

N-DIV - Non Division

O/U – Over /Under

OFF – Offense

R – Road

REV – Revenge

SU – Straight Up

V - Versus

W - Win