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Picks 9-4 Run

Teasers 29-4 Run

 

Volume VII, Week 8

October 27, 2005

2005 Results

      

Week

Year to Date

%

Ben's Picks

+22

3-2 19-14-2 58%
Ben's Power Rating (BPR)

6-5

21-22-3

49%

 

Over/Unders

1-3 14-14-1 50%
Teasers 6-1 33-8 81%
HD's v Opposite Turf 0-1 7-7 50%
The Rant

      

        The Picks came in a positive 3-2 last week, for +6*. In the last 3 weeks I am on a 9-4-2 run for 69%. This is Week 8 and there have only been 2 losing weeks, thus far and those losers were only 2-3. This weeks winners were topped off by Pittsburgh, with a 5* win over the Bengals. Cincy was looking to solidify 1st place and establish their early season dominance. The only thing that was established, is the Bengals need to go back to the drawing board. Cincy is up and coming, but not ready for prime time. The Chiefs took the Red Eye, but the Dolphins were the ones crying, on a rare Friday night NFL game. The game was moved up due to the pending hurricane, but no one told the Dolphins they had to show up in mind and body. The Chiefs moved the ball, at will and Coach Saban was at a loss to stop it. The final winner was the UNDER, in the Detroit at Cleveland match up. Jeff Garcia got his first Lion start, and his Cleveland revenge, all in one neat package. The Cleveland offense is piss pour and it’s going to be a long year for Trent Dilfer and company. The losers included Philly winning, but failing to cover the 4 point spread. I hate when that happens. The Eagles shut down RB LaDainian Tomlinson, but still needed a lucky blocked field goal, run back for the win. Philly’s offense is now a one dimensional pass, pass, pass. The Chargers continued their string of bad luck. They have been, in the lead in the 4th quarter, of all their losses and can’t finish. They could be 7-0. The other loser was the OVER, in the Tennessee versus Arizona game. All hope went out the window, when QB Billy Volek left the game.

        The BPR (Ben’s Power Rating) finished 6-5 and is now, 15-10-3 the last 3 weeks. The winners included St. Louis, catching a lucky break to beat the Saints. New Orleans got jobbed by the Refs again, and if it wasn’t for bad luck, they’d have none at all. Indy kept perfect, after hitting a little speed bump in Houston. Chicago out muscled the Ravens, at home. Denver gave up a late TD, and the SU win, but covered the spread in New York. Eli is beginning to look like the next coming of John Elway, with his 4th quarter come backs. Is everyone positive he and Peyton are brothers. Detroit and San Diego round out the winners. The losers included, Green Bay taking an early lead, and forgetting to show up after half time, in Minnesota. San Fran, and QB Alex Smith, taking a beat down from the frustrated Redskins. Buffalo, totally embarrassing themselves in the Black Hole. Tennessee and Cincy round out the frustration. K.C. did not qualify as a play because the closing line did not meet the needed number. I again had to use the closing lines from the Stardust, instead of the Oklahoma Sports Monitor. It has been 2 weeks since the Monitor published their closing lines and I am beginning to get frustrated with their service. If it happens again, we will have to kick them to the curb.

        The “Teasers” have continued on their improbable run going 6-1 last week and stand at an impressive 81% for the year. The “O/U’s” went down 1-3 and the “HD’s” were 0-1. Good Luck, Ben

 

 
Potential BPR Plays

    Remember compare the BPR [Ben’s Power Rating] to the spread and if there’s a difference of 4 points or more, in your favor, then that’s a potential play. Below are the potential plays for this week; I have already added the 4 points. (Check individual game BPR's for any  line movements):

 

  • GIANTS -3 or less
WINNER
  • Green Bay +9.5 or greater
WINNER
  • Chicago +3 or greater
WINNER
  • CAROLINA -8 or less
WINNER
  • Cleveland +3.5 or greater
No Play
  • Miami -1 or less
WINNER
  • ST. LOUIS +2.5 or greater
WINNER
  • SAN FRAN +4 or greater
WINNER
  • Buffalo +2.5 or greater
WINNER
  • PITTSBURGH -13 or less
Loser

Total = 

8 - 1
 

Closing Lines and Final Scores

 
Ben's Picks

All trends are ATS (Against The Spread) unless otherwise specified.

WINNER - 5* Cleveland v HOUSTON --- The Browns have been giving a good effort, the problem is they don’t have the horses to compete. Trent Dilfer is an experienced QB, but Trent is a jockey not a horse. Put some talent around him and he can get the ball to the right weapons. Right now, he doesn’t have any weapons. The last 2 weeks the Browns have fallen behind modestly, but could not put a drive together to get back in the game. Dilfer has gone to the whip, but is responsible for 8 interceptions in the last 3 games. The Texans are a desperate squad. Their season started with great aspirations and thoughts of their first ever playoff birth. Houston now stands at 0-6 SU and is begging for any kind of positive outcome. The Texans have changed offensive coordinators and revamped their offensive line, but are still searching for their first win. QB David Carr has taken the brunt of the punishment, both mentally and especially physically (35 Sacks in 6 games). That all changes Sunday because the Texans will be facing a team just as bad as they are. Coach Capers knows his team has to get it done this week, because it may be another month before they get a chance to win a game (Jax, Indy, K.C., and St. Louis on deck). Take the desperate home team. Houston wins, finally.

 

 

Loser - 4* Jacksonville v ST. LOUIS --- The Jags are coming off their bye week, and it could not have come at a better time for RB Fred Taylor. The week off gave the workhorse added time to heal and he should be good to go here. The Jags are a very competitive team on both sides of the ball, and are looking forward to making a playoff push down the stretch. The Rams are another story, St. Louis escaped with an underserved win last week, after facing the Saints, without several starters, including QB Marc Bulger. Bulger is questionable for this game and the Ram defensive backfield is in a shambles. Jacksonville QB Byron Leftwich and the veteran Jags, will be able to take full advantage of the Rams defensive weakness. The ailing Rams offense will not be able to return the favor against a stout Jaguar stop unit. Add to the fact, the Jags are ready and rested, and you have the recipe for a solid road win. Jacksonville wins decisively.

 

 

Loser - 4* Oakland v TENNESSEE --- The Raiders came up big last week in a must have, home win, over the Bills. A gimpy Randy Moss came off the injury list and made his contribution to the team’s success. Say what you will about his attitude, but there aren’t many players who would’ve sacked up in that situation. Oakland took it to the Bills with RB Lamont Jordan, got out to a nice lead, and the anemic Buffalo passing game could not take advantage of the decimated Raider secondary. The Oakland secondary is now well past decimated and officially reeling, after it lost CB’s Charles Woodson and Derrick Gibson for 2 months. The Titans went to the desert last week, and could not get it done with Billy Volek at QB. Volek had to leave the game early, and any hope of a comeback went out the window with his departure. This week it looks as if QB Steve McNair will be able to return to his starting position. The veteran McNair will be able to take advantage of the Raider secondary, even without the services of WR Drew Bennett. The Titans are hungry, at home, and Steve Fischer is a much better coach than Norv Turner. I like the home team, in a high scoring affair. Tennessee.

 

 

 

 

 

Loser - 3* Chicago v DETROIT --- The Bears are off a home plucking of the once mighty Ravens. Chicago’s defense has been phenomenal and their offense does just enough to get the job done, with QB Kyle Orton and RB Thomas Jones. Detroit has been the recipient of several good breaks and are tied with the Bears for 1st place. The Lions finally got QB Jeff Garcia into the lineup last week and he was the difference in a hard fought personal revenge win over Cleveland. It looks as though the Joey Harrington era is now officially over in Detroit. These two squads have already tangled once this year, with the Bears laying a home whipping down on the Lions 38-6. Chicago was the recipient of 5 Harrington turnovers and made the Lions pay for their mistakes. That will not happen here. Garcia is a veteran QB and he will not be intimated by the Bears. The Lions are also though at home, and the Bears will be playing on the carpet. I like the Lions in a hard fought, low scoring victory. Take the Lions and spot the small #. Preferably less than 3.

 

 

Loser - 3* Baltimore v PITTSBURGH --- The Ravens are in a world of turmoil and playing terribly. Baltimore barely scrapped together 6 points last week against the Bears. The now must travel to Pittsburgh and face a heated division rival. LB Ray Lewis and the once proud Ravens are no more. Rumor has it, there is quite a bit of dissension in the crab cake city. Several players have been angling for new contracts including Lewis, CB Ed Reed and RB Jamal “Jailbird” Lewis. Word out of Baltimore is, Jamal Lewis has been dogging it, in an effort to voice his displeasure, and his production thus far, seems to justify that claim. LB Ray Lewis has also taken a step back from his position as team leader. He and Reed will not be playing in this game, due to injury. Reed and Lewis are literally the heart and soul of this defense. Now, with all that turmoil, they must face their division rival on Monday Night. The Steelers silenced the Bengals, and their fans, in a must win last week. Pittsburgh did what they do best, they pounded the ball on the ground, until the Bengals cried Uncle. The Ravens have no offense, and no chance of scoring any significant points against the stout Pittsburgh defense. In years past, Baltimore has been able to fight fire with fire and stop the Pittsburgh offensive machine. Not this time my friends. The Steelers will slowly and methodically pound the Ravens into submission, one carry at a time, until the Ravens utter “Never More, Never More”. Take Pittsburgh.

 
Total = 1 - 4 for -9*
 
The O/U's

 

  • Green Bay v CINCY OVER
Loser
  • Oakland v TENNESSEE OVER
WINNER
  • Cleveland v HOUSTON UNDER
WINNER
  • Tampa v SAN FRAN UNDER
WINNER

Total = 

3 - 1
 
Teasers

  (Teasers MUST include key numbers: 3, 6, 7, 10, 14, etc.)

 

  • CINCY -3
No Play
  • CAROLINA -2.5
WINNER
  • TENNESSEE +7
Loser
  • DALLAS -2.5
No Play
  • HOUSTON +3
WINNER
  • Jacksonville +7
No Play
  • NEW ENGLAND -2.5
No Play
  • PITTSBURGH -3
No Play

Total = 

2 - 1
 
HD's v Opp-Turf

 

  • ST. LOUIS if Dog
WINNER

Total = 

1 - 0
   

Closing Lines and Final Scores

 
The Skinny

Legend is available below.

 

NFL WEEK #8

SUNDAY OCTOBER 30, 2005

Potential BPR Plays in Bold

EST

Line

BPR

Play If

Notes – Trends ATS (Against The Spread)

195 Wash. Redskins

1:00

42

 

+11

4-2 / 4-2 O-U / 12-23 v Div / 8-4 R aft W / 2 CB ?

196 New York Giants

2.5

-7

-3

4-2 / 6-12 HF v Div / Bad Defense 3rd dwn / WR, 2LB ?

197 Green B. Packers

1:00

46

 

+9.5

1-5 SU / B2B R /15-6 O-U R v AFC /16-6 D /0-4 v AFC

MANY, MANY INJ, RB Green WR Ferguson OUT

198 Cincy Bengals

9

-5.5

-1.5

4-2 / 2-5 O-U / B2B H / Bounce UP / 7-3 H v NFC /

10-5 / C, LB, FS ?

199 Chicago Bears

1:00

32.5

-1

+3

1-4 O-U / 2-6 R v Div / 4-2 / Opp-turf / CB Baxter Out /

CHICAGO 38 – Detroit 6 on Sept 18 / 2FB, LB, OG ?

200 Detroit Lions

3

 

+5

REV / 2-7 O-U / 10-3 H v Div / Garcia QB / 4 WR ?

201 Minnesota Vikings

1:00

45

 

+16

Bounce DOWN / 1-4 O-U / 1-4 O-U v Carol / 2-4 /

Opp-Turf / 3-6 aft G.B. / LB, CB ?

202 Carolina Panthers

7.5

-12

-8

Aft Bye / 4-2 SU / 1-8 F > 6 / 2-12 HF / QB, RB, CB ?

203 Oakland Raiders

1:00

No

+3.5

2-4 SU / 0-6 RD 3 or less / 12-25 / 2 CB OUT / LB, C ?

204 Tennessee Titans

Line

 

+4.5

2-5 SU / 14-3 HF < 3 / McNair starts / 2 WR, OG, OT ?

205 Arizona Cardinals

1:00

40

 

+11.5

2-4 ATS + SU / 4-2 O-U / 0-4 O-U v Dallas / Opp-Turf/

5-18 R / 18-5 O-U R / 2OT, CB ? / QB who starts ?

206 Dallas Cowboys

8.5

-7.5

-3.5

5-1 v Cards / 16-8 aft R L / K Cut / RB, CB, LB ?

207 Cleveland Browns

1:00

37.5

+3.5

2-0 v Houston / 1-5 O-U / 2-4 SU / 5-1 v N-Div /

CB OUT / NO TD in 2 games / QB 8 INT last 3 games

208 Houston Texans

2

 

+4.5

0-6 SU / 1-5 / B2B H / 2-6 v NFC-North /

RB, WR, OG LB ? / Need W badly /

209 Miami Dolphins

4:00

41

-5

-1

Bounce UP / Aft Fri game / 16-8 r v N-Div / 2-4 /

WR, CB, LB ? / Coach Saban returns to LSU

210 New Orleans Saints

at Baton Rouge, La.

2

 

+9

2-5 SU / 7-14 F 3 or less / MANY INJ, 13 ?, 7 OUT /

Searching for places to practice / This is a H game ?

211 Jacksonville Jags

1:00

No

 

+5.5

Aft Bye / 4-1-1 / 4-2 O-U / Opp-Turf / 11-3 v N-Div /

5-0 R / RB Taylor Prob, 2 OL ? /

212 St. Louis Rams

Line

-1.5

+2.5

6-1 O-U ? B2B H / 5-14 / 5-12 v team off a Bye /

QB, 2CB, OG, DE ?/Coach Martz done forever w/Rams

213 Kansas City Chiefs

4:00

51

 

+8.5

Aft Fri game / 4-2 O-U V S.D. / 7-2 RD 3.5 to 7 / 4-2 /

1-5 RD v Div / CB OUT /

214 San Diego Chargers

6

-4.5

Even

3-0 v K.C. / 5-2 H v K.C. / 8-2 F / 2 OL, 3 LB, 2 CB ?

215 Tampa Bay Bucs

4:15

11

 

+4

5-1 SU / Aft Bye / 1-5 O-U / 0-4 O-U v S.F. /

RB Caddy Prob, QB Simms Starts

216 San Fran 49ers

36

Even

+4

5-1 O-U / 1-5 D > 10 / REV /1-5 SU /MANY INJ, QB?

217 Philly Eagles

4:15

43

 

+7.5

4-2 / 2-4 O-U / 5-10 v AFC / WR Owens, TE, K, LB ? /

Team can’t run /

218 Denver Broncos

3.5

-3.5

Even

5-2 SU / 4-2 O-U / 0-5 H v NFC / CB, SS ?

219 Buffalo Bills

8:30

44

-1.5

+2.5

1-11 O-U v N.E. / 0-3 R ATS + SU / B2B R / 2 OL ?

220 New England Pats

8.5

 

+5.5

Aft Bye / 5-0 O-U / 3-3 SU / 8-2 SU H v Buff /

5-1 v Buf / DE, CB ? / LB Bruschi ?

BYE: Atlanta, Indy, Jets, Seattle

MONDAY OCTOBER 31, 2005

221 Baltimore Ravens

9:00

33

 

+21

2-4 SU / 1-5 O-U / 6-3 O-U v Pitt /

LB Lewis, CB Reed, DE, WR ?

222 Pittsburgh Steelers

10

-17

-13

3-0 O-U H / 4-2 ATS + SU / 6-2 v Balt / 4-0 H v Balt /

 

 

Information Purposes Only - Not Intended For Anyone Under 21 Years of Age

The Legend

ATS – Against Spread

aft - after

bfr - before

[BPR] - Ben’s Power Rating

B2B – Back To Back

BOUNCE – Opp. result

D – Dog

Def - defense

DDD – Double Digit Dog

DDF - Double Digit Favorite

DIV - Division

F – Favorite

L - Loss

SAND - Sandwich game

 

H – Home

HD – Home Dog

HF – Home Favorite

HOME TEAM – In Capitals

LW – Last Week

LY – Last Year

N-DIV - Non Division

O/U – Over /Under

OFF – Offense

R – Road

REV – Revenge

SU – Straight Up

V - Versus

W - Win