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BPR On Fire 8-1 Last Week

23-11 Run

 

Volume VII, Week 9

November 3, 2005

2005 Results

      

Week

Year to Date

%

Ben's Picks

+13

1-4 20-18-2 53%
Ben's Power Rating (BPR)

9-1

29-24-3

56%

 

Over/Unders

3-1 17-15-1 53%
Teasers 2-1 35-9 80%
HD's v Opposite Turf 1-0 8-7 53%
The Rant

      Yes, you read that headline right, the BPR (Ben’s Power Rating) was an incredible 8-1 last week. The BPR is also 23-11-3 the last 4 weeks, for an impressive 67% winners. Just as I’ve been preaching to you all year, the 1st four weeks the numbers are just beginning to form, then from there on out, they become stronger and stronger. It’s going to be awful tough to beat these results though. The winners included the Giants, winning one for Wellington and taking it to the Redskins big time, 36-0. Green Bay, hung on for the cover against the Bengals. Did you see Bret Favre get stripped of the ball by that loony fan? Where’s Mike Curtis when you need him? Chicago, turned back the clock to 2001, and scored an interception TD in OT. Carolina, took it to the reeling Vikings. Miami, went to Baton Rouge and made mince meat out of the depleted Saints. St. Louis, rode a couple of breaks to a win over the Jags. San Fran surprised everyone with an outright win over the Bucs. Buffalo finishes up the Octagon, with a cover against the Patriots. Pittsburgh was the lone loser, but a big one, barely getting the win over the Ravens and not covering the big number. Cleveland was not a play. I again used the closing numbers at the Stardust, as reported by Don Best Sports. You can get those numbers at www.donbest.com, click odds, then archives. I will be using the closing numbers at the Stardust for the rest of the year. The numbers at the Oklahoma Sports Monitor became unreliable, because they were never reported in time for my newsletter.

        My picks went a dismal 1-4. Houston was the lone winner, finally breaking through with a win over Cleveland. The losers included Jacksonville, Detroit, Pittsburgh and Tennessee. The Titans got hosed big time by the Refs, as they tried to come from behind against the Raiders. Phantom flags were flying and the Titans were picking up the soap. Come on Zebras, since when do the Raiders get the benefit of the doubt?

        The “O/U’s” got back to the positive with a 3-1 outcome. The “Teasers” went 2-1 as most plays fell by the wayside, due to line moves. The “HD’s v Opp-Turf” went 1-0. Keep an eye on the HD’s this week, there are several plays.

        Last week there were several games that made some major line moves. Pittsburgh opened at –8.5 and closed at –13, after several major injuries were reported. I bring your attention to this so that you will not only look at the “Potential BPR Plays”. Please, also take a close look at the lines, and the BPR numbers, on page 4 every week, and see if the line movements add any additional games to the Potential Plays list. It’s also that time of year, so don’t forget to start checking the weather reports every week. The best place to do that is at my website, www.benspicks.com. You can’t lose, it’s Free! Thanks and Good Luck, Ben

 

 

 
Potential BPR Plays

    Remember compare the BPR [Ben’s Power Rating] to the spread and if there’s a difference of 4 points or more, in your favor, then that’s a potential play. Below are the potential plays for this week; I have already added the 4 points. (Check individual game BPR's for any  line movements):

 

  • Detroit -2 or less
Loser
  • JETS +8 or greater
No Play
  • CLEVELAND -6 or less
No Play
  • Chicago -6 or less
Tie
  • Cincy -7 or less
WINNER
  • TAMPA +3 or greater
No Play
  • Houston +8.5 or greater
WINNER
  • SAN FRAN +8.5 or greater
Loser
  • GREEN BAY +8.5 or greater
No Play
  • Philly +3.5 or greater
No Play
  • Indy -7 or less
WINNER

Total = 

3 - 2 - 1
 

Closing Lines and Final Scores

 
Ben's Picks

All trends are ATS (Against The Spread) unless otherwise specified.

 

WINNER - 5* Houston v JACKSONVILLE --- The Texans broke their maiden last week, in a gutsy come from behind win over the hapless Browns. Houston is only 1-6 SU for the year, and any hopes of a good season have been lost, but this team has not quit playing. Dom Capers’ job is on the line and he will not let this team go into the dumper quietly. The Jags handed the Rams several presents last week and paid for them dearly. Jacksonville is a defensive, grind it out team and they normally don’t put up many points. The Jags like to get ahead, run down the clock and go home with the win. Jacksonville doesn’t cover big numbers and this one is an absurd 13½ points. Now, it really gets good, last year the Texans beat the Jags outright, not once, but twice. Houston obviously knows how to play the Jags and you get 13½ points to top it off. Am I dreaming, or is it really this easy? Take Houston and the generous spot.

 

 

 

WINNER - 5* Oakland v KANSAS CITY --- Oakland reaped the benefit of several Phantom Flags, in Tennessee last week, and hung on for an undeserved win. The Raiders have now won two in a row and almost seem respectable, at 3-4 SU for the year. Don’t be fooled my friend. The men in black have put up points against two of the weakest defenses in the league and this has masked their own defensive shortcomings. The Raiders have lost 2 starting CB’s to injury and last week, Steve McNair put up some decent numbers in a feverish comeback, while missing 3 starting WR’s. Now, they travel back to back, to face the high powered Chiefs in a bad mood. Kansas City faced the Chargers last week, moved the ball up and down the field, but didn’t get it done in the Red Zone. That won’t happen this week. K.C. is at home, facing a depleted Oakland defense and looking to get back into the playoff hunt. The Chiefs have already beaten the Raiders this year, 23-17, and that was when Oakland was healthy. Now, it’s time for the other tomahawk to fall. The Chiefs are on the warpath and scalp the helpless Raiders. The match up is perfect, K.C. Big.

 

 

 

Tie - 4* Chicago v NEW ORLEANS --- The Monsters of the Midway are back, and an improbable interception return for TD in OT last week, had the Bears partying like it was 2001 all over again. Chicago stands at 4-3 SU and atop the frail NFC-North. The Chicago defense, as expected, are playing their hearts out for Coach Lovie Smith. The surprising part of the equation is, the Bears offense is finally coming around. The Bears lost their starting QB, again this year, and all hope was seemingly lost for the season. Enter Rookie QB Kyle Orton. Orton played in a pro style offense in college and, after some minor growing pains, has become a reliable single caller in the Windy City. He is aided by the emergence of RB Thomas Jones. Jones is a stud, Orton gets the job done, and the Chicago defense is stellar. That adds up to wins in my book. The Saints season from hell is slowly circling the pooper and gaining speed. Things have gone from bad to worse and I don’t know where to begin. The team has been literally on the road for over 2 months, their owner wants to move the team and got into a shoving match with a fan last week, they have been hit with a slew of player injuries, the refs have jobbed them for 2 wins, and they have a rep for throwing in the towel on their coach. That my friend, is a recipe for disaster. You do the math; + + + versus - - -, all adds up to a Chicago win.

 

 

 

 

Loser - 3* Carolina v TAMPA --- UNDER the Total --- The Panthers are fresh off an impressive thrashing of the “rudderless” Vikings last week. Carolina stands at 5-2 SU and tied with the Bucs for first place in the man-ly NFC-South. The Cats have been steady, on both sides of the ball, and usually play close to the vest. The Bucs, and Kid QB Chris Simms, drooled all over themselves last week, in an embarrassing road loss to the Division 1A Niners. Simms was not ready for prime time and stud DE Simeon Rice was sent home before the game for missing a team meeting. Rice will be back and is fired up to atone for his indiscretion, Simms is back and can’t wipe the drool off his own face. We get the best of both worlds, good defense and bad offense. Throw in the fact that the Panthers and Bucs have gone Under in 7 of their last 9 meetings and it smells like an UNDER to me. The Total is presently 36.5.

 

 

 

WINNER - 3* Indy v NEW ENGLAND --- The Colts hit the Bye week in a full gallop 7-0 last week. The Indy offense has been impressive, when needed, and now their defense is starting to make a reputation of their own. The Colts are an impressive team, and have been for several years, but seem to always meet their match in Foxboro. Last year, an impressive season was cut short by the Superbowl Pats in the crisp air of January. This year the Colts have seemingly put aside the individual stats for W’s. They know, to get over the hump, they have to beat the Pats at their own game, and make the road to the Superbowl go through Indianapolis. Did I spell that right? The Colts will never have a better opportunity then now. New England barely beat the mediocre Bills last week and their defense is full of holes. The Patriots have not been their normally dominant selves this year. New England has been hit by the injury bug two years in a row. Belichek has been patching the holes, but you can only patch up a pair of old jeans so many times, before your ass begins to hang out. The Pats ass is now hanging out for all the world to see, and ready to get kicked. Peyton Manning and Tony Dungy finally get over. Take Indy and spot the points. It might get ugly.

 
Total = 3 - 1 - 1 and +10*
 
The O/U's

 

  • Detroit v MINNY UNDER
Loser
  • Oakland v K.C. OVER
Loser
  • Seattle v ARIZONA OVER
WINNER
  • Pittsburgh v GREEN BAY UNDER
WINNER

Total = 

2 - 2
 
Teasers

  (Teasers MUST include key numbers: 3, 6, 7, 10, 14, etc.)

 

  • MINNY +7
No Play
  • San Diego -2
WINNER
  • Tennessee +10
No Play
  • K.C. Even
WINNER
  • NEW ORLEANS +10
No Play
  • TAMPA +7
No Play
  • Houston +20
No Play
  • WASHINGTON +7
No Play

Total = 

2 - 0
 
HD's v Opp-Turf

 

  • JETS
WINNER
  • BALTIMORE
Loser
  • MIAMI
Loser
  • SAN FRAN
Loser
  • ARIZONA
Loser
  • NEW ENGLAND
Loser

Total = 

1 - 5
   

Closing Lines and Final Scores

 
The Skinny

Legend is available below.

 

NFL WEEK #9

SUNDAY NOVEMBER 6, 2005

Potential BPR Plays in Bold

EST

Line

BPR

Play If

Notes – Trends ATS (Against The Spread)

407 Detroit Lions

1:00

1.5

-6

-2

7-2, but 0-6 SU v Minny / 1-3 O-U R / 2 LB, S, CB, WR, QB Garcia ?

408 Minnesota Vikings

37

 

+10

2-5 / 2-4 O-U / 2-8 O-U H v Detroit / 9-1 SU H v Det / 6-2 HD / QB Johnson starts, CB Smoot ?

409 San Diego Chargers

1:00

6.5

-4

Even

5-2-1 / Revenge / 14-4 RF / 7-0 R v N-Div / 2 LB, SS, CB, OT ? /

410 New York Jets

41

 

+8

0-8 O-U Aft BYE / 2-5 / 3-0 v Chargers / C, LB OUT /

411 Tennessee Titans

1:00

39

 

+10

5-3 O-U / 3-0 O-U v Clev / 2-6 SU / 3 WR, CB, FS ?

412 Cleveland Browns

3

-6

-2

2-5 SU / 1-6 O-U / 2-4 HF 3 or < / 1-6 H / 2 RB, CB ?

413 Oakland Raiders

1:00

51.5

 

+8

4-1 R v K.C. / 3-1 O-U v K.C. / Usually close v K.C. / Revenge / 2 CB OUT, C, OG, DE, LB ?

414 Kansas City Chiefs

4.5

-4

Even

5-0 SU v Oak / Chiefs 23 – OAK 17 on Sept 18 / 2 CB, s, OG, DE ? /

415 Chicago Bears

4:00

3

-10

-6

B2B R / Bounce DOWN / 1-5 O-U / 1-5 RF 3 or > / 6-20 O-U v N-Div / RB, OG ?

416 New Orleans Saints

at Baton Rouge, La. (Grass)

34

 

+14

5-1 v Chic / 5-2 O-U / 2-6 SU / 2 TE, 2 LB, 2 WR ?

417 Cincy Bengals

1:00

3

-11

-7

5-1 v Balt / 2-6 O-U / 6-2 SU / 7-0 R / FS, LB ?

418 Baltimore Ravens

36.5

 

+15

Aft Mon / 2-5 O-U / 1-5 D 3 or < / 2-5 SU /  7-1 H v Cincy / DE, WR, CB Reed, LB Lewis ?

419 Carolina Panthers

1:00

1.5

 

+4

7-1 v Tampa /2-7 O-U v Tampa / 4-0 SU v Tampa / 4-1 O-U / 3-3-1 but 5-2 SU /

420 Tampa Bay Bucs

36.5

-1

+3

Bounce UP / 1-6 O-U / 5-14 O-U H / 5-2 SU / 11-2 HD/ Game for 1st place / FS ?, QB Simms starts /

421 Houston Texans

1:00

37

 

+8.5

5-1 and 2-0 SU v Jax / 0-3 O-U v Jags / 1-6 SU /

422 Jacksonville Jags

13.5

-4.5

Even

2-6 H v Div / 5-2 O-U / 8-3 / Rush passer /

423 Atlanta Falcons

1:00

2.5

-2

+2

5-2 SU / 3-8 R v AFC / 0-5 v N-Div Aft Bye /

424 Miami Dolphins

40.5

 

+6

3-0 O-U H / 7-3 HD / LB Seau, CB, DB, ?

425 New York Giants

4:00

10

-4.5

Even

Bounce DOWN / 3-1 v Niners / 3-10 F > 6.5 /0-6 SU R/

426 San Fran 49ers

42

 

+8.5

2-6 D > 6 / 5-2 O-U / MANY INJ, 2 QB ??????????

427 Seattle Seahawks

4:00

4

-4

Even

3-14 SU aft Bye / SEATTLE 37 – Ariz 12, Sept 25 / 5-2 SU / 5-2 O-u / 7-2 R v Div / 2 WR ?

428 Arizona Cardinals

44

 

+8

5-2 O-U / 2-5 SU / 3-0 O-U v Seattle / 2-1 SU v Seattle/ Revenge / 5-2 H v Div / Many Inj, WR Boldin ?

429 Pittsburgh Steelers

4:15

6

-4.5

Even

Aft Mon / 8-2 R / 5-2 SU / 6-19 F v NFC /S ?, QB Prob

430 Green Bay Pack

42

 

+8.5

1-6 SU / 2-4 O-U / 8-1 HD / MANY INJ, RB Green ?

431 Philly Eagles

8:30

No

+3.5

4-3 SU, but 2-5 ATS / 11-4 v Wash / 7-0 SU v Wash / B2B R / Many Inj Defense, WR Owens ?

432 Wash Redskins

Line

 

+4.5

Bounce UP / 4-3 SU / 0-3 O-u v Philly / 4 DL ?

BYE: Buffalo, Dallas, Denver, St. Louis

MONDAY NOVEMBER 7, 2005

433 Indy Colts

9:00

3.5

-11

-7

5-1 O-U Mon / 0-3 v AFC Mon / 2-5 O-U/ REVENGE!

434 New England Pats

48

 

+15

5-2 Mon / 9-1 SU H v Indy / 7-2 D 3 or < / 5-1 O-U / 8-0 v Indy / MANY INJ

 

 

Information Purposes Only - Not Intended For Anyone Under 21 Years of Age

The Legend

ATS – Against Spread

aft - after

bfr - before

[BPR] - Ben’s Power Rating

B2B – Back To Back

BOUNCE – Opp. result

D – Dog

Def - defense

DDD – Double Digit Dog

DDF - Double Digit Favorite

DIV - Division

F – Favorite

L - Loss

SAND - Sandwich game

 

H – Home

HD – Home Dog

HF – Home Favorite

HOME TEAM – In Capitals

LW – Last Week

LY – Last Year

N-DIV - Non Division

O/U – Over /Under

OFF – Offense

R – Road

REV – Revenge

SU – Straight Up

V - Versus

W - Win