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Week 4 Results

Volume IX-Week 5

October 11, 2007

2007 Results

      

Week

Year to Date

%

Ben's Picks

+5

3-2 13-11-1 54%
Ben's Power Rating (BPR)

3-6

18-17-1

51%

Teasers 4-3 15-12-1 56%

Over/Unders

2-2 12-8 60%
HD's v Opposite Turf 1-0 9-4 69%

Closing Lines and Final Scores

 
Ben's Picks

All trends are ATS (Against The Spread) unless otherwise specified.

  • Loser - 5* Tampa v INDY --- Dungy facing former team, but Indy missing many weapons. Tampa playing tough, Garcia makes things happen and doesn’t make mistakes. Close game, parlay the UNDER.

 

  • Loser - 4* Cleveland v NEW ENGLAND --- The Browns come to play and QB Anderson stretches the field. Pats spotting big wood, leave the backdoor open for former DC Romeo Crennel.

 

  • WINNER - 4* San Diego v DENVER --- Bolts under siege. Broncos no longer dominant at home and terrible against the run. LT makes a statement.

 

  • WINNER - 4* Dallas v BUFFALO --- Cowboys full of themselves, just like their owner. Buffalo getting players back on defense, QB Edwards an upgrade, Bills play their Super Bowl.

 

  • WINNER - 3* Atlanta v TENNESSEE --- Falcons improving. Titans aren’t ready to spot big numbers.

 

 
Picks Results = 3-2 for +2*
 
Teasers

  (Teasers MUST include key numbers: 3, 6, 7, 10, 13, 14, etc.)

 

·        Detroit +10 Loser

·        Atlanta +14 WINNER

·        Seattle +10 Loser

·        Cleveland +22 WINNER

·        Tampa +15 Loser

·        San Diego +7 No Play

·        Chicago +7 WINNER

·        BUFFALO +15 WINNER

 
Teaser Total = 4-3
 
The Over/Under's

·        Jax v K.C. UNDER WINNER

·        Seattle v PITTSBURGH OVER Loser

·        Tampa v INDY UNDER Loser

  • Dallas v BUFFALO OVER WINNER
 
O/U Results = 2-2
 
HD's v Opposite Turf Teams
  • ST. LOUIS WINNER
 
Home Dog Results = 1
 

Closing Lines and Final Scores

 
Potential BPR Plays

    Remember compare the BPR (Ben’s Power Rating) to the spread, in the chart below, and if there’s a difference of 4 points or more, in your favor, then that’s a potential play. Below are the potential plays for this week; I have already added the 4 points. (Check individual game BPR's for any  line movements):

 

  • Carolina -5.5 or less
  • HOUSTON -5.5 or less
  • Tampa +1 or greater
  • GREEN BAY -9.5 or less
  • Jax Pick or +
  • Cleveland +11.5 or greater
  • San Diego +1.5 or greater
  • BUFFALO +9.5 or greater
  • TENN. -9 or less
  • Arizona -5.5 or less
  • SAN FRAN -3 or less

 

 

 

 

NFL WEEK 5

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2007

Potential BPR Plays in Bold

EST

Line

BPR

Play If

Notes

407 Carolina Panthers

E: 1:00

44

-9.5

-5.5

QB Delhomme ? / Defense playing terrible

408 New Orleans Saints

3

 

+13.5

After bye / Missing RB / Need W bad

409 Jacksonville Jags

E: 1:00

2

-4

Pk

After Bye / Offense bad in red zone

410 Kansas City Chiefs

36

 

+8

Bounce DOWN / Game should be close

411 Detroit Lions

E: 1:00

46

 

+8

Bounce DOWN / Offense Pass , Pass, Pass

412 Wash. Redskins

3.5

-4

Pk

After Bye / QB Campbell needs to step up

413 Atlanta Falcons

E: 1:00

40.5

 

+17

Getting better

414 Tennessee Titans

8

-13

-9

After Bye / Spotting big #

415 Miami Dolphins

E: 1:00

43

 

+13.5

Fish allowed Oak 299 yds rushing, nuf said

416 Houston Texans

5.5

-9.5

-5.5

Many injuries

417 Seattle Seahawks

E: 1:00

39

 

+8

Revenge for SB XL.

418 Pittsburgh Steelers

5.5

-4

Pk

Haven’t beat anyone good

419 Cleveland Browns

E: 1:00

48

 

+11.5

Hanging tough / QB Anderson an improvement

420 New England Pats

16.5

-7.5

-3.5

Big #, watch out for the backdoor

421 Arizona Cardinals

E: 1:00

3.5

-9.5

-5.5

Bounce DOWN / QB’s still rotating

422 St. Louis Rams

40.5

 

+13.5

QB Bulger, RB Jackson OUT / O-line in a shambles / Tough to bet on

423 New York Jets

E: 1:00

41

 

+7

Bad versus the pass / Don’t have the talent

424 New York Giants

3

-3

+1

Put it together LW, can they keep it going?

425 Tampa Bay Bucs

E: 4:00

46

-3.5

+1

Defense playing great / Garcia keeps them in games

426 Indy Colts

10

 

+7.5

Many, Many major injuries

RB Addai, WR Harrison, S Sanders

427 San Diego Chargers

E: 4:15

42

-2.5

+1.5

Need to play a complete game / LT on a mission

428 Denver Broncos

1

 

+6.5

Don’t have the same H field advantage / Haven’t beaten anyone good / 2 seconds from 0-4

429 Baltimore Ravens

E: 4:15

3

 

+11

Getting old right before our eyes / B2B R

430 San Fran Niners

35.5

-7

-3

QB Dilfer faces former team / Offense limited

431 Chicago Bears

E: 8:15

41

 

+17.5

Bears getting back some defensive players and will be growling and hungry

432 Green Bay Packers

3

-13.5

-9.5

Bret, Bret, Bret enough already!

BYE: Cincy, Minny, Oak, Philly

MONDAY, OCTOBER 8, 2007

435 Dallas Cowboys

E: 8:30

10

-5.5

-1.5

Wade returns, has he found his headset yet?

436 Buffalo Bills

44

 

+9.5

Getting players back on defense / QB Edwards the real deal / tough out at home

 
BPR Results
 Winners - Carolina, SAN FRAN, BUFFALO
 Losers - TENN, HOUSTON, Cleveland, Arizona, Tampa, GREEN BAY
No Plays - Jax, San Diego
Total - 3-6
 

Information Purposes Only - Not Intended For Anyone Under 21 Years of Age

The Legend

ATS – Against Spread

aft - after

bfr - before

BPR - Ben’s Power Rating

B2B – Back To Back

BOUNCE – Opp. result

D – Dog

Def - defense

DDD – Double Digit Dog

DDF - Double Digit Favorite

DIV - Division

F – Favorite

L - Loss

SAND - Sandwich game

 

H – Home

HD – Home Dog

HF – Home Favorite

HOME TEAM – In Capitals

LW – Last Week

LY – Last Year

N-DIV - Non Division

O/U – Over /Under

OFF – Offense

R – Road

REV – Revenge

SU – Straight Up

V - Versus

W - Win