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Final Results

Volume IX-Super Bowl XLII

February 4, 2008

2007 Results

      

Week

Year to Date

%

Ben's Picks

-32

1-0 47-52-2 48%
Ben's Power Rating (BPR)

1-0

65-60-1

52%

Teasers 1-1 51-40-2 56%

Over/Unders

0-1 38-40-1 49%
HD's v Opposite Turf 0-0 22-24 48%

Closing Lines and Final Scores

 
Ben's Picks

All trends are ATS (Against The Spread) unless otherwise specified.

5* Giants v NEW ENGLAND ---  The truth is, this has been a very difficult game to handicap and I wanted to digest as much information as possible before I made my selection. Now, I’m ready.

    As you all know, the line is presently New England -12 points so, not only do you have to decide if the Pats will win, but also if they’ll cover. The best way I could think of to help me make my decision was to review the full replay of the Pats, 38-35, Week 17, win over the Giants. What better way could there be to see how these 2 opponents match up?

    In that December 29 contest, the Giants got out to an early lead. The Pats then rallied back, but the G-Men regained the lead at halftime, 21-16, on a 2-minute drill. That drive was very telling; Eli was calm, cool, collected and did a masterful job. The other observation I made was the Giant pass rush got to Tom Brady and knocked him down several times. I know Brady is the best in the business, but no QB likes to get hit.

    In the second half, the Giants took their first possession to the house and opened up a 12-point lead about 5 minutes into the 3rd quarter. The Patriots then began to exert their will. Brady began making quicker reads, getting rid of the ball before the Giant rush could get to him. That tactic worked to perfection as the Pats scored 3 straight TD’s. On the flip side, to combat Eli Manning, the Pats brought a little more heat, forcing an interception. That interception led to New England’s final TD and a 38-28 lead with 4:36 left on the clock.

    The game was not over yet as Manning, facing a fierce Patriot pass rush, methodically drove the G-Men down the field. They hit pay dirt, with 1:04 left on the clock, bringing the Giants within 3 points. That was still enough time for the on-sides kick but the Patriots recovered and ran out the clock.

    The stats told the story as neither team could run the ball very well, but the Pats got the sole turnover, held a 100-yard passing advantage and a very telling 12 extra minutes in time of possession.

    So, what does this all tell us? First, it’s obvious the Patriots are the better overall team and, barring a rash of unforeseen turnovers or a major injury, New England will win the game and rewrite history.

    Second, we get down to the more important question; will the Pats cover the spread? This is where it gets a little dicey, 12 points is a huge number and the Pats, although winning, are only 1-7 against the spread down the stretch. The Giants, on the other hand, are 7-1 against the spread and proven road warriors, winning 10 in a row, including 3 playoff games. The first place I always look for an answer is my power rating. It has been phenomenal in the playoffs, going 5-1 against the spread this year and a strong 31-17 over the last 9. I have the Patriots at -8, that’s a full 4 points in the Giants favor.

    So, this is my story and I’m sticking to it, I see a closely fought game in the 1st half. Neither team will be able to establish their running game and Giant defensive guru, Steve Spagnoulo, will devise a plan to limit speedster Randy Moss. The game will then turn into a Brady v Eli affair. Although Eli has been stellar, Brady will slowly gain the upper hand, dinking and dunking to Wes Welker and company, giving the Patriots a modest lead at halftime.

    In the second half, after the teams adjust their game plans, it will be more of the same. Brady will methodically move the Pats down the field and New England will gain a comfortable lead midway through the 4th quarter, approximately 13 to 17 points. That’s where Eli comes in and calmly takes the G-Men down the field slipping them in the backdoor. The Pats regain the ball and are content to run out the clock. Everybody’s happy, the Pats go 19-0, the Giants make a game of it and Benny goes home with a big smile on his face because the G-Men cover the 12 points.

    Now a word of caution, although this is the Super Bowl and the biggest game of the year, it doesn’t have to be your biggest wager of the year. This scenario all hinges on Eli taking care of the ball and not making any turnovers. If the Giants lose the turnover battle, this game could just as easily turn into a rout. The Pats are that good. The bottom line here is, make a small wager and enjoy the game. Thanks, Ben

 

·        5* OVER the Total --- These teams combined for 73 points in iffy weather, now on a fast track.

 

New England Patriots 34 – New York Giants 26

 
Pick Results = 1-0
 
Teasers

  (Teasers MUST include key numbers: 3, 6, 7, 10, 13, 14, etc.)

·        Giants +17

·        OVER 49

 
Teaser Results = 1-1
 
The Over/Under's

See above

O/U Results = 0-1
 
HD's v Opposite Turf Teams

None

Home Dog Results = 0-0
 

Closing Lines and Final Scores

 
Potential BPR Plays

    Remember compare the BPR (Ben’s Power Rating) to the spread, in the chart below, and if there’s a difference of 4 points or more, in your favor, then that’s a potential play. Below are the potential plays for this week; I have already added the 4 points. (Check individual game BPR's for any  line movements):

 

·      New York Giants +12 or greater

 

 

 

 

NFL SUPER BOWL XLII

SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 3, 2008

Potential BPR Plays in Bold

EST

Line

BPR

Play If

Notes

New York

     Giants

6:20

54

 

+12

 

New England

     Patriots

12

-8

-4

 

 
BPR Results
 Winners - Giants
 Losers
No Plays
BPR Results - 1-0
 

Information Purposes Only - Not Intended For Anyone Under 21 Years of Age

The Legend

ATS – Against Spread

aft - after

bfr - before

BPR - Ben’s Power Rating

B2B – Back To Back

BOUNCE – Opp. result

D – Dog

Def - defense

DDD – Double Digit Dog

DDF - Double Digit Favorite

DIV - Division

F – Favorite

L - Loss

SAND - Sandwich game

 

H – Home

HD – Home Dog

HF – Home Favorite

HOME TEAM – In Capitals

LW – Last Week

LY – Last Year

N-DIV - Non Division

O/U – Over /Under

OFF – Offense

R – Road

REV – Revenge

SU – Straight Up

V - Versus

W - Win